UBS has cut Fiat’s rating from “buy” to “neutral”. UBS cites its cautious views on car demand in Europe and Brazil as well as heavy trucks and machinery, the areas in which Fiat are strongest. UBS notes that Sergio Marchionne’s grand scenario of spinning off Fiat’s auto division is still the company’s goal, and PSA Peugeot-Citroen as a “likely candidate”. In the near term, UBS thinks that Fiat’s market share price of €10 per share is fair, as a consolidated manufacturer. Another reason why UBS cut Fiat: Chrysler. The article finishes with a stark warning that the “value of Chrysler to Fiat has been cut to 1 euro from 2 euros.” In the interest of fairness, we shouldn’t listen too much to the stock market as these are the same people who proclaimed that the banking sector was in rude health, right up until they asked for a bailout, catching the market “by surprise”. Especially considering Sergio Marchionne is the non-executive vice chairman of UBS’s board of directors. These caveats aside though, it’s important to note that Chrysler has realistically gotten Fiat no closer to the magical 5m annual sales number it needs to spin off its auto business, nor has it added real value. And Marchionne is apparently eying up PSA as the next target in his mad march to world domination. What a gas.

Looks like GM may have done some creative accounting after all – at least according to Swedish Government and their consulting firm KPMG. As we’ve reported the last couple of days, Saab’s rescue has been hanging by a thread due to questions around the company’s financial situation prior to the start of the financial crisis. Saab needs the EU to approve the Swedish Government’s guarantee of an EIB loan to Koenigsegg group if the deal is going to go through. If Saab, during the summer of 2008 – when the financial crisis started – were not in sound financial condition, the EU cannot, will not, approve Swedish government’s guarantees to the EIB loan, and the loan will not be granted. And reports from di.se yesterday almost laid that possibility to rest, with reports that GM had lost $ 5.100,- on each Saab-car sold during the last 8 years. Now, as commentator dlfcohn and others at ttac, as well as several commentators at di.se have pointed out, creative accounting can be useful in major corporates i.e to avoid taxes in tax-heavy countries. This, apparently (at least according to Swed.gov’t/KPMG) was the case with GM/Saab.
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Reuters reports that Aabar Investments is considering increasing their stake in Daimler AG from 9.1% to 15%. Aabar is already Daimler largest shareholder and this move, should it happen, will further cement this position. The Abu Dhabi investment fund paid $2.7 billion for the 9.1% stake when the share price €20.77. Since then, the share price of Daimler has rocketed 77% and on the news of Aabar mulling a bigger stake, the share price rose by 4.4% to €35.81 per share. Daniel Schwarz, an analyst with Commerzbank AG said “It’s a positive signal that a large shareholder is showing a long term commitment”. But the strength of the fund’s love for Daimler doesn’t just extend to this increased stake.

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Swedish business site di.se has done some numbercrunching, and figured out that GM has lost SEK 35,000,- (eq aprox $ 5,100, at the current exchange rate) on each Saab sold the last 8 years. As many of TTAC’s readers have pointed out in various comments, GM never made money on Saab. Truth is; they lost a total of SEK 39 billion (3.9 billion Euros) during their ownership, according to di.se’s analysis . The last 8 years has been heavy; a loss of SEK 32,2 billion, or 35.000,- kronor on each Saab sold. That’s $ 5.100,- on each car. This year alone GM has had to take an SEK 6.2 billion cost on the ailing carmaker, SEK 5.2 of those are amortization of debts.  This is why it’s crucial for Koenigsegg Group that the EU commission rules that Swedish government’s guarantees on Koenigsegg’s loan from the EIB are not subsidies. But since Saab has been on life support for so long, it would be almost impossible to defend Saab as a healthy company, and without the Swedish government’s guarantee, the financial plan from Koenigsegg Group will fail. Maybe they can argue that when it comes to Saab, there are no subsidies, just business as usual.

According to the Financial Times General Electric’s in-house virtual bank, GE Capital, has agreed to give JLR (Jaguar-Land-Rover) new financing secured by vehicles as they come off the production lines. Cash flow wise, JLR will get money almost instantly upon completion of production rather than later on down the road when the dealers and/or their banks pay for the vehicles. GE Capital says it looks forward to helping other European automakers free up working capital by borrowing against “underutilised assets”. This new kind of financing gives companies a powerful incentive to build cars for the “Sales Bank” even if no firm dealer commitments are in hand. Rut Row!

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Check out GM’s complete video of the conference here.

Saab has not had an easy path to salvation. The Koenigsegg Group has had to provide finances, agree to a price and conditions with GM, get loan from European Investment Bank (EIB),and  coax the Swedish Government into guaranteeing loans. Now there’s one more hurdle left, and it’s the same challenge that scuppered the Opel to Magna deal: The EU.
Reports of recent weeks in the Scandinavian media have told us that the EU is thinking the Saab deal over. And when mighty EU thinks, things take time… So, what are they thinking about? They have to decide whether Swedish Govt’s guarantees to SAAB’s loan in the European Investment Bank should be considered subsidies or not. EU countries are not allowed to subsidize unprofitable companies – and the EU has some questions on SAAB’s and Koenigsegg Groups financial plan, and Saab’s results prior to the reconstruction. So the whole thing might stretch into next year until – or if at all – the deal is closed. Incidentally, questions about the anti-competitive nature of the German government’s support of the Opel to Magna deal killed that sale already. But does GM want Saab back as badly?

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As part of its eleventh-hour decision to hold onto its Opel subsidiary, GM has made a 200m euro ($300 million) payment on its German “bridge loan” reports the WSJ. GM Europe Chief Financial Officer Enrico Digirolamo announced that the nationalized automaker will repay the remaining 400m euros ($600 million) by the end of the month. The German government greeted the news with something roughly akin to a Gallic shrug. “If General Motors and its subsidiary are in the position to restructure through its own strength and financing, that’s good news,” German Ec0nomy Ministry spokesman Felix Probst opined. Translation: we’ll take it. Which is just as well, given that GM’s Chairman of the Board returned the money with some seriously sarcasm attached. “I think we won’t be needing money from your government for Opel,” Edward Whitacre said, according to Merkur newspaper. “If Mrs. Merkel declines help, we will pay for it ourselves. Maybe this make will your chancellor happy.” Yes, well, meanwhile, GM’s European operatives had the begging bowl at the ready. “The restructuring of Opel for long-term sustainability requires involvement and financial support from all stakeholders, including employees and governments. We remain in discussions with governments to engage our plan.”

Were you looking forward to GM’s first post-bankruptcy financial report, set to be released on Monday? We sure were. Right up until we read that the earning statement won’t be compliant with a little something called Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Automotive News [sub] reports that GM will use so-called “managerial accounting,” (do we have an accountant in the house?) until Q1 2010 results are filed using SEC-approved “fresh start accounting.” The SEC is apparently aware that GM is still transitioning to the post-bankruptcy accounting system, and has reportedly approved GM’s timetable for compliance. Meanwhile, GM’s 3rd quarter results will be announced in two parts, for the period it was in bankruptcy (June 1- June 9) and after (June 10- September 30). GM’s spokesperson is kind enough to explain:

In some cases, it’s not comparable to do a year-to-year comparison. Anything with a cost component to it, won’t be comparable. For sales and revenue, it will be comparable. It’s going to be kind of complicated this time around. There’s no way around that. It’s not a standard situation.

Don’t you just hate it when that happens? You try and you try to be transparent, and then your financial results come out all unintelligible because it takes the better part of a year to switch accounting systems. No wonder Whitacre is downplaying talk of a Summer 2010 IPO.

“I don’t see anyone bleeding to death,” Sergio Marchionne told reporters and analysts a week ago, when asked what he thought of Chrysler’s current dealer body. He might be about to change his tune. The US Treasury will stop guaranteeing GMAC’s floorplan loans to Chrysler Group dealers on the 21st of this month, and the bailed-out lender has marked over 100 dealers to be cut off. According to the Detroit Free Press, these dealers had all survived Chrysler’s dealer consolidation efforts in bankruptcy, indicating that their sales business is relatively steady. But because of huge investments made with Chrysler Financial loans at the height of the real estate market, these dealers owe more than their dealerships are worth. Chrysler Financial is winding down its business, and it refuses to give up the first right to the property as collateral. Because GMAC is now a bank holding company and requires more collateral on loans than it previously did, it wants land and buildings put up as collateral that are already securing old Chrysler Financial loans. Of course those old loans were for renovations made as part of Chrysler’s “Project Genesis,” which dealers had little choice but to participate in. If those Chrysler-mandated investments meant certain dealers were not going to qualify for floorplanning, they should have been culled during bankruptcy. Which is why NADA is appealing to Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne on behalf of the threatened dealers. And maybe if Marchionne takes a look into this meatgrinder, he’ll see a few dealers stuck between giant, bailed-out businesses, bleeding to death.