Grade The Analysts: Banker Blows Away Super-Sandy

by Bertel Schmitt

November 2nd, 2012 1:24 PM

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grade the analysts banker blows away super sandy

Super-Sandy rained into the sales plans of automakers and destroyed the predictions of America’s best analysts. All, except one: Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank’s star automotive analyst.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)6.0%1.0%10.0%14.62.2%2.0%4.2%2Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)4.7%3.5%13.0%14.83.6%6.8%10.4%3Joseph Spak (RBC)8.1%2.4%9.3%15.05.0%6.2%11.2%4Brian Johnson (Barclays)8.2%1.6%15.0%14.94.3%9.8%14.1%5Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)6.0%5.0%15.0%14.94.3%11.0%15.3%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)8.8%3.0%15.0%14.83.6%11.8%15.4%7Alec Gutierrez (Kelley)8.8%3.2%16.0%14.72.9%13.0%15.9%8Patrick Archambault (Goldman)7.0%2.0%19.0%14.83.6%13.0%16.6%9Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)7.3%5.3%15.0%14.94.3%12.6%16.9%10Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)11.0%2.7%18.0%15.05.0%16.7%21.7%11John Sousanis (Ward’s)9.7%5.4%19.0%15.05.0%19.1%24.1%12George Magliano (IHS)NANANA14.62.2%300.0%302.2%13Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA14.72.9%300.0%302.9%14Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA14.72.9%300.0%302.9%15Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.83.6%300.0%303.6%16Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.83.6%300.0%303.6%Average7.8%3.2%15.0%14.80Actual5.0%0.0%10.0%14.29

While a tad too optimistic, Lache was much closer to reality than an his exuberant colleagues, polled by Bloomberg. Lache said GM’s sales would raise 6 percent (they rose 5), he figured Ford would be up 1 percent (Ford was flat), he thought Chrysler would be up 10 percent (Chrysler was.) With 14.6 million, Lache reckoned the lowest SAAR of all the analysts. The true number was 14.29 million.

This is the second time Rod Lache takes the top spot this year. He already led the analysts in July.

Edmunds star analyst Jessica Caldwell, winner of 4 out of 10 months so far, came in second.

#BertelSchmitt #GradeTheAnalysts #October2012

Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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1 comment

Robert Gordon on Nov 06, 2012

Fascinating.

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