Record Month Expected For May, Except For GM And Ford. Toyota Could Double Its Sales
When new car sales will be announced on June 1, sales could be up by 30 percent, thinks Kelley Blue Book. When sales approach 1.4 million units, or 14.2 million seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) in May, Kelley expects GM and Ford to underperform the market, while Toyota could nearly double its sales and surpass Ford in market share.
These projections are based on real time sales data, but they remain projections until the real and hopefully true data come in. One of the reasons for the big jump are two additional selling days in May, and a strong Memorial day weekend.
Sales and market share projections, May 2012, Kelley Blue BookSales VolumeMarket ShareManufacturerMay ’12May ’11YOY%May ’12May ’11YOYGeneral Motors245,284221,19210.90%17.80%20.80%-3.00%Toyota Motor Co210,834108,38794.50%15.30%10.20%5.10%Ford Motor Co209,456191,5299.40%15.20%18.00%-2.80%Chrysler Group161,226115,36339.80%11.70%10.90%0.80%American Honda139,17890,77353.30%10.10%8.50%1.60%Hyundai Kia124,020107,42615.40%9.00%10.10%-1.10%Nissan NA96,46076,14826.70%7.00%7.20%-0.20%VW52,36440,78328.40%3.80%3.80%0.00%Total1,378,000*1,061,84129.80%–––
Toyota and Honda are expected to be up strongly. In May last year, inventory shortages from the earthquake in Japan became a factor. In May 2011, Toyota was down 33 percent, Honda 23 percent. Both are back with a vengeance. Kelley sees Toyota nearly double its May 2011 sales, and expects Honda sales to rise by more than 50 percent.
While GM and Ford are expected to underperform the market with a sales gain around 10 percent, Chrysler is seen continuing its race to the top with a plus of nearly 40 percent.
General Motors, Ford and (surprise) Hyundai are expected to lose market share. Toyota is seen gaining 5 percent of share.
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