Analysts Agree: October Will Be Good – But How Good Are The Analysts?

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Analyst GMFord Chrysler SAARGeorge Magliano (IHS Automotive) NANA NA12.9Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)5.5%4.1%24.0%13.0Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NANA NA13.1Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power) NANA NA13.1Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)7.2%7.5%20.0%13.2Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANA NA13.2Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)8.7%6.5%35.0%13.2Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANA NA13.3Brian Johnson (Barclays)4.3%8.8%19.0%13.3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)7.1%1.8%NA13.3Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NANA NA13.4Jesse Toprak ( Caldwell ( Weber (RBC)9.2%8.6%36.0%13.4Average6.7%6.6%28.0%13.2

Today, October new car sales will be announced, and they are expected to be good. Analysts polled by Bloomberg show rare unity: They expect a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate of sales (SAAR) of 13.2 million on average, and the spread is only 500,000. Likewise, analysts agree that Ford and GM will each add around 6 percent in sales, whereas Chrysler will jump by around 28 percent.

We will do our usual Grade the Analysts competition later today, and looking at the predictions, the race will be very tight – except for those analysts that refuse to give a Detroit 3 prediction. They won’t stand a chance.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Brantta Brantta on Nov 01, 2011

    GM up 2% - retail up 3% Ford up 6% - retail NA Chrysler up 27% - retail up 40%

  • Mike978 Mike978 on Nov 01, 2011

    So Peter Nesvold (never heard of him) was correct on GM - everyone else 9who made a prediction) were on the high side. From Brantta's data it looks like both GM and Chrysler cut their fleet sales relative to retail - that is a good sign.