Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Wins In Photo Finish

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking. It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals.

Top Ranked Analysts, April 2013 Analyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverallJessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)11.0%16.0%11.0%15.21.88%2.37%4.24%John Sousanis (Ward’s)9.0%17.0%11.0%15.11.21%3.37%4.57%Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)10.0%17.0%12.0%15.21.88%3.36%5.23%Joseph Spak (RBC)9.5%16.0%12.0%15.00.54%4.86%5.39%Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)10.0%17.0%9.3%15.21.88%4.07%5.94%Brian Johnson (Barclays)9.9%17.0%9.6%15.32.55%3.87%6.41%Christopher Ceraso (Credit Suisse)11.0%15.0%10.0%15.32.55%4.37%6.91%Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)12.0%15.0%12.0%15.32.55%4.62%7.17%Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)12.0%22.0%9.4%15.21.88%6.24%8.12%Patrick Archambault(Goldman)8.2%20.0%7.1%15.21.88%9.08%10.96%Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)7.4%12.0%8.6%14.90.13%12.37%12.50%Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA15.11.21%300.00%301.21%Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA15.11.21%300.00%301.21%Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA15.32.55%300.00%302.55%Average10.0%17.0%10.0%15.2Actual11.4%18.0%11.0%14.9

The winner was last year’s overall champion, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com. She leads only a third of a percent in front of John Sousanis of Ward’s, who is separated by a hair from third placed Jesse Toprak.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Marcelo de Vasconcellos Marcelo de Vasconcellos on May 02, 2013

    Oh, she always wins in photos. I think JC will stand for her in future and not that British dude.

  • 08Suzuki 08Suzuki on May 02, 2013

    Caldwell is the only woman in that group. Statistics suggest that women far outperform men in Wall Street financial planning (yet are typically paid up to 20% less).

  • Pig_Iron This message is for Matthew Guy. I just want to say thank you for the photo article titled Tailgate Party: Ford Talks Truck Innovations. It was really interesting. I did not see on the home page and almost would have missed it. I think it should be posted like Corey's Cadillac series. 🙂
  • Analoggrotto Hyundai GDI engines do not require such pathetic bandaids.
  • Slavuta They rounded the back, which I don't like. And inside I don't like oval shapes
  • Analoggrotto Great Value Seventy : The best vehicle in it's class has just taken an incremental quantum leap towards cosmic perfection. Just like it's great forebear, the Pony Coupe of 1979 which invented the sportscar wedge shape and was copied by the Mercedes C111, this Genesis was copied by Lexus back in 1998 for the RX, and again by BMW in the year of 1999 for the X5, remember the M Class from the Jurassic Park movie? Well it too is a copy of some Hyundai luxury vehicles. But here today you can see that the de facto #1 luxury SUV in the industry remains at the top, the envy of every drawing board, and pentagon data analyst as a pure statement of the finest automotive design. Come on down to your local Genesis dealership today and experience acronymic affluence like never before.
  • SCE to AUX Figure 160 miles EPA if it came here, minus the usual deductions.It would be a dud in the US market.
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