Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Scores A SAAR Bulls Eye And Wins

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt
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grade the analysts jessica caldwell scores a saar bulls eye and wins

Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell ( Toprak ( Nesvold (Jefferies)-8.7%-5.2%16.0%14.12.1%4.9%7.0%4John Sousanis (Ward’s)-6.3%-6.7%14.0%14.40.0%9.4%9.4%5Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)-6.8%-3.0%13.0%14.40.0%10.2%10.2%6Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)-6.0%-12.0%16.0%14.21.4%13.0%14.4%7Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)-12.0%0.4%15.0%14.30.7%14.4%15.1%8Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)-15.0%-5.4%14.0%14.02.8%13.4%16.2%9Patrick Archambault (Goldman)-7.1%-6.8%NA14.21.4%102.7%104.1%10Joseph Spak (RBC)-11.0%-5.5%NA14.21.4%103.5%104.9%11Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital)-8.8%-8.4%NA14.21.4%104.2%105.6%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.40.0%300.0%300.0%13Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.50.7%300.0%300.7%14George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA14.21.4%300.0%301.4%15Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA13.84.2%300.0%304.2%Average-9.0%-5.7%16.0%14.3Actual-8.0%-5.0%20.0%14.4

Caldwell nailed the SAAR of 14.4 million and came within 3.2 percent of the Detroit three. Caldwell is followed by Jesse Toprak of TrueCar, with Peter Nesvold of Jefferies in a close third.

Each month, TTAC grades the sales predictions made by analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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4 of 6 comments
  • Mr_muttonchops Mr_muttonchops on May 01, 2012

    It's a bit surprising to see the predicted demand for Chrysler's cars going up so much, but when your demand couldn't get any lower than before, you really can only go up. Don't mean to bash Chrysler, they ARE making notable improvements, but it's still surprising.

  • MrWhopee MrWhopee on May 01, 2012

    I have to say this feels a bit like analyzing the umpires' performance in a football match.

  • Lorenzo Lorenzo on May 02, 2012

    Another month, another group of analysts consistently underestimating Chrysler sales. Are they expecting a shoe to drop? How IS Chrysler doing it? Is the 200 suddenly attractive?

  • Alan996 Alan996 on May 02, 2012

    200 attractive? No but it is cheap.