Record Month Expected For May, Except For GM And Ford. Toyota Could Double Its Sales

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

When new car sales will be announced on June 1, sales could be up by 30 percent, thinks Kelley Blue Book. When sales approach 1.4 million units, or 14.2 million seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) in May, Kelley expects GM and Ford to underperform the market, while Toyota could nearly double its sales and surpass Ford in market share.

These projections are based on real time sales data, but they remain projections until the real and hopefully true data come in. One of the reasons for the big jump are two additional selling days in May, and a strong Memorial day weekend.

Sales and market share projections, May 2012, Kelley Blue Book

Sales VolumeMarket ShareManufacturerMay ’12May ’11YOY%May ’12May ’11YOYGeneral Motors245,284221,19210.90%17.80%20.80%-3.00%Toyota Motor Co210,834108,38794.50%15.30%10.20%5.10%Ford Motor Co209,456191,5299.40%15.20%18.00%-2.80%Chrysler Group161,226115,36339.80%11.70%10.90%0.80%American Honda139,17890,77353.30%10.10%8.50%1.60%Hyundai Kia124,020107,42615.40%9.00%10.10%-1.10%Nissan NA96,46076,14826.70%7.00%7.20%-0.20%VW52,36440,78328.40%3.80%3.80%0.00%Total1,378,000*1,061,84129.80%–––

Toyota and Honda are expected to be up strongly. In May last year, inventory shortages from the earthquake in Japan became a factor. In May 2011, Toyota was down 33 percent, Honda 23 percent. Both are back with a vengeance. Kelley sees Toyota nearly double its May 2011 sales, and expects Honda sales to rise by more than 50 percent.

While GM and Ford are expected to underperform the market with a sales gain around 10 percent, Chrysler is seen continuing its race to the top with a plus of nearly 40 percent.

General Motors, Ford and (surprise) Hyundai are expected to lose market share. Toyota is seen gaining 5 percent of share.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

More by Bertel Schmitt

Comments
Join the conversation
2 of 15 comments
  • Wolfwagen Is it me or have auto shows just turned to meh? To me, there isn't much excitement anymore. it's like we have hit a second malaise era. Every new vehicle is some cookie-cutter CUV. No cutting-edge designs. No talk of any great powertrains, or technological achievements. It's sort of expected with the push to EVs but there is no news on that front either. No new battery tech, no new charging tech. Nothing.
  • CanadaCraig You can just imagine how quickly the tires are going to wear out on a 5,800 lbs AWD 2024 Dodge Charger.
  • Luke42 I tried FSD for a month in December 2022 on my Model Y and wasn’t impressed.The building-blocks were amazing but sum of the all of those amazing parts was about as useful as Honda Sensing in terms of reducing the driver’s workload.I have a list of fixes I need to see in Autopilot before I blow another $200 renting FSD. But I will try it for free for a month.I would love it if FSD v12 lived up to the hype and my mind were changed. But I have no reason to believe I might be wrong at this point, based on the reviews I’ve read so far. [shrug]. I’m sure I’ll have more to say about it once I get to test it.
  • FormerFF We bought three new and one used car last year, so we won't be visiting any showrooms this year unless a meteor hits one of them. Sorry to hear that Mini has terminated the manual transmission, a Mini could be a fun car to drive with a stick.It appears that 2025 is going to see a significant decrease in the number of models that can be had with a stick. The used car we bought is a Mk 7 GTI with a six speed manual, and my younger daughter and I are enjoying it quite a lot. We'll be hanging on to it for many years.
  • Oberkanone Where is the value here? Magna is assembling the vehicles. The IP is not novel. Just buy the IP at bankruptcy stage for next to nothing.
Next