Grade The Analysts, May 2012: Exuberance Causes Big Fail

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)13.0%14.0%36.0%14.33.8%9.0%12.8%2Jesse Toprak ( Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)11.0%9.4%40.0%14.23.0%13.6%16.6%4Jessica Caldwell ( Archambault (Goldman)15.0%10.0%38.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)13.0%12.0%44.0%14.44.5%17.0%21.5%7Brian Johnson (Barclays)16.0%15.0%42.0%14.44.5%19.0%23.5%8Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)18.0%11.0%41.0%14.44.5%20.0%24.5%9John Sousanis (Ward’s)15.0%15.0%45.0%14.66.0%21.0%27.0%10Joseph Spak (RBC)16.0%10.0%NA14.44.5%108.0%112.5%11George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA14.23.0%300.0%303.0%12Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.33.8%300.0%303.8%13Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%14Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%Average15.0%12.0%40.0%14.4Actual11.0%13.0%30.0%13.8

The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday.

Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment.

The winner of May’s Grade The Analysts is Chris Ceraso of Credit Suisse. In the preceding months , Chris had ranked at the bottom of the field of contestants who had a fair chance of winning. Only the ones who deliver a prediction for the SAAR AND the Detroit 3 can win this game.

In May, Chris performed with Swiss consistency, missing the mark by nearly 13 percent. He won, because the other contestants finished much worse.

In second place is Jesse Toprak of TrueCar, defending the honor of analysts who are in possession of strategically important real-time transaction data. Nevertheless, Jesse aimed too high. In place three is Alec Gutierrez of Kelley Blue Book, who had set off a round of misguided enthusiasm by predicting a week ago that the market could be up by 30 percent .

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  • Analoggrotto Too bad they don't sell Kia Telluride, the greatest selling vehicle in it's class over the pond in the UK who burned Washington DC down but that's ok.
  • Zerofoo There's a joke here somewhere about Tim's used car recommendations, Tassos, and death traps.
  • Tassos Subaru really knows how to take fugly to ever higher levels, and sell every one of the (of course very few) it makes. As if the number of sales negates the fugliness.Don't hold your breath. I bet this will NOT be the vehicle James Bond arrives at the Casino in Monte Carlo with in his next flick. (if any)
  • ToolGuy Government overreach. Park the Ford in your air-conditioned garage on a maintenance charger and this won't be a problem.Here's some (old) general background if you are interested.@ILO, there are 3 Fords, and Ford Pro™ is the one with the bright future 🙂
  • ToolGuy No harm no foul (no one died), business is business, yada yada. Why must everyone pick on dealers?-this post dedicated to Ruggles