Rather than expand production in North America, Subaru is taking a contrarian route and expanding their manufacturing in Japan – even as everyone is scrambling to get out.

A few days ago, we talked about rumors of Chinese production of Lincoln cars, rumors which Ford denies. Chinese media are blasé about the Dearborn denial. New reports are coming out, and Carnewschina says there is more meat to them. The new reports still insist on a start date in 2015 at Ford’s new Hangzhou plant. And they claim to know what cars will be made, including a new Lincoln ‘compact SUV’.

Optimism sure ain’t what it used to be. Introducing its latest survey of auto industry executives [ PDF], Booz & Co. proclaims that “optimism is skyrocketing,” and that “a new wave of optimism is overtaking the U.S. auto industry.” They’re not wrong, but for those used to the pre-bailout days of unabashed optimism dressed up as analysis, the “new optimism” is remarkably guarded. And it’s all relative to the pessimism that was beginning to set in when the industry began to realize that the “old optimism” was wildly at odds with the slow-motion market recovery.

So, just how optimistic is the “new optimism”? Which companies have the most reason for optimism? What do industry executives worry about most? When do they expect a Chinese invasion? The answers to these questions and more after the jump.

The dreaded huge wave of cheap Chinese exports – is still not happening. Instead, China’s Changan exports factories.

Infiniti formally opened its new world headquarters in Hong Kong today. This marks “the first time the city has been selected for the headquarters of a car manufacturer,” as Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post notes. A staff of approximately 100 will trade Nissan’s swank building in Yokohama for even swanker digs in the Citibank Tower in Hong Kong’s high-rent Central district. Heretofore under Nissan’s wings, Infiniti makes its own nest in a dedicated headquarters for the first time in the brand’s history. Its mission: Triple Infiniti sales by 2016.

Rumors of Made-in-China Lincolns have been swirling for a while. The Lincolns never came, but the rumors are back. Carnewschina has picked up rumors in Chinese automotive media that whisper that by 2015, Lincoln cars will be made in China.

A fight between two makers of cheap Chinese delivery vans will spill over to America – in more ways than one. China’s Jonway is a small carmaker from Zhejiang Province. Usually known for cheap pickup trucks, Jonway launched the Wuxing onto China’s small van segment. That segment is ruled by Wuling, the company that has a joint venture with GM. Jonway is also ruled by an American company: Californian ZAP bought 51 percent of Zhejiang Jonway Automobile Co. Ltd. in 2011.

Two days ago, Bloomberg brought harrowing news:

“Chinese dealers are struggling with the rising number of unsold cars that’s threatening to deepen price cuts. Dealerships for Honda Motor Co., Chery Automobile Co., BYD Co. and Geely carried more than 45 days of inventory as of the end of April, exceeding the threshold that foreshadows debilitating price cuts.”

Automotive News made the matter the opener of its Friday video newscast. Apparently, the sky is soon to fall in China. The situation is even more dramatic elsewhere.

With a new Volvo XC90 finally getting a re-design in 2014 (after 12 years on the market!), the old platform, like so many old European cars, will move on to become a Chinese market car – though Geely has grand aspirations for the venerable Swedish SUV.

Chery has asked the Chinese government for its blessing regarding a joint venture with Jaguar Land Rover worth $1.9 billion.

Some of you are probably tired of the continuous reporting on car sales in China. Executives of the world’s biggest carmakers think otherwise. Without China, their companies would be also-rans. General Motors for instance says it sells more cars in China than back home. January through April, GM reports 972,369 sales from the Middle Kingdom, versus 821,707 in America. Getting a firm hand on sales in the world’s largest car market is important, but difficult. The tear out from a table published by Reuters illustrates this vividly – to the numerically unchallenged.

With a planned Chinese joint-venture between Chery and Subaru now really, honestly dead in the water, Subaru will look to the United States for sales growth, while importing cars to China for the next few years.

Just-Auto issued a breathless press release with the hot news that the nasty Chinese government has said no to a joint venture between Japan’s Subaru and China’s Chery. If this sounds like deja vu to you, then you are an ace analyst. Send your CV to just-auto.

Vehicle sales in China were up a tepid 5.19 percent in April, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) reports. From January to April, overall auto sales, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, fell 1.33 percent year-on-year to 6.42 million units. Want better news? No problem!

News of strong April results of key players in the world’s largest auto market China may indicate than China’s rest and recuperation period is over. SAIC’s auto sales are up 12.6 percent, says Reuters. GM reports record sales from China, up 11.7 percent for the month. Toyota told Reuters that its April sales in China were up a whopping 68 percent. Is the Middle Kingdom turning the corner to another episode of hyper growth? Let’s take a look.

TTAC alum Justin Berkowitz has been checking out the trademark applications lately, and he’s uncovered what looks like a change in name for Lamborghini’s ridiculous shopping trolley for Russian May-September rent-a-rides.

Forbes predicts that the U.S. will bypass China this year as the world’s largest auto market. Forbes does that because it employs as its China expert one of the lousiest forecasters in the business. Regular Forbes columnist Gordon G. Chang published a book in 2001, titled “The Coming Collapse of China.” In it, he predicted that China would implode by 2006, if not earlier, due to the mass of non-performing loans. China did not implode. Instead, non-performing loans brought the U.S. banking system and the world to the brink in 2008. In 2006, Chang wrote the book “Nuclear Showdown.” In it, he predicted that North Korea would rain nuclear missiles on Japan. Has not happened either. Now, Chang predicts that China will no longer be the world’s largest auto market when the year is over, and that the title will go back to the U.S.

By making this prediction, Chang shows that America is a land of opportunity: People who can’t count and aren’t really bright can become famous columnists at Forbes.

Beijing authorities have slapped organizers of the 2012 Beijing Auto Show with a “serious reprimand” for featuring scantily-clad models.

Volkswagen’s SEAT has been a bit luckless recently. The victim of the Mediterranean malaise seeks to improve its odds by exporting cars to China. Lacking new models to introduce, Seat showcases a new culinary delight: Blondes on a stick.

When it comes to car blogging, China has long bypassed the rest of the world. Even much larger sites than TTAC look like midgets compared to the Chinese giants. Nothing shows that more drastically than the Beijing Auto Show.

Coda Automotive withdrew a Department of Energy loan application after two years of waiting. The $334 million loan was supposed to have gone towards establishing an assembly plant in Columbus, Ohio, but for now, production will continue in China.

Chinese customers will be able to help themselves to not one but two long-wheelbase Infiniti M sedans., just in case up-and-coming plutocrats don’t want an Audi A6L.

Coda Automotive, a Southern California start-up that assembles EVs with Chinese components, announced at today’s Beijing Auto Show that it would partner with the Chinese OEM Great Wall to develop a new, lower-cost EV. Says Coda CEO Phil Murtaugh (who you might remember as a key character in American Wheels, Chinese Roads) explains in a press release

[INSERT JUVENILE QUIP ABOUT THIS CAR’S NAME AND HOW MUCH IT SOUNDS LIKE ANATOMY]. Just kidding. We’re not that silly. Here’s a look at the Fiat Viaggio aka the Dodge Dart for China.

Although the nameplate says “Sylphy”, this is more than likely the 2013 Nissan Sentra, set to replace t he dreadful current generation car.

Our man Bertel Schmitt is en route, all set to cover the Beijing Auto Show for the next two days. By our count, there are over 70 debuts, with many of them being Chinese market products; concept cars, older vehicles re-issued and manufactured in Chinese JV factories and obscure concept cars. A complete list, with a brief description can be read at just-auto.com for anyone really interested in the Brilliance Jinbei Large Sea Lion Camper or the HaiMa Yao.

Hybrids are a tough sell in China. Honda and Toyota want to change this. Honda wants to change it so bad that it will provide its core hybrid car technologies to other Chinese automakers, in addition to its joint venture partners, The Nikkei [sub] learned today.

After getting a $1 billion “investment” from both GM and the Australian government, Holden will be starting their first post-funding project; d esigning two new cars for the Chinese market.

Curves aren’t typically the signature look of a Lamborghini, which prevents me from making any cheesy jokes about the company’s SUV “revealing its curves” like any other sex-starved blogger would.

Renault/Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn wanted to announce it Monday or Tuesday in person in Beijing. On the other hand, the upcoming production of Infiniti cars in China leaked last week, after Nissan’s worst kept secret had kept the Chinese rumor mill in motion for more than a year. After Gallic shrugs all around, Nissan confirmed today that two Infiniti models will be manufactured locally in China from 2014. Ghosn will have to find something else to feed the media on Monday. Dim sum perhaps?

What could be more China-centric than a high-performance Audi RS Q3 concept? Not much.

Some 200,000 EVs are already on the road in China, says Reuters. Teslas they ain’t.

GM and its Chinese partner SAIC finally have worked out a deal that would get GM its coveted golden share back. In its darkest hour, GM had sold one percent of its 50:50 joint venture to SAIC, for the chump change of $85 million. Later, it became known why the number was so low: SAIC co-signed a note of $400 million. GM needed the cash to save its Korean arm. GM itself was facing bankruptcy, which happened only little later. Now, the share is coming back. For a hefty price.

The Beijing Car Show is the one to watch for Brazilian car aficionados. Though we drool and slobber over at what’s shown at NAIAS or in Paris, Brazilians must look elsewhere to see what’s coming to local showrooms. The New Delhi car show had some cars of interest, now it’s the Beijing show a Brazilian must watch.

Case in point, the all-new JAC SII.

When Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will come to Germany on April 23, he will open the Hannover Fair and will visit old friends at nearby Volkswagen. Volkswagen will have a present for China’s outgoing leader: Volkswagen will build another factory in China. What is strange are the factory’s size and location.

JAC is the Chinese company that caused worldwide, well, at least American indignation with a fake F 150. JAC will premiere something at the Beijing Auto Show that is not prima facie fake: A sports car. According to Carnewschina, JAC will show the JAC Heyue SC coupe, or what Carnewschina calls “the biggest surprise for the Beijing Auto Show.”

Debuting at the Beijing Auto Show on April 23rd is the Fiat Viaggio. If it looks familiar in these teaser shots, that’s because it’s a Dodge Dart with a different badge.

The Nikkei [sub] must have been having intimate chats with sources high up in Nissan’s tower at the Yokohama waterfront again.

Prematurely perturbing press people at Nissan, the Tokyo wire reports that a new factory will be constructed in China, and that Infiniti cars will be built at yet another factory in China. In the meantime, Reuters cultivated sources at Renault and says that Renault will finally finalize a deal to produce cars in China.

Save for some French cabinet ministers, you aren’t likely to find any of the global elite tooling around in French luxury sedans. Citroen is hoping to reverse this trend with a made-for-China luxury limo, seen above. Dubbed the “DS Numero 9”. We suppose that’s French for “Panamera lookalike”.

China’s March numbers are in and they are – ok. The first quarter is down a little, March is up a little. People who were hoping for a return of unbridled growth are just as disappointed as those who had wished the pox of a monster crash on China.

The Chinese car market isn’t dead yet. China had delivered a few lackluster months and was promptly feted by the I-told-you-so crowd as the 21st century version of the limits of growth. Suddenly, the Chinese car market shows surprising signs of resilience. Sales data for March are not here yet, but TTAC’s patent-pending Chinese sales oracle has spoken: GM China.

In the alleged police state China, speeders are not hunted down by testosterone-driven cops. Hey get fined through the mail. A system the Chinese have copied from Europe. Some Chinese have taken to using a little camouflage.

Daimler and BYD unveiled their joint EV brand Denza today. They literally just unveiled the brand. The cars will be unveiled at the Beijing Motor Show in the last week of April. They should have kept everything covered and hire some professionals.

A year ago, I penned a passionate defense of the new direction that was being taken by Lotus. In the piece, I chastised enthusiasts for their armchair criticism of Lotus management and their resistance to bringing out new vehicle to replace the nearly two decade old Elise (which would hit that mark by the time a replacement rolled around in 2015) and their lack of faith in the stewardship of CEO Dany Bahar, the man who helped Luca di Montezemolo turn Ferrari around. Now it looks like I’ll have to retract those words and admit I was wrong.

Daimler’s R&D chief Thomas Weber told Germany’s Wirtschaftswoche a big secret: Daimler will show an electric car at the Beijing auto show that opens in the last week of April. Of course, TTAC readers already knew the secret. But it is always nice to have independent verification.

Real Chinese brands are losing market share to joint ventures. The Chinese government wants to keep up appearances, and strongly suggests to joint ventures with foreigners that they should start a separate “Chinese” brand. Latest to say “hao” (yes, ok, jawohl) is Daimler. Its joint venture with BYD to make electric cars in China will dispense with making electric Mercedes first and will instead immediately head to second base and launch a Chinese brand.

After a rash of crashes involving pricey supercars in China, a bus company in Jinghua, China, is taking action. It teaches its bus drivers:

a.) How to spot a super car

b.) How much that super car costs.

Not in order to raise brand awareness amongst its bus drivers.

From the Times of India to Jalopnik, all have the harrowing story that the Chinese government did “ban the word “Ferrari” from online searches.” According to the reports, a young man was killed on Sunday after his Ferrari 458 was split in two in Beijing. The reports say he was the son of senior Communist party official. According to the reports, that caused the word “Ferrari” to vanish from Internet searches in China. The Daily Mail wrote yesterday: “All references to the Italian supercar company were mysteriously removed from China’s online search engines in the early hours this morning.“ Jalopnik explains in its trademark shallow detail “why Chinese censors banned ‘Ferrari’ from internet search.”

I happened to be in China since Sunday. I volunteer life, limb, and personal freedom to put the story to the test.

After years and years and years of rumors and premature announcements, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has finally, honestly, cross your heart and swear to fry, “finalized a joint venture agreement with Chery Automobile Co to manufacture and sell vehicles in China,” Reuters reports.

China has been the engine under record earnings at German automakers such as Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW. China helped GM offset its heavy losses at Opel, and provided more than 2 million cars that earned GM the (some say undeserved) title of world’s largest automaker. All of them have invested heavily into added capacity in China. All of them have reason to be worried.

NBA star Jeremy Lin of the New York Knicks will endorse Volvo cars, after signing a deal with the company. Lin, who graduated from Harvard and took an unconventional path to the NBA, has Taiwanese-born parents, is extremely popular in China, where basketball has a strong following.

Allegedly, China’s enthusiasm for new cars has waned. Don’t tell that to a Shanghainese. In Shanghai, exuberant carbuying has been dampened by limiting the amount of license plates, which are auctioned off. In March, prices of new license plates hit a record high. The average bid for a license plate was 58,625 yuan (9,380 U.S. dollars), Xinhua reports.

Geely has chosen their battery technology partner for their new plug-in hybrid vehicle, and their supplier, A123 Systems Inc., may not be a familiar name to everyone, but their wares have been used by other vehicles like the Fisker Karma.

Chinese media has written for a while that Volkswagen and its Shanghai joint venture with SAIC will do a new “Chinese” brand called “Tianyue” by the Chinese, or “Tantus” by the longnoses. Only Carnewschina did some research and tells us what those names really mean. Careful, do not read on if you are offended by “mature” content, or could be fired for reading such.

China has become famous for its golden and pink cars. Now, there is some kind of a backlash. Or maybe word of Jack Baruth’s lime green Audi S5 has reached China? Can’t possibly drive an Audi S5 in gold, pink, or lime green in China after Jack’s frog-colored Audi was flogged on eBay. Even China has some standards. Instead of Audis in garish colors, there now are black and white Audis. “So what?” you say. I said black and white Audis.

Western media widely reported ( and still reports) that the Chinese government will only allow Chinese cars to be bought by its functionaries.

Not so. The rule exists in draft form only,and has been published to elicit public feedback. However, in a disturbing development, China Daily reports that “nearly 90 percent of respondents in a survey are in favor of China’s domestic independent-brand automobiles for governmental use.” It’s not that 90 percent said so. It’s the ominous fact that it is being published in a government-owned paper.

If the survey is correct, then Chinese citizens want to look down on the car choices of their rulers. The Chinese themselves are widely in favor of foreign cars. 70 percent of all cars bought in China are foreign branded. The appetite for foreign branded cars remains high,as the following tables show.

China’s February new car sales are in, and they are whatever you want them to be. They are up a lot if you look at February alone. They are down if you look at the first two months of the year. They are confused for those who don’t know where to look.

The Chinese auto press now routinely whacks the innovation by replication that is still prevalent in the Chinese car industry. An egregious case: Zoyte copied the Suzuki Alto nearly 1:1 for the Zoyte Z100, which is expected to debut at the Beijing Auto Show in April. Nevertheless, an unrepentant Zoyte was caught by Carnewschina testing the new Z100 side-by-side with the Alto (top. The cars are not being tested on ice. It is an attempt to obscure the location where the pictures were taken.)

Global sales of Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz car brand rose a whopping 20.3 percent in February compared to February 2011, Reuters says. A lot of this growth comes from a country already pronounced a basket case by some: China.

Every country and culture seems to have to go through its fads and fashions. China does it at breakneck speed. Last year, it was gold. Now, the Bling Dynasty is succeeded by The King. Elvis-style pink cars suddenly are all the rage, and who else than Carnewschina to keep track of them? Don’t fancy Chinese and The King? There you go: Suddenly, cars are pinkos in Red China.