May Sales: Great, But Not Great Enough For Spoiled Analysts

GM up 11 percent. Ford up 13 percent. Chrysler up 30 percent. Nissan up 21 percent. Volkswagen up 28 percent. Toyota up a whopping 87 percent. A few months ago, these numbers would have set champagne corks and fireworks flying. Today, these numbers were greeted by a communal meh and by stocks of automakers going south.

People who only read headlines may think the sky is falling. “May auto sales disappoint; demand slows,” headlines Reuters.

The numbers are great, but not good enough for high expectations, caused by optimistic forecasts and exuberant analyst notes. If you don’t meet sky-high expectations, you get slaughtered.

Ironically, falling gas prices are fingered to dissuade people from buying cars. Swiss bank UBS says that higher fuel prices in the first quarter prompted consumers to swap older, less fuel-efficient models to lock in fuel savings.

Also, there is fear that the pent-up demand is not what it was said to be. Students of car crises know that steep falls are usually followed by a sudden pop until the market finds its new groove. The fear is that sales in the past months were the pop, and that we are heading into the groove. Whatever the groove may be.

AutomakerMay 2012May 2011Pct. chng.5 month

20125 month

2011Pct. chng.BMW Group28,35326,4827%131,003116,80612% BMW division22,16820,6517%104,77992,06817% Mini6,1535,8016%26,06424,5886% Rolls-Royce32307%1601507%BMW Group28,35326,4827%131,003116,80612%Chrysler Group150,041115,36330%689,257519,53833% Chrysler Division29,67416,36481%140,89179,53977% Dodge45,79340,20014%217,263186,49717% Dodge/Ram72,16661,66717%334,636284,04818% Fiat4,0031,759128%16,7023,141432% Jeep44,19835,57324%197,028152,81029% Ram26,37321,46723%117,37397,55120%Chrysler Group150,041115,36330%689,257519,53833%Daimler AG25,26320,80022%117,25897,69220% Maybach4333%201533% Mercedes-Benz24,55620,30521%113,50795,45119% Smart USA70349243%3,7312,22668%Daimler AG25,26320,80022%117,25897,69220% Ford Motor Co.215,699191,52913%933,179876,3217% Ford division208,425184,13013%898,761841,4317% Lincoln7,2747,399–2%34,41834,642–1% Mercury–––%–248–100%Ford Motor Co.215,699191,52913%933,179876,3217%General Motors245,256221,19211%1,066,9631,046,2752% Buick18,56515,57919%71,34778,731–9% Cadillac9,87111,623–15%50,68865,262–22% Chevrolet177,943161,40110%781,564747,7005% GMC38,87732,58919%163,364154,5826%General Motors245,256221,19211%1,066,9631,046,2752%Honda (American)133,99790,77348%576,174523,55010% Acura14,5869,00062%57,56651,97211% Honda Division119,41181,77346%518,608471,57810%Honda (American)133,99790,77348%576,174523,55010%Hyundai Group118,790107,42611%530,237463,64714% Hyundai division67,01959,21413%292,856263,58811% Kia51,77148,2127%237,381200,05919%Hyundai Group118,790107,42611%530,237463,64714%Jaguar Land Rover4,5134,1628%22,86519,16119% Jaguar1,0751,271–15%5,4765,0219% Land Rover3,4382,89119%17,38914,14023%Jaguar Land Rover4,5134,1628%22,86519,16119%Maserati22620610%1,06090817%Maserati22620610%1,06090817%Mazda20,35717,87514%123,886103,07220%Mazda20,35717,87514%123,886103,07220%Mitsubishi5,5757,568-26%27,46235,816–23%Mitsubishi5,5757,568-26%27,46235,816–23%Nissan91,79476,14821%485,484433,03212% Infiniti10,5926,38966%43,94140,9867% Nissan Division81,20269,75916%441,543392,04613%Nissan91,79476,14821%485,484433,03212%Porsche2,8522,8171%13,44812,9964%Porsche2,8522,8171%13,44812,9964%Saab Cars North America–383–100%–3,148–100%Saab–383–100%–3,148–100%Subaru29,72420,03648%136,602112,25522%Subaru29,72420,03648%136,602112,25522%Suzuki2,3602,2903%10,69611,125–4%Suzuki2,3602,2903%10,69611,125–4%Toyota202,973108,38787%868,300701,85124% Lexus21,46312,30574%88,11077,23714% Scion6,0474,69629%26,72123,16515% Toyota division175,46391,38692%753,469601,44925% Toyota/Scion181,51096,08289%780,190624,61425%Toyota202,973108,38787%868,300701,85124%Volkswagen50,36140,78324%223,903172,20430% Audi11,50310,45710%52,49445,85815% Bentley201226–11%85466528% VW division38,65730,10028%170,555125,68136%Volkswagen50,36140,78324%223,903172,20430%Volvo Cars NA6,2467,359–15%27,51129,203–6%Volvo Cars NA6,2467,359–15%27,51129,203–6%Other (estimate)2622562%1,3101,2773%TOTAL1,334,6421,061,83526%5,986,5985,279,87713%

Table courtesy Automotive News [sub]