#May2012

Europe’s car market is slowly swirling down the drain. Sales in May were down by 8.7 percent. Five months into the year, the market is down 7.7 percent.

Europe’s best-selling cars are impacted disproportionately. Eight out of ten suffered double-digit percentage losses. Only one car managed a slight increase in May.

The European car market – if taken together, the world’s second largest behind China and before the U.S. – continues its slow drift to the bottom. Sales in May were down by 8.7 percent in the EU. This is the eighth month in a row that sales are in minus territory. Five months into the year, the market is down 7.7 percent.

If you read Volkswagen’s global sales report for May, you get the impression that this was yet another great month. Global sales are up 7.8 percent in May. Things don’t look so rosy when you analyze the numbers a bit further.

TTAC’s patent-pending China sales oracle is back to old form again. A few days ago, GM China reported a May sales increase of 21.3 percent. Today, China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced its official numbers, and sales are reported to be up 22.6 percent in May.

Up until last month. the German car market was oblivious to the European carnage that had started in Mediterranean countries. and then slowly crawled north. In May. the car consumption disease arrived inside of Germany’s borders.

This is the list of America’s best-selling cars and trucks of may and year-to-date.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)13.0%14.0%36.0%14.33.8%9.0%12.8%2Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)17.0%11.0%33.0%14.55.2%11.0%16.2%3Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)11.0%9.4%40.0%14.23.0%13.6%16.6%4Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)11.0%16.0%42.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%5Patrick Archambault (Goldman)15.0%10.0%38.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)13.0%12.0%44.0%14.44.5%17.0%21.5%7Brian Johnson (Barclays)16.0%15.0%42.0%14.44.5%19.0%23.5%8Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)18.0%11.0%41.0%14.44.5%20.0%24.5%9John Sousanis (Ward’s)15.0%15.0%45.0%14.66.0%21.0%27.0%10Joseph Spak (RBC)16.0%10.0%NA14.44.5%108.0%112.5%11George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA14.23.0%300.0%303.0%12Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.33.8%300.0%303.8%13Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%14Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%Average15.0%12.0%40.0%14.4Actual11.0%13.0%30.0%13.8

The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday.

Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment.

GM up 11 percent. Ford up 13 percent. Chrysler up 30 percent. Nissan up 21 percent. Volkswagen up 28 percent. Toyota up a whopping 87 percent. A few months ago, these numbers would have set champagne corks and fireworks flying. Today, these numbers were greeted by a communal meh and by stocks of automakers going south.

Domestic sales of new cars, trucks and buses in Japan rose 66.4% from a year earlier in May, data provided by Japanese industry groups show.

When new car sales will be announced on June 1, sales could be up by 30 percent, thinks Kelley Blue Book. When sales approach 1.4 million units, or 14.2 million seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) in May, Kelley expects GM and Ford to underperform the market, while Toyota could nearly double its sales and surpass Ford in market share.