Grade The Analysts: Edmund's Caldwell Beats Bankers, Truecar

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being. 13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. As for the Detroit 3, General Motors disappointed at 2 percent (and threw the analysts off), Ford and Chrysler came in as expected at 6 and 27 percent respectively. And how did our analysts fare?

The sharpest crystal ball was in the hands of Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds. She came closest to the Detroit 3, and pretty close to the SAAR. Our last month winner Road Lache of Deutsche Bank takes second, followed by Jesse Toprak of TrueCar. Peter Nesvold of Jefferies and Adam Jones of Morgan Stanley came closest to the SAAR, but having supplied no Detroit 3 numbers, they were penalized. If you want to win in this game, you need to guess what Detroit does. Thems the rules.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)6.9%8.0%27.0%13.41.06%6.90%7.96%2Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)5.5%4.1%24.0%13.01.96%8.40%10.36%3Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)4.7%7.4%33.0%13.41.06%10.10%11.16%4Brian Johnson (Barclays)4.3%8.8%19.0%13.30.30%13.10%13.40%5Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)7.2%7.5%20.0%13.20.45%13.70%14.15%6Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)8.7%6.5%35.0%13.20.45%15.20%15.65%7Seth Weber (RBC)9.2%8.6%36.0%13.41.06%18.80%19.86%8Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)7.1%1.8%NA13.30.30%109.30%109.60%9Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANA NA13.30.30%300.00%300.30%10Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANA NA13.20.45%300.00%300.45%11Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NANA NA13.41.06%300.00%301.06%12Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NANA NA13.11.21%300.00%301.21%13Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power) NANA NA13.11.21%300.00%301.21%14George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NANA NA12.92.71%300.00%302.71%Average6.7%6.6%28.0%13.2Actual2.0%6.0%27.0%13.26
Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • MaintenanceCosts "But your author does wonder what the maintenance routine is going to be like on an Italian-German supercar that plays host to a high-revving engine, battery pack, and several electric motors."Probably not much different from the maintenance routine of any other Italian-German supercar with a high-revving engine.
  • 28-Cars-Later "The unions" need to not be the UAW and maybe there's a shot. Maybe.
  • 2manyvettes I had a Cougar of similar vintage that I bought from my late mother in law. It did not suffer the issues mentioned in this article, but being a Minnesota car it did have some weird issues, like a rusted brake line.(!) I do not remember the mileage of the vehicle, but it left my driveway when the transmission started making unwelcome noises. I traded it for a much newer Ford Fusion that served my daughter well until she finished college.
  • TheEndlessEnigma Couple of questions: 1) who will be the service partner for these when Rivian goes Tits Up? 2) What happens with software/operating system support when Rivia goes Tits Up? 3) What happens to the lease when Rivian goes Tits up?
  • Richard I loved these cars, I was blessed to own three. My first a red beauty 86. My second was an 87, 2+2, with digital everything. My third an 87, it had been ridden pretty hard when I got it but it served me well for several years. The first two I loved so much. Unfortunately they had fuel injection issue causing them to basically burst into flames. My son was with me at 10 years old when first one went up. I'm holding no grudges. Nissan gave me 1600$ for first one after jumping thru hoops for 3 years. I didn't bother trying with the second. Just wondering if anyone else had similar experience. I still love those cars.
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