By on July 4, 2012

 

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 12.0% 8.0% 18.0% 14.0 0.6% 6.1% 6.7%
2 Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 8.7% 4.4% 19.0% 13.9 1.3% 10.3% 11.6%
3 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 6.4% 7.1% 18.0% 13.8 2.0% 10.9% 12.9%
4 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 7.3% 1.4% 20.0% 13.9 1.3% 13.7% 15.0%
5 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 9.1% 2.9% 17.0% 13.8 2.0% 13.4% 15.4%
6 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 5.2% 4.4% 19.0% 13.8 2.0% 13.8% 15.8%
7 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 7.0% 1.4% 19.0% 13.8 2.0% 15.0% 17.0%
8 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 6.2% 2.0% 17.0% 13.8 2.0% 17.2% 19.2%
9 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 8.2% 2.4% 14.0% 13.7 2.7% 17.8% 20.5%
10 Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 6.0% 0.3% 16.0% 13.6 3.4% 20.1% 23.5%
11 Joseph Spak (RBC) 7.7% 5.9% NA 13.9 1.3% 108.5% 109.8%
12 Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 14.0 0.6% 300.0% 300.6%
13 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.0 0.6% 300.0% 300.6%
14 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 13.9 1.3% 300.0% 301.3%
15 Christopher Hopson (IHS) NA NA NA 13.8 2.0% 300.0% 302.0%
Average 7.6% 3.7% 18.0% 13.8
Actual 15.0% 7.1% 20.3% 14.1

Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted June light vehicle sales to come in much lower. All analysts except one: John Sousanis of Ward’s predicted that this will be a good month. He nearly nailed the SAAR, and came closest to reality in his OEM forecasts.

A deserved top spot goes to the analyst who had joined the ranks of Bloomberg’s forecasters just two month ago. He immediately dared to give estimates for the Detroit 3, the only way to win this game. (Joseph Spak: Please give a guess on Chrysler. Any guess is better than none.)

Grade The Analysts favorite Jessica Caldwell takes 2nd.  Jesse Toprak of TrueCar needs to tune-up his model.

Each month, TTAC grades light vehicle sales forecasts of analysts polled by Bloomberg. We use sales data as compiled by Automotive News and SAAR data as published by Autodata.

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