Toyota today announced financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2011. It was the first full quarter after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami which severely affected production and sales at home and abroad. The results reflect this.

Between Consumer Reports’ decision to drop the Honda Civic from its “recommended” list, the poor financial numbers, increased competition from Detroit, Wolfsburg and Korea and the chaos of the tsunami (not to mention the Toyota recall scandal), there are plenty of signs that the land of the rising sun is losing its grip on the US car market. But is the slide inexorable, or can Japan rally to regain its dominance? Here, via Automotive News [sub], is a graphic that projects the product cadence of Japan’s “big three” over model-years 2012-2015… does it give you hope for Japan, or do you see signs of continued struggles?

In an interview with The Nikkei [sub], Mazda’s President Takashi Yamanouchi mounted a spirited defense of the internal combustion engine. He said it won’t go away anytime soon. He thinks the ICE will remain a mainstream option, especially in emerging markets. As proof he points to the recently launched Demio subcompact, which gets similar mileage as a Honda hybrid.

Yamanouchi does not believe that hybrids or EVs will make a huge dent into the market, especially not in the emerging markets, where money is tight.

“The size of the global auto market is now at roughly 60 million units, but it will top 100 million sooner or later. Though we factor in opinions from outside the industry, the share of hybrid and electric cars in the global market will probably not exceed 5% in 2020. That means gasoline-powered cars are expected to continue to dominate the market.”

Two weeks ago, commenter Marko asked: „Does anyone know when SkyActiv will make it to the US?” TTAC is required reading at Mazda, and here is the answer: Real soon!

Japanese carmakers are watching the rising yen and falling dollar with great trepidation. Most have the yen at 80 or above in their plans. Today, the greenback buys just 77 yen. “The soaring yen is forcing major Japanese companies to rethink their assumed exchange rates for the current fiscal year,” writes The Nikkei [sub] today, and adds: “Reviews of assumed rates could also accelerate the transfer of production bases overseas.” Honda does just that.

The Japanese auto industry slowly but surely is clawing back from the abyss created by one of the worst disasters that were visited upon the island nation. Following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the industry had crashed. Three months later and earlier than thought, the industry is at near pre-disaster levels. Data released by the Japan Auto Manufacturers Association shows the June production at 742,431 units, only 13.9 percent below June 2010.

Toyota is working on a small car based on its emerging market platform that underpins the Indian Etios, and will release it in China by 2013 – if The Nikkei [sub] is correctly informed. There is nobody working at Toyota on Thursdays and Fridays as a power saving measure, so there is nobody to ask. We expect no more than the usual “we cannot comment on future models” when people will be back to work on Saturday. With that in mind, let’s go down rumor lane.

In a race to get a more solid foothold in India, Toyota is nearly doubling its production capacity on the subcontinent. Much to the chagrin of some Indians, the country is called the “next China.” Currently, the market is dominated by Suzuki, which owns nearly half. Hyundai and Mahindra hold sizable shares – all of which bugs the world’s largest carmakers to no end.

In fulfillment of my paparazzo duties, I stalked Nissan’s and Renault’s CEO all the way to China today. Easy for me to do: I could walk from where I live in Beijing. The walk was worth it. In the Grand Ballroom of the China World Tower 3, Ghosn and his Chinese joint venture partners announced an aggressive five year plan. Nissan and Dongfeng want to nearly double Nissan sales in China from 1.3 million in 2010 to 2.3 million in 2015.

At a press conference in Beijing’s tallest building, Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn announced today that the Nissan-Dongfeng joint venture will build an EV in China, and that it will be ready by 2015. No, it will not be the Nissan Leaf. It will be a plug-in that will sail under Nissan-Dongfeng’s “Chinese” brand, Venucia. Said Ghosn:

Today is the day when the Japanese majors announce domestic and global data for June and the half year. A little more than three months ago, a massive earthquake, followed by a devastating tsunami, paralyzed much of Japan’s infrastructure. It could not have come at a more inopportune time. The Japanese auto industry was already suffering from weak markets at home and abroad, paired with a rising yen that destroyed profits from exports. Three months later, how big was the hit?

When I was a very young and very green copywriter, Dr. Carl Hahn, at the time CEO of Continental Tires and later CEO of Volkswagen, said in an agency brief: “We lose 10 Deutschmarks on every tire we sell.”

“Then we better stop advertising them,” said I.

Hahn gave me a pained look. The look was followed by real and massive pain in my left foot, because my Creative Director had kicked me viciously.

“Ouch!” I said.

“You’ve got that right,” said Hahn.

That little story crossed my mind when I read in The Nikkei [sub] that “Mitsubishi Motors Corp.’s electric vehicles and other eco-friendly offerings are expected to begin contributing to the firm’s bottom line in two years.”

Why was Honda as much hit as Toyota by the March11 earthquake and tsunami? Doesn’t Honda have the bulk of its production outside of Japan? How could Nissan avoid most of the damage, even with an engine factory close to Fukushima?

It was a bit like a roulette game, and it involved a lot of chips. According to industry talk in Japan, Nissan had taken a large supply of ECU chips before the quake. Honda and Toyota were waiting for their just-in-time delivery. Honda and Toyota received most of their engine controller chips from one chipmaker, Renesas. Two weeks after the catastrophe, we had pointed out that Renesas and its damaged fab near the epicenter would turn into a major bottleneck. What’s more, Honda had no idea.

Say what you want about the nannyfication of cars, about gadgets that disturb the intimate relationship between man and machine. But a lot of the drastic decline of fatalities on the road goes on account of cars made safer with little electronics brains. Now, the brains think of people not even in the car.

Thailand, with a low currency, strong local demand and many foreign trade agreements, turns more and more into the South-East-Asian auto hub. Business-in-Asia gave it the unfortunate title “Detroit of Asia.” Thailand’s auto industry is targeting production of 3 million vehicles annually by 2015, more than countries like Canada, France, even Mexico currently make. Toyota, Honda and Nissan already have a pretty tight grip on the country. Now, Nissan is taking it a notch up.

Yesterday, we talked about a new gasoline-powered Daihatsu car that gets 70 mpg (non-EPA). After The Nikkei [sub] broke that story, the phone rang in Tokyo and several other manufacturers said “watashi tachi mo!” (Us too!) And today, The Nikkei [sub] is out with the story that other manufacturers “are mounting a challenge by launching gasoline-powered models that can compete with hybrids on fuel economy.” Not only that, they severely beat the pricey hybrids on price. Buy the car, and you can start saving right away.

Doesn’t it bug you that you have to shell out loads of money in order to save gas? Here comes a fuel sipper that won’t suck your wallet dry. No fancy electronics, no heavy batteries, and it even so gets 30km per liter of gasoline (according to the JC08 standard,) which translates to a non-EPA, but nonetheless jaw-dropping 70 mpg. According to The Nikkei [sub], Toyota’s Kei car subsidiary Daihatsu “has developed technology that will enable it to offer the only [gasoline powered] car in the world” that gets these numbers without hybrid technology.

You may not care very much when U.S. News ranks the $84,060 Nissan GT-R “2 out of 8 Super Luxury Sports Cars.” The thought might cross your mind that with a paltry $84K price, it can hardly qualify as a Super Luxury Sports Car. But you will take note when Top Gear runs the car around its airport-cum-testtrack and …

„But if it’s attention you are after, no conversion beats Hello Kitty,“ says the announcer. And after a long pause: “ … even in Kyoto.”

No kitting.

“Right now, there is no specific joint development project going on with Volkswagen,” Suzuki Executive Vice President Yasuhito Harayama told reporters who came to Suzuki’s headquarters in Hamamatsu, Japan, to meet four executive vice presidents of Suzuki. Come to think of it, there had been no progress over the past 18 months in the much feted partnership between Suzuki and Volkswagen, Harayama said.

The man who just cut deep in the fraying strands of the tie-up between Volkswagen and Suzuki would have all reason to say everything is fine. Harayama is a former bureaucrat at Japan’s economy and trade ministry who was hired by Suzuki two years ago. He is in charge of relations with Volkswagen. It is not in his interest to admit defeat.

According to comments made by Harayama to Ran Kim of Reuters, one of the sharpest reporters on the Japanese auto beat, relations between Wolfsburg and Hamamatsu turned into a deep freeze when Volkswagen tried to “wield influence over Suzuki’s management.”

“It was made very clear when we tied up with Volkswagen that we did not want to become consolidated, and that we would remain independent,” Harayama said.

Before anything will happen between Suzuki and Volkswagen, the deal needs to be renegotiated.

One of the pillars of public relations is „do good and tell the world about it.“

Not in Japan. Here, the rule goes “do good and keep your mouth shut.” Hard-hit Japanese carmakers have been at the forefront of aid to tsunami-ravaged areas. Toyota for instance sent some 100 tractor-trailer loads of fuel, food and other necessities up north to Tohoku – in utter secrecy. Honda said they donated 1,000 generators and 5,000 gas canisters, and never talked again about the bulk of the help.

None of the CEOs of large car companies are seen on TV shaking hands of dealers and donating cars to the cause. This leaves a void, and nature abhors a vacuum. Nature does, and Carlos Ghosn.

Nissan and Mitsubishi are edging even closer. Now, they inked a production deal where Mitsubishi produces the Navara pickup trucks for Nissan at Mitsubishi’s plant in Thailand. Production will start “in fiscal 2012,” which starts on April 1, 2012.

“Producing in Japan will remain extremely difficult as long as the conditions don’t change,” said Akio Toyoda today, and appealed to the Japanese government to “level the playing field.” Toyota did some leveling of its own. In a big board meeting, Toyota leveled swaths of corporate structures.

On Tuesday, I will go to the Fuji racetrack in the hills halfway between Tokyo and Nagoya. I will test drive a Toyota that is not available in Japan, nor is it in the U.S. It is however available and quite a success in India. Can you guess which one it is?

When I pointed at the map, my wife mentioned that her father, bless his heart, has some real estate in Yugawara, and that she has the keys. Yugawara, famous for its hot springs and not much else, sits right smack in the middle of the area which has an 87 percent chance of getting hit by an earthquake with a magnitude of about 8 within the next 30 years.

I was reminded of that this morning. Instead of being woken up with kisses and a cup of coffee, the house kicked me in the butt. Earthquake.

Suzuki is not buying into the „once in a millennium tsunami.” Suzuki has a lot of its production near the waterfront in Japan’s Tokai region. Scientists give the area between Toyko and Nagoya an 87 percent chance of getting hit by an earthquake with a magnitude of about 8 within the next 30 years. Suzuki’s answer: Let’s get out of here, fast.

According to The Nikkei [sub] “Toyota Motor Corp. said Wednesday it will start offering on Thursday a free application for smartphones that sounds an alarm if the user’s home electricity use reaches a preset level.” Don’t believe it. The Nikkei made it up.

Today, I went on a very early morning Shinkansen to Nagoya. The idea was to have me kind of certified as a Toyota-accredited journalist. I don’t know whether I qualified. I flunked the required rattling-off of the 12 Toyota plants in Japan. However, I was invited into Toyoda’s house.

Japanese automakers will move their production elsewhere if the yen keeps rising. This is what Toshiyuki Shiga, chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, told The Nikkei [sub] in a very blunt interview. Shiga, who is also the COO of Nissan, said that power shortfalls and the strong yen are the biggest impediment to Japan’s most important industry.

The Nikkei [sub] says that Nissan is bringing back the Datsun brand as the badge for its low-cost offerings in emerging markets. The Nikkei is talking about cars “with a price tag of around 5,000 dollars.” The Nikkei makes this announcement without quoting sources.

New car sales in Japan dropped in June, but the drop was not as steep as it was in May.

Domestic sales of new cars and trucks, excluding minivehicles, fell 23.3percent on the year to 225,024 vehicles the Japan Automobile Dealers Association said today.

„When will it discharge?“ asked a reporter on Monday at Nissan. I ducked under my desk. “In one or two years,” answered Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn. I broke cover when I realized that they were talking about the Leaf powering the house.

Capacity, weight and price of the battery are the big challenges facing the electric car. Researchers at Sumitomo have developed a porous, sponge-like metal called “Aluminum-Celmet.” It promises to triple the capacity of lithium-ion batteries.

Here is a table of the May production numbers of Japan’s bigger carmakers. What do we see?

Toyota’s Japan production (all vehicles and brands) slumped 46.5 percent in May to 156,379 units. Overseas production did not fare much better, falling 43.3 percent to 196,073 units. All in all, Toyota’s global production plummeted 44.7 percent in May to just 352,452 units. Could it be any worse? Yes, it can: Exports from Japan cratered 61.7 percent to 47,167 units.

“And it goes like [human excrement],” said a freshly minted Nissan spokesperson who requested anonymity on account of him having been on the job for only two weeks. The “it” was Nissan’s latest racecar. It needed a special announcement, because it entered the hall with utmost stealth. None of the usual straight pipe roar. The Nissan Nismo racer is silent power.

Eight percent global market share. Eight percent operating profit. And all of that by 2016 – two times eight, get it? In Nissan’s glitzy waterfront headquarters in Yokohama, CEO Carlos Ghosn today presented a six year plan, called “Power 88.” The plan is audacious and auspicious at the same time.

Let’s do the auspicious part first.

In what could possibly raise eyebrows in Wolfsburg, Suzuki is getting cozier with Fiat. According to The Nikkei [sub], Fiat will supply Suzuki with 20,000 to 30,000 1.6-liter diesel engines per year. The engines will be built in Europe. Suzuki plans to use the engines in the SX4, which was jointly developed with Fiat, at Suzuki’s assembly plant in Hungary.

There is no replacement for displacement? How about a roadster “powered” by a 0.66 liter engine (yes, 40 ci, give or take a thimble) that is not allowed to make more than 63 hp?

When you have nothing else to do down the road and read Japanese car import statistics, and when you will see a small bump of imports from Europe to Japan, remember what you did read here. Toyota will start importing its UK-made Avensis to Japan, where it will go on sale on September 19 for 2.5 million yen ($31,000).

Carlos Ghosn had reason to be beaming and relaxed last night in Tokyo. Last night, he said “Well, we are going to show you the numbers tomorrow, and they will be significantly higher than in 2010.” Today, Ghosn did not disappoint.

Japanese automakers are gearing up in earnest to make up for production lost after the March 11 tsunami. Across the island nation, there are new signs of resurgence. They read “we hire” (or Japanese words to that effect.) Automakers are hiring thousands of contract workers that had been let go after the financial crisis.

The Chinese quest to own a large Chinese automaker with global reach fell on sympathetic ears with someone who should be scared of the yellow peril: Carlos Ghosn. After all,Ghosn is in charge of two automakers. Nissan is the largest Japanese brand in China. Renault is trying to get traction in China. At the Thomson Reuters Newsmaker event in Tokyo today, Ghosn said he does not only expect one or two large Chinese automakers to emerge on the global market, he also understands why.

First, Ghosn had interesting news for those who think there is no money to be made in China:

The Japanese auto industry might come back to much normal faster that thought. But then there is shippiing. It takes a while to float a few thousand cars across the Pacific. Now add high gas prices and a high demand for fuel efficient cars and you have the reason why Edmunds reports that the U.S. national inventory of the Toyota Prius is down to four-day supply. Ed Larocque, Toyota’s national marketing manager for advanced technology vehicles, told Edmunds that “production in Japan likely will return to full capacity by the end of June.” Which means that that wave of Prii won’t was ashore before end of July.

Nearly two months ago, American senators complained that China is continuing its “long history of breaking international trade rules” and that there is a “trade barrier that is designed to prevent U.S. automakers from accessing the Chinese market” for electric vehicles.

As Ed Niedermeyer said it back when, there were no new rules. There still aren’t any. If there is one man who should be up to date on rules on electric vehicles around the world and especially in China, then it’s Carlos Ghosn. After all, he did bet the future of two companies, Renault and Nissan on the future of the EV. Also, Nissan is the largest Japanese brand in China, and Nissan’s joint venture partner is Dongfeng, a company owned by China’s central government. So he should know what the rules are.

The trouble is: Carlos Ghosn has no idea.

A beaming and relaxed Carlos Ghosn dispensed a little insider knowledge tonight in Tokyo and let (surely not involuntarily) slip that there will be “significantly higher numbers tomorrow” when Nissan announces its predictions for the current fiscal year.

While Toyota is still waiting for an apology for the fakery on network TV, a visibly unrepentant ABC News proudly declares:

“ABC News Chief Investigative Correspondent Brian Ross and the ABC News Investigative Team have been awarded the 2011 National Edward R. Murrow Award for “Video Continuing Coverage” for their exclusive investigation that revealed how Toyota had for years ignored complaints from hundreds of its owners about cars suddenly accelerating out of control.”

Yesterday, The Nikkei was all worked up about a takeover of Russia’s largest automaker AvtoVaz by the Renault-Nissan Alliance. The Nikkei became so excited that it forgot simple logic. More on that here. The Nikkei had it on not so good authority that Nissan would soon buy 25 percent of the Russians, and together with Renault’s 25 percent and change, Japan and France would finally achieve what had been tried before: Rule Russia. We had our doubts.

Do you hear the big hissing sound? That’s the lukewarm air coming out of the story.

At today’s annual stockholders meeting in Toyota City, Toyota wrapped up most of the SUA and recall troubles that had plagued the company last year. Says The Nikkei [sub]: “When asked about the fallout from the recall of millions of vehicles over the past couple of years amid quality concerns, executive vice president Shinichi Sasaki thanked the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for clearing Toyota of some of the most serious allegations about defects in its vehicles.“

However, there is one man Toyota still holds a grudge against:

Yesterday, we reported that the Japanese auto industry is recovering faster than previously assumed from the effects of the March 11 tsunami. Overseas factories were expected to be affected for several more months while the problems work themselves through the long supply pipeline from Japan. Much to everybody’s surprise, the situation is improving at a faster clip at transplant factories as well. Toyota said today that North American vehicle production is expected to return to 100 percent in September.

Rumors of Renault and Nissan taking over Russia’s AvtoVaz have been around for a while. We have a new one! The Nikkei [sub] picked up indications that Nissan and Renault will take a majority in AvtoVaz, Russia’s largest automaker. Except that The Nikkei doesn’t report it as a rumor. The headline “Nissan-Renault To Take Control Of Russia’s AvtoVaz” sounds quite definite. Sadly, it is not true.

Mitsubishi wants to attack one of the biggest problems of EVs: Their lofty price. Mitsu’s i-MiEV EV retails for 3.98 million yen ($49,200). Government subsidies will slash a million (yen) off that price. Converted to dollars, that $36,900, still steep. The Nissan Leaf costs 3.76 million yen ($46,500) before subsidies and sells much better than the Mitsumobile. Now, Mitsubishi wants to lop a million yen off the i-MiEV’s sticker price.

China’s Gasgoo says that “Dongfeng Nissan has already begun preparations for domestic production of the Nissan Leaf pure electric hatchback.” Domestic as in Made-in-China. They quote Dongfeng Nissan CEO Fumiaki Matsumoto, who allegedly said: “We have already finished preparatory work for the Leaf. We hope that we can cooperate with the government and suppliers to bring over the Leaf as soon as possible.” That of course piqued our interest. After some calls, we can say with certainty: Instead of millions of Leafs roaming the streets of China tomorrow, we have a case of Lost In Translation with a French-Japanese-Chinese cast.

Japan’s major automakers appear to recover faster from the impact of the March 11 tsunami than previously feared (or hoped.) Nissan’s Executive Vice President Takao Katagiri said today that Nissan’s Japanese vehicle production in May was the same or greater than its output in the same month in the previous year.

“We will also probably be able to maintain a normal level in June,” Katagiri told The Nikkei [sub]. At the annual results conference in May, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn had predicted that the company would be back to normal by October. This remains the official party line at Nissan.

Honda joins other Japanese automakers in a delayed post-tsunami forecast. Percentage-wise, Honda expects to be much harder hit than Toyota. Honda expects a net profit of 195 billion yen ($ 2.43 billion) when the current fiscal year ends in March 2012.through March. Last year, there were 534 billion yen ($6.65 billion) left below the bottom line. That’s a decrease of 63.5 percent.

Analysts are shocked.

In the market to buy a condo in Tokyo? If you buy the right one, it will come with a car. Starting in spring 2012, Toyota plans to launch a condominium-based car-sharing program in collaboration with Japanese real estate developers.

Suzuki will finally relent and will offer a plug-in hybrid version of its bestselling Swift hatchback. A lithium-ion battery will power the car for the first 30km (18.6 miles), then a gasoline engine will produce the juice, says The Nikkei [sub].

The heads of the European automobile industry are assembling in London for their annual European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association meeting. While they were there, they dropped in with UK’s Prime Minister David Cameron to talk a little politics. Norbert Reithofer of BMW, Sergio Marchionne of Fiat, Carlos Ghosn of Renault, Nick Reilly of GM Europe and their leader Dieter Zetsche, president of the association and chief of Daimler, asked for assistance with fair free trade with major economies such as India and Japan, government support for the swift introduction of breakthrough technologies and less bureaucracy through lean regulations. All noble goals. But the BBC found a fly in the ointment:

Today, Toyota finally delivered its delayed outlook for this fiscal year. It usually is delivered at the annual results conference, but the tsunami had muddled the waters, so to speak. Now, Toyota has a bit more visibility. Today, Toyota did forecast a 35 percent fall in profit for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2012. Toyota expects to end the fiscal with a net income of 280 billion yen ($3.5 billion).

According to Reuters, that’s “well short of the consensus for a 434 billion yen profit in a poll of 23 forecasts by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.” I am proud of the optimism of the forecasters. Personally, after looking at the disaster in Japan, I hadn’t expected any profits.