Grade The Analysts: Edmund's Caldwell Beats Bankers, Truecar

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being. 13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. As for the Detroit 3, General Motors disappointed at 2 percent (and threw the analysts off), Ford and Chrysler came in as expected at 6 and 27 percent respectively. And how did our analysts fare?

The sharpest crystal ball was in the hands of Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds. She came closest to the Detroit 3, and pretty close to the SAAR. Our last month winner Road Lache of Deutsche Bank takes second, followed by Jesse Toprak of TrueCar. Peter Nesvold of Jefferies and Adam Jones of Morgan Stanley came closest to the SAAR, but having supplied no Detroit 3 numbers, they were penalized. If you want to win in this game, you need to guess what Detroit does. Thems the rules.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)6.9%8.0%27.0%13.41.06%6.90%7.96%2Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)5.5%4.1%24.0%13.01.96%8.40%10.36%3Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)4.7%7.4%33.0%13.41.06%10.10%11.16%4Brian Johnson (Barclays)4.3%8.8%19.0%13.30.30%13.10%13.40%5Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)7.2%7.5%20.0%13.20.45%13.70%14.15%6Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)8.7%6.5%35.0%13.20.45%15.20%15.65%7Seth Weber (RBC)9.2%8.6%36.0%13.41.06%18.80%19.86%8Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)7.1%1.8%NA13.30.30%109.30%109.60%9Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANA NA13.30.30%300.00%300.30%10Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANA NA13.20.45%300.00%300.45%11Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NANA NA13.41.06%300.00%301.06%12Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NANA NA13.11.21%300.00%301.21%13Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power) NANA NA13.11.21%300.00%301.21%14George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NANA NA12.92.71%300.00%302.71%Average6.7%6.6%28.0%13.2Actual2.0%6.0%27.0%13.26
Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Dartdude The bottom line is that in the new America coming the elites don't want you and me to own cars. They are going to make building cars so expensive that the will only be for the very rich and connected. You will eat bugs and ride the bus and live in a 500sq-ft. apartment and like it. HUD wants to quit giving federal for any development for single family homes and don't be surprised that FHA aren't going to give loans for single family homes in the very near future.
  • Ravenuer The rear view of the Eldo coupe makes it look fat!
  • FreedMike This is before Cadillac styling went full scale nutty...and not particularly attractive, in my opinion.
  • JTiberius1701 Middle of April here in NE Ohio. And that can still be shaky. Also on my Fiesta ST, I use Michelin Pilot Sport A/S tires for the winter and Bridgestone Potenza for my summer tires. No issues at all.
  • TCowner We've had a 64.5 Mustang in the family for the past 40 years. It is all original, Rangoon Red coupe with 289 (one of the first instead of the 260), Rally Pac, 4-speed, factory air, every option. Always gets smiles and thumbs ups.
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