#GradeTheAnalysts

We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking. It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals.

This was tough month for the panel of analysts polled by Bloomberg: Analysts who previously monopolized the top ranks of the list blew this one. February was won by three bankers: Peter Nesvold in first, followed by Brian Johnson, and Patrick Archambault.

If your life, career, wealth, or all of the above depend on forecasting the auto market with precision and reliability, then you can do no better than securing the services of Edmunds’ chief analyst Jessica Caldwell. Last year’s winner of the coveted “TTAC 11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”) does it again: Jessica Caldwell wins the TTAC 12, closely followed by her perennial antagonists, Jesse Toprak of TrueCar and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.

TTAC congratulates Jessica Caldwell and her team to her second coronation in a row.

Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month’s sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who missed, and who is not even in the ballpark. Analysts who only give a SAAR and nothing else are being punished in this ranking. Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM? Thankfully, the number of lazy analysts diminishes each month. And here are this month’s winners:

Super-Sandy rained into the sales plans of automakers and destroyed the predictions of America’s best analysts. All, except one: Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank’s star automotive analyst.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)1.9%0.7%8.4%14.43.6%4.5%8.1%2Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)2.5%1.3%8.1%14.62.3%6.0%8.3%3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)3.7%2.2%6.1%14.52.9%10.1%13.0%4Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)1.0%1.6%4.4%14.43.6%9.5%13.1%5John Sousanis (Ward’s)4.6%4.3%8.1%14.62.3%11.1%13.4%6Joseph Spak (RBC)4.0%4.9%8.0%14.52.9%11.2%14.1%7Patrick Archambault (Goldman)2.2%4.2%4.8%14.62.3%11.9%14.2%8Brian Johnson (Barclays)-1.5%-1.4%5.5%14.34.3%10.2%14.5%9Alec Gutierrez (Kelley)4.0%1.7%5.6%14.34.3%10.4%14.7%10Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)3.3%2.0%4.4%14.43.6%11.2%14.8%11Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)5.0%4.0%6.0%14.52.9%13.3%16.2%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA15.00.4%300.0%300.4%13George Magliano (IHS)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%14Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%16Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA14.43.6%300.0%303.6%Average2.8%2.3%6.3%14.50Actual1.5%-0.2%11.5%14.94

The public may have been surprised by the very strong showing of the market and the not so strong showing of GM and Ford when the September sales came in yesterday. Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar weren’t surprised at all. They called the market with high precision. Separated by only 0.2 points, Caldwell made first, Toprak second, followed far behind by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.

August sales numbers caught analysts by surprise. They had expected a strong August, but they did not aim high enough. All but Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.

They called the market correctly, but they did bet on the wrong horses. Bloomberg polled the usual assemblage of analysts regarding the final tally of July new car sales, and the analysts did not disappoint when it came to the overall market. On average, they nailed the July SAAR of 14.1 million. When it came to the Detroit 3, they were way too optimistic. And it just so happens that the chief car analyst of Germany’s largest bank is the winner of this month’s Grade the Analysts.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1John Sousanis (Ward’s)12.0%8.0%18.0%14.00.6%6.1%6.7%2Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)8.7%4.4%19.0%13.91.3%10.3%11.6%3Brian Johnson (Barclays)6.4%7.1%18.0%13.82.0%10.9%12.9%4Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)7.3%1.4%20.0%13.91.3%13.7%15.0%5Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)9.1%2.9%17.0%13.82.0%13.4%15.4%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)5.2%4.4%19.0%13.82.0%13.8%15.8%7Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)7.0%1.4%19.0%13.82.0%15.0%17.0%8Patrick Archambault (Goldman)6.2%2.0%17.0%13.82.0%17.2%19.2%9Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)8.2%2.4%14.0%13.72.7%17.8%20.5%10Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)6.0%0.3%16.0%13.63.4%20.1%23.5%11Joseph Spak (RBC)7.7%5.9%NA13.91.3%108.5%109.8%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.00.6%300.0%300.6%13Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.00.6%300.0%300.6%14Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA13.91.3%300.0%301.3%15Christopher Hopson (IHS)NANANA13.82.0%300.0%302.0%Average7.6%3.7%18.0%13.8Actual15.0%7.1%20.3%14.1

Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted June light vehicle sales to come in much lower. All analysts except one: John Sousanis of Ward’s predicted that this will be a good month. He nearly nailed the SAAR, and came closest to reality in his OEM forecasts.

TTAC’s advisor in cross-cultural affairs, Frau Schmitto-san, advises me that “itay” means “pain” in Japanese. Nomen est omen: Pessimistic remarks of an analyst named “Itay” sent car stocks down this morning. By mid day, Ford had dropped 19 cents, GM lost 53 cents. All because Citi analyst Itay Michaeli thinks the car market may not be as hot as some think.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)13.0%14.0%36.0%14.33.8%9.0%12.8%2Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)17.0%11.0%33.0%14.55.2%11.0%16.2%3Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)11.0%9.4%40.0%14.23.0%13.6%16.6%4Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)11.0%16.0%42.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%5Patrick Archambault (Goldman)15.0%10.0%38.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)13.0%12.0%44.0%14.44.5%17.0%21.5%7Brian Johnson (Barclays)16.0%15.0%42.0%14.44.5%19.0%23.5%8Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)18.0%11.0%41.0%14.44.5%20.0%24.5%9John Sousanis (Ward’s)15.0%15.0%45.0%14.66.0%21.0%27.0%10Joseph Spak (RBC)16.0%10.0%NA14.44.5%108.0%112.5%11George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA14.23.0%300.0%303.0%12Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.33.8%300.0%303.8%13Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%14Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%Average15.0%12.0%40.0%14.4Actual11.0%13.0%30.0%13.8

The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday.

Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment.

Our analysts did a stellar job this month. The panel of 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg came very close to the final results. Our perennial winner, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds, came even closer and takes a very well deserved top spot.

March was a great month for the auto industry, and an analyst’s Waterloo. The real-time data equipped heavy-weights of Edmunds, TrueCar and Kelley were solidly trounced by bankers with a better feel, better sources, or simply better luck. The podium of March’s “Grade The Analysts” is populated by brokers and bankers, the professional auto oracles have been degraded to also-runs.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)-5.0%18.0%32.0%14.44.64%18.15%22.79%2Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital)-3.6%7.1%32.0%14.35.30%20.34%25.64%3Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)-6.1%14.0%27.0%14.35.30%20.94%26.24%4Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)-2.6%11.0%26.0%14.35.30%21.44%26.74%5Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)-5.9%13.0%27.0%14.25.96%21.74%27.70%6Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)-3.9%5.6%25.0%14.53.97%29.14%33.12%7Joseph Spak (RBC)-5.2%8.0%24.0%14.16.62%29.04%35.67%8Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)-4.0%8.7%22.0%14.16.62%29.14%35.77%9Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)-5.8%5.6%25.0%13.88.61%31.04%39.65%10Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)-5.6%3.4%22.0%14.16.62%36.04%42.67%11Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NA NA NA14.35.30%300.00%305.30%12Matthew Stover (Guggenheim) NA NA NA14.35.30%300.00%305.30%13Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA NA14.25.96%300.00%305.96%14Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NA NA NA14.25.96%300.00%305.96%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA14.07.28%300.00%307.28%16Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NA NA NA14.07.28%300.00%307.28%17George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NA NA NA13.88.61%300.00%308.61%Average-4.8%9.4%26.0%14.2Actual1.1%14.3%40.4%15.1

The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.

February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million.

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC 11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”).