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Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot.
| Rank | Analyst | GM | Ford | Chrysler | SAAR | SAAR Diff | OEM Diff | Overall |
| 1 | Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) | -7.3% | -6.5% | 19.0% | 14.4 | 0.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 2 | Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) | -10.0% | -3.9% | 18.0% | 14.6 | 1.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| 3 | Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) | -8.7% | -5.2% | 16.0% | 14.1 | 2.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% |
| 4 | John Sousanis (Ward’s) | -6.3% | -6.7% | 14.0% | 14.4 | 0.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| 5 | Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) | -6.8% | -3.0% | 13.0% | 14.4 | 0.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| 6 | Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) | -6.0% | -12.0% | 16.0% | 14.2 | 1.4% | 13.0% | 14.4% |
| 7 | Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) | -12.0% | 0.4% | 15.0% | 14.3 | 0.7% | 14.4% | 15.1% |
| 8 | Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) | -15.0% | -5.4% | 14.0% | 14.0 | 2.8% | 13.4% | 16.2% |
| 9 | Patrick Archambault (Goldman) | -7.1% | -6.8% | NA | 14.2 | 1.4% | 102.7% | 104.1% |
| 10 | Joseph Spak (RBC) | -11.0% | -5.5% | NA | 14.2 | 1.4% | 103.5% | 104.9% |
| 11 | Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital) | -8.8% | -8.4% | NA | 14.2 | 1.4% | 104.2% | 105.6% |
| 12 | Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) | NA | NA | NA | 14.4 | 0.0% | 300.0% | 300.0% |
| 13 | Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) | NA | NA | NA | 14.5 | 0.7% | 300.0% | 300.7% |
| 14 | George Magliano (IHS Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 14.2 | 1.4% | 300.0% | 301.4% |
| 15 | Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 13.8 | 4.2% | 300.0% | 304.2% |
| Average | -9.0% | -5.7% | 16.0% | 14.3 | ||||
| Actual | -8.0% | -5.0% | 20.0% | 14.4 |
Caldwell nailed the SAAR of 14.4 million and came within 3.2 percent of the Detroit three. Caldwell is followed by Jesse Toprak of TrueCar, with Peter Nesvold of Jefferies in a close third.
Each month, TTAC grades the sales predictions made by analysts polled by Bloomberg.
6 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Scores A SAAR Bulls Eye And Wins...”
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Pretty impressive work by Jessica Caldwell every month. I don’t know what her credentials are, but she’s probably not making a Deutsche Bank or Morgan Stanley salary.
Thanks for this scorekeeping series, Bertel.
Your right.
I think Jessica Caldwell has some of the most detailed, accurate sales information available to her. Your predictions can only be as good as the data you used to make them. This may be why she regularly scores in the top 3… she has better data.
It’s a bit surprising to see the predicted demand for Chrysler’s cars going up so much, but when your demand couldn’t get any lower than before, you really can only go up. Don’t mean to bash Chrysler, they ARE making notable improvements, but it’s still surprising.
I have to say this feels a bit like analyzing the umpires’ performance in a football match.
Another month, another group of analysts consistently underestimating Chrysler sales. Are they expecting a shoe to drop? How IS Chrysler doing it? Is the 200 suddenly attractive?
200 attractive? No but it is cheap.