Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Carries August, Hits SAAR Bullseye

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt
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grade the analysts caldwell carries august hits saar bullseye

August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell ( Sousanis (Ward’s)1.6%11.0%16.0%14.40.9%12.4%13.3%3Alec Gutierrez (Kelley)3.4%9.6%9.6%14.40.9%14.4%15.3%4Jesse Toprak ( Johnson (Barclays)5.5%7.0%8.2%14.22.3%16.3%18.6%6Joseph Spak (RBC)2.4%8.0%9.0%14.31.6%17.6%19.2%7Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)0.7%9.7%8.9%14.31.6%17.7%19.3%8Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)3.9%8.7%6.1%14.31.6%18.3%19.9%9Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)1.0%3.4%16.0%14.03.6%20.6%24.2%10Patrick Archambault (Goldman)1.2%7.8%4.0%13.94.3%24.0%28.3%11Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.50.2%300.0%300.2%12Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.31.6%300.0%301.6%13Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.22.3%300.0%302.3%14George Magliano (IHS)NANANA14.13.0%300.0%303.0%15Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA14.03.6%300.0%303.6%Average3.0%8.5%9.9%14.2Actual10.0%13.0%14.0%14.53

Caldwell called the unexpectedly high SAR of 14.5 million exactly (save for a rounding error). She also came pretty close to the actual showing of the D3. Jessica takes a well earned top spot in the August round of Grade the Analysts.

Caldwell shares the podium with industry prognosticators of Wards and Kelly, with TrueCar in place four. The bankers are far behind.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • -Cole- -Cole- on Sep 05, 2012

    Why isn't the bottom ten just cut off? It's ALWAYS the bankers. Their predictions aren't worth the scrolling.

  • Billfrombuckhead Billfrombuckhead on Sep 05, 2012

    After watching these predictions for months, it's obvious they havea pro-foreign car bias and and an anti-American car bias. They want the American car industry to fail and actively promote that agenda.

  • Jimboy Jimboy on Sep 05, 2012

    Jessica Caldwell consistently gets closer than any other analyst, so why even bother, just listen to her. (and bankers are just plain stupid, we already know that)