Guess Which Cars Sell In Japan? Imports. Now Guess Which Ones

According to U.A.W. talking points, the Japanese car market is closed to foreign imports, and the yen is kept artificially low. Utter insanity on both counts. The customs duty on new cars imported to Japan is exactly zero, and the yen is so obscenely expensive that Japanese carmakers openly threaten to leave and privately are shifting as much production as possible out of the country. Unbeknownst to talking point readers, Japan has had a thriving car import market for decades. For more than a year, imports to Japan showed an uptick. TTAC has been taking about this for quite a while, here, then here and also here.

Today, The Nikkei [sub] did wise up to the fact that imports are getting hotter in Japan despite a tepid new car market. The Nikkei sent a reporter to an Audi showroom, interviewed a BMW customer, and noted a societal change: “My wife prefers foreign cars, so that’s why we bought one,” a bank employee who traded his domestic car for a BMW told The Nikkei. “They have lower fuel efficiency than Japanese cars, but that is not a big problem because we drive only on weekends.”

Now what’s really going on with imports to Japan? Let’s look at it a little closer.

At first glance, we see that Japan has been importing foreign cars for quite a while in decent quantities. The peak was in 1994 with nearly 400,000 units. The low was in 2009, when everything was low. In 2010, unit sales were already above 200,000 with a trend up. Market share gives a better picture than units sales. We show the import share of passenger vehicles, because that’s what’s mostly imported. The 8 percent market share in 2011 is as of September 2011, we don’t show unit sales for that year, because we don’t have them yet. They will be up.

Now let’s look who imports the mostest. To the left, we have the September sales. The market share is the share of all imports, not the share of the total market. We see the September sales 2010, and the growth compared to September 2010. Then, the whole experiment again for the first nine months.

GrowthVolkswagen Group9,25527.24%6,63039.59%53,66025.97%51,5464.10%VW6,44418.96%4,55741.41%37,29018.05%38,192-2.36%Audi2,7838.19%2,05035.76%16,2147.85%13,20422.80%Bentley160.05%19-15.79%850.04%101-15.84%Lamborghini100.03%4150.00%690.03%4843.75%Bugatti20.01%20.00%1100.00%Nissan6,01517.70%6,605-8.93%41,96120.31%16,913148.10%BMW Group5,94317.49%5,4958.15%34,75816.82%32,3407.48%BMW4,16512.26%4,1300.85%24,00511.62%23,4152.52%BMW MINI1,7585.17%1,32632.58%10,5765.12%8,71421.37%BMW Alpina170.05%21-19.05%1140.06%159-28.30%Rolls Royce30.01%18-83.33%630.03%5221.15%Daimler4,92914.51%4,7833.05%25,64412.41%25,1152.11%Mercedes-Benz4,68813.80%4,701-0.28%24,64511.93%24,2931.45%smart2400.71%82192.68%9900.48%82020.73%Maybach10.00%90.00%2350.00%Fiat-Chrysler1,7435.13%1,51914.75%10,2244.95%8,88315.10%Fiat8172.40%882-7.37%4,4792.17%4,3772.33%Jeep4351.28%27458.76%2,4071.16%1,42269.27%Alfa Romeo1980.58%15626.92%1,5420.75%1,22525.88%Dodge1740.51%68155.88%7830.38%63223.89%Chrysler410.12%75-45.33%4490.22%630-28.73%Maserati360.11%2924.14%2000.10%217-7.83%Ferrari310.09%2810.71%2940.14%332-11.45%Lancia110.03%757.14%700.03%4845.83%Toyota1,4244.19%1,10229.22%10,0314.85%6,97343.85%Volvo1,6054.72%96167.01%8,1723.95%5,64744.71%PSA Group1,0783.17%1,230-12.36%6,7843.28%6,2308.89%Peugeot6982.05%874-20.14%4,5692.21%4,573-0.09%Citroen3801.12%3566.74%2,2151.07%1,65733.68%Suzuki2280.67%402-43.28%2,8951.40%3,517-17.69%Porsche3921.15%21879.82%2,5971.26%2,5103.47%Ford3521.04%31810.69%2,4211.17%2,2955.49%Renault3541.04%24544.49%2,3161.12%2,03613.75%General Motors2930.86%18955.03%2,2131.07%1,77424.75%Chevrolet1560.46%64143.75%8640.42%67627.81%Cadillac1060.31%979.28%1,0370.50%74539.19%Hummer180.05%21-14.29%2180.11%276-21.01%GMC100.03%666.67%840.04%7020.00%Buick20.01%1100.00%80.00%560.00%DAEWOO10.00%20.00%2JLR Group1820.54%199-8.54%1,5070.73%1,3719.92%Jaguar1170.34%127-7.87%7770.38%808-3.84%Land Rover650.19%72-9.72%7300.35%56329.66%Honda1100.32%101000.00%8000.39%72310.65%Lotus310.09%1963.16%2160.10%226-4.42%Mitsubishi30.01%19-84.21%1010.05%148-31.76%Aston Martin80.02%13-38.46%1000.05%8419.05%Hyundai120.04%26-53.85%680.03%182-62.64%Saab70.02%1600.00%490.02%4119.51%Rover30.01%10-70.00%320.02%47-31.91%Morgan30.01%3130.01%1118.18%MG10.00%2-50.00%70.00%616.67%Detomaso10.00%30.00%1200.00%Pontiac180.00%633.33%GMDAT140.00%5-20.00%Unimog40.00%Kia30.00%250.00%Autobianchi20.00%1100.00%Mini10.00%2-50.00%Opel10.00%4-75.00%Saturn10.00%2-50.00%Subaru1-100.00%Others80.023266.7520.034515.56%Total33,980100.0030,004113.3206,648100.00168,687122.5

Source: Japan Automobile Importers Association

What do we see? As long as I can remember, Volkswagen had been the largest importer to Japan. This year, only by cumulating all brands of the Volkswagen Group could we defend that honor. On a single brand basis, Nissan would be the largest importer to Japan. Next in line are the usual suspects BMW and Daimler, followed way back in the field by a motley crew of Fiat-Chrysler brands. And what’s next? Toyota already imports the same amount as all Fiat-Chrysler brands. Ford and GM are way back in the field.

Imagine: Little Porsche sells more cars in Japan than Ford and all of GM. The reason for the low sales of U.S. cars in Japan is simple: People want imported cars alright. People just don’t get excited about American cars. Fiat’s stepchild Alfa Romeo sells better than the bestselling GM brand, the Cadillac.

Now look at the growth rates of cars that sell in appreciable numbers. The Germans are not growing by much. What is really growing are – Japanese imports! Nissan already imported nearly three times as many cars for the year than in the same period of 2010. Toyota is stepping up imports also. In the preceding year, Toyota imported 10,000 units per annum. This year, the 10,000 mark was already reached in September. Already, 27 percent of the cars imported to Japan are Japanese brands.

If the yen remains strong, expect this trend to continue.