Grade The Analysts: Shape Up, Ladies & Gentlemen!

by Bertel Schmitt

Published: February 3rd, 2012

The year begins with our analysts in utter disarray. Reality destroyed all projections, even the finely honed real-time forecasting models of TrueCar, Edmunds and Kelley Blue Book are left as smoking wrecks. In the end, familiar names won our January Grade The Analyst, but only because others finished much worse.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)-9.4%8.0%34.0%13.604.09%14.40%18.49%2Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)-8.9%9.2%35.0%13.405.50%14.10%19.60%3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)-9.1%8.1%33.0%13.405.50%15.20%20.70%4Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)-4.0%10.0%31.0%13.703.39%18.00%21.39%5Joseph Spak (RBC)0.6%1.8%36.0%13.504.80%19.80%24.60%6Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)-5.4%14.0%33.0%13.206.91%18.60%25.51%7Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)-10.0%13.0%31.0%13.504.80%23.00%27.80%8Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital)-12.0%-1.0%23.0%13.206.91%35.00%41.91%9Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANANA13.504.80%300.00%304.80%10Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA13.504.80%300.00%304.80%11Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA13.504.80%300.00%304.80%12Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA13.405.50%300.00%305.50%13Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA13.405.50%300.00%305.50%14George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA13.206.91%300.00%306.91%Average-7.3%7.9%32.0%13.40Actual-6.0%7.0%44.0%14.18

Overall, the creme-de-la-creme of the Nation’s auto analysts missed the January SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) by nearly a million when polled by Bloomberg a day before the actual January sales came in. The eight analysts that submitted projections for the Detroit 3 (the only way to win this game) guessed way too low on Chrysler, were in the ball park (but too optimistic) on Ford, and too pessimistic on GM.

Finally, Jesse Toprak of TrueCar narrowly squeezed by Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, winner of The Top Analyst Crown 2011 . Kelley Blue Book’s real time model disappointed.

TrueCar had a bit of a rough time lately, they can use some good news.

Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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3 of 12 comments

Michal1980 on Feb 03, 2012

Guy needs new dreams, if his dream car is a Mini-Van.

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- Klossfam on Feb 03, 2012
  
  If his dream car is a minvan, Calvin should use the commercial spot to see if he can get someone to 'take him out'... I kid of course - sort a - as I've had a 1996 Ford Windstar and 2001 Honda Odyssey in my past...BUT I'm glad those days have come and gone...
  
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Steven02 on Feb 03, 2012

I am not sure why you lump all of the people who don't list individual OEMs together with those who do and then count the OEM numbers against them. Seems kind of odd. Also, does anyone rank how they think all of the major OEMs do in the US on a monthly basis? Would be interesting to see that more than just the D2.5.

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