Grade The Analysts: Edmund's Caldwell Beats Bankers, Truecar

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being. 13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. As for the Detroit 3, General Motors disappointed at 2 percent (and threw the analysts off), Ford and Chrysler came in as expected at 6 and 27 percent respectively. And how did our analysts fare?

The sharpest crystal ball was in the hands of Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds. She came closest to the Detroit 3, and pretty close to the SAAR. Our last month winner Road Lache of Deutsche Bank takes second, followed by Jesse Toprak of TrueCar. Peter Nesvold of Jefferies and Adam Jones of Morgan Stanley came closest to the SAAR, but having supplied no Detroit 3 numbers, they were penalized. If you want to win in this game, you need to guess what Detroit does. Thems the rules.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell ( Lache (Deutsche Bank)5.5%4.1%24.0%13.01.96%8.40%10.36%3Jesse Toprak ( Johnson (Barclays)4.3%8.8%19.0%13.30.30%13.10%13.40%5Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)7.2%7.5%20.0%13.20.45%13.70%14.15%6Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)8.7%6.5%35.0%13.20.45%15.20%15.65%7Seth Weber (RBC)9.2%8.6%36.0%13.41.06%18.80%19.86%8Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)7.1%1.8%NA13.30.30%109.30%109.60%9Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANA NA13.30.30%300.00%300.30%10Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANA NA13.20.45%300.00%300.45%11Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NANA NA13.41.06%300.00%301.06%12Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NANA NA13.11.21%300.00%301.21%13Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power) NANA NA13.11.21%300.00%301.21%14George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NANA NA12.92.71%300.00%302.71%Average6.7%6.6%28.0%13.2Actual2.0%6.0%27.0%13.26
Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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