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We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking. It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals.
Top Ranked Analysts, April 2013 |
| Analyst | GM | Ford | Chrysler | SAAR | SAAR Diff | OEM Diff | Overall |
| Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) | 11.0% | 16.0% | 11.0% | 15.2 | 1.88% | 2.37% | 4.24% |
| John Sousanis (Ward’s) | 9.0% | 17.0% | 11.0% | 15.1 | 1.21% | 3.37% | 4.57% |
| Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) | 10.0% | 17.0% | 12.0% | 15.2 | 1.88% | 3.36% | 5.23% |
| Joseph Spak (RBC) | 9.5% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 15.0 | 0.54% | 4.86% | 5.39% |
| Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) | 10.0% | 17.0% | 9.3% | 15.2 | 1.88% | 4.07% | 5.94% |
| Brian Johnson (Barclays) | 9.9% | 17.0% | 9.6% | 15.3 | 2.55% | 3.87% | 6.41% |
| Christopher Ceraso (Credit Suisse) | 11.0% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 15.3 | 2.55% | 4.37% | 6.91% |
| Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) | 12.0% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 15.3 | 2.55% | 4.62% | 7.17% |
| Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) | 12.0% | 22.0% | 9.4% | 15.2 | 1.88% | 6.24% | 8.12% |
| Patrick Archambault(Goldman) | 8.2% | 20.0% | 7.1% | 15.2 | 1.88% | 9.08% | 10.96% |
| Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) | 7.4% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 14.9 | 0.13% | 12.37% | 12.50% |
| Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) | NA | NA | NA | 15.1 | 1.21% | 300.00% | 301.21% |
| Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) | NA | NA | NA | 15.1 | 1.21% | 300.00% | 301.21% |
| Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) | NA | NA | NA | 15.2 | 1.88% | 300.00% | 301.88% |
| George Magliano (IHS Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 15.2 | 1.88% | 300.00% | 301.88% |
| Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 15.2 | 1.88% | 300.00% | 301.88% |
| Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) | NA | NA | NA | 15.3 | 2.55% | 300.00% | 302.55% |
| Average | 10.0% | 17.0% | 10.0% | 15.2 | |||
| Actual | 11.4% | 18.0% | 11.0% | 14.9 |
The winner was last year’s overall champion, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com. She leads only a third of a percent in front of John Sousanis of Ward’s, who is separated by a hair from third placed Jesse Toprak.
4 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Wins In Photo Finish...”
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Methinks Mr. Schmitt is happy that Ms. Caldwell is so canny in her forecasting so that pictures of her can keep being posted. :) Not that I’m complaining.
I want to know when BS will interview Ms Caldwell and post the photos of said interview!
Oh, she always wins in photos. I think JC will stand for her in future and not that British dude.
Caldwell is the only woman in that group. Statistics suggest that women far outperform men in Wall Street financial planning (yet are typically paid up to 20% less).