Grade The Analysts: Audacious Apprentice Takes Top Spot

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1John Sousanis (Ward’s)12.0%8.0%18.0%14.00.6%6.1%6.7%2Jessica Caldwell ( Johnson (Barclays)6.4%7.1%18.0%13.82.0%10.9%12.9%4Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)7.3%1.4%20.0%13.91.3%13.7%15.0%5Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)9.1%2.9%17.0%13.82.0%13.4%15.4%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)5.2%4.4%19.0%13.82.0%13.8%15.8%7Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)7.0%1.4%19.0%13.82.0%15.0%17.0%8Patrick Archambault (Goldman)6.2%2.0%17.0%13.82.0%17.2%19.2%9Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)8.2%2.4%14.0%13.72.7%17.8%20.5%10Jesse Toprak ( Spak (RBC)7.7%5.9%NA13.91.3%108.5%109.8%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.00.6%300.0%300.6%13Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.00.6%300.0%300.6%14Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA13.91.3%300.0%301.3%15Christopher Hopson (IHS)NANANA13.82.0%300.0%302.0%Average7.6%3.7%18.0%13.8Actual15.0%7.1%20.3%14.1

Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted June light vehicle sales to come in much lower. All analysts except one: John Sousanis of Ward’s predicted that this will be a good month. He nearly nailed the SAAR, and came closest to reality in his OEM forecasts.

A deserved top spot goes to the analyst who had joined the ranks of Bloomberg’s forecasters just two month ago. He immediately dared to give estimates for the Detroit 3, the only way to win this game. (Joseph Spak: Please give a guess on Chrysler. Any guess is better than none.)

Grade The Analysts favorite Jessica Caldwell takes 2nd. Jesse Toprak of TrueCar needs to tune-up his model.

Each month, TTAC grades light vehicle sales forecasts of analysts polled by Bloomberg. We use sales data as compiled by Automotive News and SAAR data as published by Autodata.

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  • Sayahh Is it 1974 or 1794? The article is inconsistent.
  • Laura I just buy a Hyndai Elantra SEL, and My car started to have issues with the AC dont work the air sometimes is really hot and later cold and also I heard a noice in the engine so I went to the dealer for the first service and explain what was hapenning to the AC they told me that the car was getting hot because the vent is not working I didnt know that the car was getting hot because it doesnt show nothing no sign no beep nothing I was surprise and also I notice that it needed engine oil, I think that something is wrong with this car because is a model 23 and I just got it on April only 5 months use. is this normal ? Also my daughter bought the same model and she went for a trip and the car also got hot and it didnt show up in the system she called them and they said to take the car to the dealer for a check up I think that if the cars are new they shouldnt be having this problems.
  • JamesGarfield What charging network does the Polestar use?
  • JamesGarfield Re: Getting away from union plantsAbout a dozen years or so ago, Caterpillar built a huge new engine plant, just down the road here in Seguin TX. Story has it, Caterpillar came to Seguin City council in advance, and told them their plans. Then they asked for no advanced publicity from Seguin, until announcement day. This new plant was gonna be a non-union replacement for a couple of union plants in IL and SC, and Cat didn't want to stir up union problems until the plan was set. They told Seguin, If you about blab this in advance, we'll walk. Well, Seguin kept quiet as instructed, and the plan went through, with all the usual expected tax abatements given.Plant construction began, but the Caterpillar name was conspicuously absent from anywhere on the site. Instead, the plant was described as being a collective of various contractors and suppliers for Caterpillar. Which in fact, it was. Then comes the day, with the big new plant fully operationa!, that Caterpillar comes in and announces, Hey, Yeah it's our plant, and the Caterpillar name boldly goes up on the front. All you contractor folks, welcome aboard, you're now Caterpillar employees. Then, Cat turns and announces they are closing those two union plants immediately, and will be transporting all the heavy manufacturing equipment to Seguin. None of the union workers, just the equipment. And today, the Caterpillar plant sits out there, humming away happily, making engines for the industry and good paying jobs for us. I'd call that a winner.
  • Stuki Moi What Subaru taketh away in costs, dealers will no doubt add right back in adjustments.... Fat chance Subaru will offer a sufficient supply of them.