Grade The Analysts: Edmund's Caldwell Does It Again

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

November was a rough month on our analysts. The surprisingly strong showing of Chrysler threw everybody’s aim off. Real-time powered Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds takes the top spot again – but with a degree of precision that would have landed her back in the field in the preceding months. She won because the others did worse.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell ( Archambault (Goldman Sachs)5.1%11.0%43.0%13.41.69%52.90%54.59%3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)7.9%9.6%43.0%13.41.69%53.30%54.99%4Seth Weber (RBC)7.6%13.0%40.0%13.32.42%52.60%55.02%5Jesse Toprak ( Ceraso (Credit Suisse)6.3%9.2%38.0%13.41.69%58.50%60.19%7Rod Lache (DeutscheBank)6.5%6.1%31.0%13.41.69%68.40%70.09%8Brian Johnson (Barclays)9.2%10.0%17.0%13.50.95%80.20%81.15%9Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA13.60.22%300.00%300.22%10Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA13.50.95%300.00%300.95%11Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA13.50.95%300.00%300.95%12Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANANA13.41.69%300.00%301.69%13Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA13.41.69%300.00%301.69%14George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA13.32.42%300.00%302.42%Average7.4%10.0%37.0%13.4Actual7.0%13.0%92.0%13.6

The November SAAR was guessed with high precision. The average of our analysts said 13.4 million, and the final result was 13.6. As for the Detroit automakers, those who had the guts to guess them (the only way to win this game) were in the ballpark on GM, were too pessimistic on Ford, and were off by a few universes on Chrysler: The best projection for Chrysler was less than half of the real result.

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds wins with a dead-on prediction of the SAAR and the best of the bad guesses for the Detroit 3. She shares the podium with two financial analysts, Patrick Archambault of Goldman Sachs, and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies. Real-time data are no insurance against embarrassment: Jesse Toprak of TrueCar lands on place 5.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Dartman Lot of laws I don’t like, didn’t like and I’m sure that there will be more. I do believe in the American Way, rule of law, truth and Justice for all. I vote, donate, and volunteer. I try to obey the law, rules and regs etc., don’t always succeed, and when caught in a transgession I willingly accept the consequences. “Ignorance of the law is no excuse”
  • FreedMike Cool. Keep 'em coming.
  • Jalop1991 Proof that people are stupid. "Hey, here's a $7500 point of sale discount! EVERYONE gets it! See? So the number we show you on the sale order is $7500 less than it would have been otherwise!" but we all know that $7500 was already added onto the price up front to start with.Because people are stupid.I hear plenty of people talk about "I wouldn't pay MSRP for a car under any circumstances. I have to have a discount." Ummmm....OK. Here's the new MSRP. Here's your discount. "That's better!" The same guy would turn down a brand new Corolla for $3000 if that were the MSRP.We all know these cars are overpriced at least $7500. This whole thing is a handout to the auto companies, using morons as the intermediaries.
  • Jkross22 Fugly. I don't care how good it drives or how fast it is.
  • Kwik_Shift_Pro4X Making it even more unaffordable and less desired. See what happens.