By on December 5, 2012

Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month’s sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who missed, and who is not even in the ballpark. Analysts who only give a SAAR and nothing else are being punished in this ranking.  Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM? Thankfully, the number of lazy analysts diminishes each month. And here are this month’s winners:

November Analyst Rankings

Rank Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
1 Brian Johnson (Barclays) 5.5% 2.9% 14.0% 15.3 1.5% 5.6% 7.1%
2 Jessica Caldwell ( 5.5% 3.3% 13.0% 15.0 3.5% 6.2% 9.7%
3 Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 6.0% 2.0% 12.0% 15.4 0.9% 9.0% 9.9%
4 Joseph Spak (RBC) 7.7% 3.5% 16.0% 15.2 2.2% 9.2% 11.4%
5 Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 7.0% 3.0% 17.0% 15.1 2.8% 10.0% 12.8%
6 John Sousanis (Ward’s) 7.6% 3.9% 18.0% 15.2 2.2% 10.7% 12.9%
7 Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 9.5% 2.7% 16.0% 15.0 3.5% 11.8% 15.3%
8 Alec Gutierrez (Kelley) 7.0% 0.5% 13.0% 14.7 5.4% 10.5% 15.9%
9 Jesse Toprak ( 9.0% 1.5% 18.0% 15.2 2.2% 14.5% 16.7%
10 Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 8.6% 2.3% 18.0% 15.0 3.5% 13.3% 16.8%
11 Patrick Archambault (Goldman) 9.9% 1.2% 16.0% 15.0 3.5% 13.7% 17.2%
12 Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 15.0 3.5% 300.0% 303.5%
13 Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 15.0 3.5% 300.0% 303.5%
14 George Magliano (IHS) NA NA NA 14.8 4.7% 300.0% 304.7%
15 Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 14.7 5.4% 300.0% 305.4%
Average 7.6% 2.4% 16.0% 15.00
Actual 3.0% 6.0% 14.0% 15.54

On average, the 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg were not optimistic enough on the market, were way to exuberant about GM, did not give enough credit to Ford, and called Chrysler alright. Rock star Jesse Toprak had a bad month and licks his wounds in rank 9. Golden Girl Jessica Caldwell came close, but was denied first place by dark horse Brian Johnson of Barclays. In prior months, Johnson was  known for rather middling performance. Was is mere luck? We will know next month, when the analyst of the year will get the TTAC ’12, a.k.a.  The Top Anlalyst Crown 2012.

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5 Comments on “Dark Horse Best Analyst Of The Month...”

  • avatar

    The real story emerging on this topic is Jessica Caldwell. Am I wrong, or has she been in the top 3 or 5 every time? What’s her secret?

    By the way, any analyst off more than 15% regularly is an overpaid pretender.

  • avatar

    Bertel, you don’t understand how “forecasts” are made. No analyst can make a company estimate on his or her own because a high, and variable, percentage of deliveries are fleet. How can someone on Wall Street guess that Hertz took delivery of 25,000 vehicles in late November instead of early December? (Incidentally, 25,000 is a 0.3 million SAAR.) Accuracy is determined by the timing of the call (Jerry called on Monday; Wendy on Wednesday, when two days’ more data was available) and, occasionally, on whether or not the company likes the analyst (George has a buy recommendation; Sally, a sell).

  • avatar

    “Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM?”

    Sure, if you’re a day trader whose attention span is shorter than a Lamborghini Murciélago’s quarter-mile run. But something tells me Warren Buffett isn’t exactly poring over lists of monthly analyst rankings.

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