QOTD: Has the Global Vehicle Market Recovered?
Is the global vehicle market in recovery following the 2020 downturn? Data analysts GlobalData seem to think the market is firmly in recovery mode, according to their latest report.
Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Wins In Photo Finish
We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking. It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals.
Grade The Analysts: Conservative Bankers Trounce Exuberant Specialists
This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault.
Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Crowned Most Reliable Analyst Of 2012
If your life, career, wealth, or all of the above depend on forecasting the auto market with precision and reliability, then you can do no better than securing the services of Edmunds’ chief analyst Jessica Caldwell. Last year’s winner of the coveted “TTAC 11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”) does it again: Jessica Caldwell wins the TTAC 12, closely followed by her perennial antagonists, Jesse Toprak of TrueCar and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.
TTAC congratulates Jessica Caldwell and her team to her second coronation in a row.
Dark Horse Best Analyst Of The Month
Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month’s sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who missed, and who is not even in the ballpark. Analysts who only give a SAAR and nothing else are being punished in this ranking. Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM? Thankfully, the number of lazy analysts diminishes each month. And here are this month’s winners:
Grade The Analysts: Banker Blows Away Super-Sandy
Super-Sandy rained into the sales plans of automakers and destroyed the predictions of America’s best analysts. All, except one: Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank’s star automotive analyst.
Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Beats Toprak By A Hair
RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)1.9%0.7%8.4%14.43.6%4.5%8.1%2Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)2.5%1.3%8.1%14.62.3%6.0%8.3%3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)3.7%2.2%6.1%14.52.9%10.1%13.0%4Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)1.0%1.6%4.4%14.43.6%9.5%13.1%5John Sousanis (Ward’s)4.6%4.3%8.1%14.62.3%11.1%13.4%6Joseph Spak (RBC)4.0%4.9%8.0%14.52.9%11.2%14.1%7Patrick Archambault (Goldman)2.2%4.2%4.8%14.62.3%11.9%14.2%8Brian Johnson (Barclays)-1.5%-1.4%5.5%14.34.3%10.2%14.5%9Alec Gutierrez (Kelley)4.0%1.7%5.6%14.34.3%10.4%14.7%10Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)3.3%2.0%4.4%14.43.6%11.2%14.8%11Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)5.0%4.0%6.0%14.52.9%13.3%16.2%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA15.00.4%300.0%300.4%13George Magliano (IHS)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%14Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%16Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA14.43.6%300.0%303.6%Average2.8%2.3%6.3%14.50Actual1.5%-0.2%11.5%14.94
The public may have been surprised by the very strong showing of the market and the not so strong showing of GM and Ford when the September sales came in yesterday. Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar weren’t surprised at all. They called the market with high precision. Separated by only 0.2 points, Caldwell made first, Toprak second, followed far behind by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.
Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Carries August, Hits SAAR Bullseye
August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.
Grade The Analysts: Deutscher Banker Wins While Fleet Sales Trip Up Real-Timers
They called the market correctly, but they did bet on the wrong horses. Bloomberg polled the usual assemblage of analysts regarding the final tally of July new car sales, and the analysts did not disappoint when it came to the overall market. On average, they nailed the July SAAR of 14.1 million. When it came to the Detroit 3, they were way too optimistic. And it just so happens that the chief car analyst of Germany’s largest bank is the winner of this month’s Grade the Analysts.
Grade The Analysts: Audacious Apprentice Takes Top Spot
RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1John Sousanis (Ward’s)12.0%8.0%18.0%14.00.6%6.1%6.7%2Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)8.7%4.4%19.0%13.91.3%10.3%11.6%3Brian Johnson (Barclays)6.4%7.1%18.0%13.82.0%10.9%12.9%4Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)7.3%1.4%20.0%13.91.3%13.7%15.0%5Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)9.1%2.9%17.0%13.82.0%13.4%15.4%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)5.2%4.4%19.0%13.82.0%13.8%15.8%7Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)7.0%1.4%19.0%13.82.0%15.0%17.0%8Patrick Archambault (Goldman)6.2%2.0%17.0%13.82.0%17.2%19.2%9Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)8.2%2.4%14.0%13.72.7%17.8%20.5%10Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)6.0%0.3%16.0%13.63.4%20.1%23.5%11Joseph Spak (RBC)7.7%5.9%NA13.91.3%108.5%109.8%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.00.6%300.0%300.6%13Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.00.6%300.0%300.6%14Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA13.91.3%300.0%301.3%15Christopher Hopson (IHS)NANANA13.82.0%300.0%302.0%Average7.6%3.7%18.0%13.8Actual15.0%7.1%20.3%14.1
Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted June light vehicle sales to come in much lower. All analysts except one: John Sousanis of Ward’s predicted that this will be a good month. He nearly nailed the SAAR, and came closest to reality in his OEM forecasts.
Grade The Analysts, May 2012: Exuberance Causes Big Fail
RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)13.0%14.0%36.0%14.33.8%9.0%12.8%2Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)17.0%11.0%33.0%14.55.2%11.0%16.2%3Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)11.0%9.4%40.0%14.23.0%13.6%16.6%4Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)11.0%16.0%42.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%5Patrick Archambault (Goldman)15.0%10.0%38.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)13.0%12.0%44.0%14.44.5%17.0%21.5%7Brian Johnson (Barclays)16.0%15.0%42.0%14.44.5%19.0%23.5%8Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)18.0%11.0%41.0%14.44.5%20.0%24.5%9John Sousanis (Ward’s)15.0%15.0%45.0%14.66.0%21.0%27.0%10Joseph Spak (RBC)16.0%10.0%NA14.44.5%108.0%112.5%11George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA14.23.0%300.0%303.0%12Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.33.8%300.0%303.8%13Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%14Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%Average15.0%12.0%40.0%14.4Actual11.0%13.0%30.0%13.8
The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday.
Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment.
Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Scores A SAAR Bulls Eye And Wins
Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot.
Grade The Analysts: The Bankers Have It
March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles have been degraded to also-runs.
Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Wins Race Against 15.1 Million
RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)-5.0%18.0%32.0%14.44.64%18.15%22.79%2Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital)-3.6%7.1%32.0%14.35.30%20.34%25.64%3Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)-6.1%14.0%27.0%14.35.30%20.94%26.24%4Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)-2.6%11.0%26.0%14.35.30%21.44%26.74%5Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)-5.9%13.0%27.0%14.25.96%21.74%27.70%6Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)-3.9%5.6%25.0%14.53.97%29.14%33.12%7Joseph Spak (RBC)-5.2%8.0%24.0%14.16.62%29.04%35.67%8Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)-4.0%8.7%22.0%14.16.62%29.14%35.77%9Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)-5.8%5.6%25.0%13.88.61%31.04%39.65%10Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)-5.6%3.4%22.0%14.16.62%36.04%42.67%11Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NA NA NA14.35.30%300.00%305.30%12Matthew Stover (Guggenheim) NA NA NA14.35.30%300.00%305.30%13Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA NA14.25.96%300.00%305.96%14Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NA NA NA14.25.96%300.00%305.96%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA14.07.28%300.00%307.28%16Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NA NA NA14.07.28%300.00%307.28%17George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NA NA NA13.88.61%300.00%308.61%Average-4.8%9.4%26.0%14.2Actual1.1%14.3%40.4%15.1
The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.
February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million.
Grade The Analysts: Shape Up, Ladies & Gentlemen!
The year begins with our analysts in utter disarray. Reality destroyed all projections, even the finely honed real-time forecasting models of TrueCar, Edmunds and Kelley Blue Book are left as smoking wrecks. In the end, familiar names won our January Grade The Analyst, but only because others finished much worse.
Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Carries Month And Year
Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC 11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”).
Grade The Analysts: Edmund's Caldwell Does It Again
November was a rough month on our analysts. The surprisingly strong showing of Chrysler threw everybody’s aim off. Real-time powered Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds takes the top spot again – but with a degree of precision that would have landed her back in the field in the preceding months. She won because the others did worse.
Grade The Analysts: Edmund's Caldwell Beats Bankers, Truecar
US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being. 13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. As for the Detroit 3, General Motors disappointed at 2 percent (and threw the analysts off), Ford and Chrysler came in as expected at 6 and 27 percent respectively. And how did our analysts fare?
Analysts Agree: October Will Be Good – But How Good Are The Analysts?
Analyst GMFord Chrysler SAARGeorge Magliano (IHS Automotive) NANA NA12.9Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)5.5%4.1%24.0%13.0Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NANA NA13.1Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power) NANA NA13.1Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)7.2%7.5%20.0%13.2Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANA NA13.2Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)8.7%6.5%35.0%13.2Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANA NA13.3Brian Johnson (Barclays)4.3%8.8%19.0%13.3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)7.1%1.8%NA13.3Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NANA NA13.4Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)4.7%7.4%33.0%13.4Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)6.9%8.0%27.0%13.4Seth Weber (RBC)9.2%8.6%36.0%13.4Average6.7%6.6%28.0%13.2
Today, October new car sales will be announced, and they are expected to be good. Analysts polled by Bloomberg show rare unity: They expect a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate of sales (SAAR) of 13.2 million on average, and the spread is only 500,000. Likewise, analysts agree that Ford and GM will each add around 6 percent in sales, whereas Chrysler will jump by around 28 percent.
Grade The Analysts: Bullseye Bankers Trounce TrueCar, Edmunds
US car sales rose a solid 10 percent in September to a little over one million. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is reported as 13.1 million by Autodata. General Motors is up 20 percent, Chrysler shot up 27 percent, Ford brought up the rear with a 9 percent gain. And how did our analysts fare?
TTAC Grades The Analysts: TrueCar Wins In August
This is round two of TTAC’s “Grade The Analysts”. Last time, we graded only on how closely analysts hit the SAAR number ( table provided by Bloomberg.). If we would have done this this time, all would have received an A or better. The guesses were THAT close. The overall SAAR for August was 12.1 million, and none of the analysts did bet on less than 11.9 or better than 12.3. Instead of giving them all gold stars, we made it a bit more interesting.