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This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault.
| Top Ranked Analysts, February 2013 | ||||||||
| Rank | Analyst | GM | Ford | Chrysler | SAAR | SAAR Diff | OEM Diff | Overall |
| 1 | Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) | 5.0% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 15.3 | 0.52% | 4.03% | 4.54% |
| 2 | Brian Johnson (Barclays) | 4.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 15.3 | 0.52% | 4.21% | 4.73% |
| 3 | Patrick Archambault (Goldman) | 6.3% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 15.3 | 0.52% | 4.41% | 4.93% |
| 4 | Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) | 4.2% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 15.3 | 0.52% | 4.81% | 5.33% |
| 5 | Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 15.3 | 0.52% | 5.28% | 5.80% |
| 6 | Joseph Spak (RBC) | 5.3% | 9.7% | 0.2% | 15.3 | 0.52% | 6.16% | 6.67% |
| 7 | John Sousanis (Wards) | 6.0% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 15.4 | 0.13% | 6.73% | 6.86% |
| 8 | Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) | 2.7% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 15.4 | 0.13% | 7.93% | 8.06% |
| 9 | Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) | 5.1% | 7.2% | -1.1% | 15.2 | 1.17% | 9.41% | 10.58% |
| 10 | Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) | 5.6% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 15.7 | 2.08% | 9.23% | 11.31% |
| 11 | Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) | 4.6% | 16.0% | 7.6% | 15.5 | 0.78% | 12.73% | 13.51% |
| 12 | George Magliano (IHS) | NA | NA | NA | 15.3 | 0.52% | 300.00% | 300.52% |
| 13 | Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) | NA | NA | NA | 15.3 | 0.52% | 300.00% | 300.52% |
| 14 | Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) | NA | NA | NA | 15.2 | 1.17% | 300.00% | 301.17% |
| 15 | Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 15.2 | 1.17% | 300.00% | 301.17% |
| Average | 4.9% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 15.3 | 0.52% | 3.03% | 3.54% | |
| Actual | 7.2% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 15.4 | ||||
The specialists of TrueCar and Edmunds find themselves at the bottom of the list of bona-fide guessers. What were you thinking, Jesse, a 15.7 SAAR? Jessica, Jessica: Too low for GM, way too high for Ford and Chrysler. Better luck next time.
6 Comments on “Grade The Analysts: Conservative Bankers Trounce Exuberant Specialists...”
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I like it when Ms Caldwell. When she does, the pic is always much better.
+1
I was going to make a joke about how Mr. Nesvold “does it” for another group of people involving certain social and age groups. However, I decided that would be in poor taste, so use your imagination.
My point being, I’m sure there is someone who enjoys seeing Mr. Nesvold over Ms. Caldwell.
We need something to match the Chinese New Year excuse. There were blizzards and meteors, but they’re not very regular. How about Valentine’s Day occurring during the week? Is that why Jessica missed?