Cain's Segments: Q1 2014 Full-Size Truck Sales

Timothy Cain
by Timothy Cain

Year-over-year comparisons are a completely valid comparison tool, indeed a vital one, when analyzing the sales volume reported by automobile manufacturers. The auto industry is seasonal; cyclical at the best of times. The number of vehicles sold in say, January, bears little resemblance to the number of vehicles sold in May.

Studying the market share changes from one month to the next, rather than in a year-over-year fashion, is also a perfectly useful yardstick, even if certain automakers do uniquely prioritize certain seasons. And so we consider America’s March 2014 pickup truck sales figures, in which GM’s two full-size trucks suffered a market share decline in the full-size truck category from 32.1% in March 2013 to 31.9% in March 2014.

Yet much worse was the drop from February’s 35% (which itself was down from 39.1% in the previous February) to last month’s 31.9%. The market share owned by the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra in January 2014 was, at 33.3%, also superior to March’s tally, and also way down from the previous January’s 38.9%.

News that the Ram P/U – formerly known as the Dodge Ram – outsold the Silverado in March was greeted both by many a headline and a harsh rebuke from General Motors. Regardless of how you view the General Motors truck partnership, as a solitary unit with two faces or as two separate entities, GM’s twins outsold the Ram by 16,578 units in March.

Ram sales shot up 26% to 42,532 units, equal to 22.9% of the full-size truck category. Those gains undoubtedly ate into GM’s total, but the Ram and Toyota Tundra also worked together to steal some of Ford’s market share, as well.

Ford’s slower growth is more understandable and more acceptable given the state of their current truck. It’s about to be replaced. Meanwhile, Ford topped 70,000 F-Series sales for the fourth time in the last eleven months, no mean feat.

With 11,589 sales, Toyota topped the 10K mark for the fourth time in the last eight months. Toyota had done so only twice in the previous 31 months. At the current pace, Toyota could sell more than 130,000 Tundras in America for the first time since 2008. In fact, Toyota hadn’t sold this many Tundras in a single month since August of that year. Clearly Tundra volume remains low in comparison to Detroit’s big trucks, but that doesn’t make it a rarely seen vehicle. The Tundra ranked 41st among all new vehicle nameplates in Q1, up from 48th in the Q1 of 2013.

Purely on volume terms, Toyota’s 25% increase was moderate. 2319 more Tundras were sold in March 2014 than in March 2013; Chevy’s 7% March improvement equalled 2686 extra sales. 2014 marked the fifth consecutive year in which Silverado volume improved in the month of March. The problem for General Motors, from an outsider’s perspective, isn’t the Ram’s ability to grab the number two spot, nor is it the fact that Silverado growth was well below the segment’s average. GM points to transaction prices – and Chrysler’s incentives – as a sign of health, and one wouldn’t dare argue that making more money off more trucks is a bad thing.

Yet a strategy that consistently requires the Silverado and Sierra to eat an increasingly smaller portion of an increasingly larger pie is a scheme that’s not terribly worthy of applause in one of the most hotly-contested, highest-volume vehicle categories in the industry.

TruckMarch2014March2013%Change3 mos.20143 mos.2013%ChangeFord F-Series70,94067,513+ 5.1%173,358168,843+ 5.4%Ram P/U42,53233,831+ 25.7%96,90677,594+ 24.9%Chevrolet Silverado42,24739,561+ 6.8%107,757116,649– 7.6%GMC Sierra16,86313,817+ 22.0%42,21340,796+ 3.5%Toyota Tundra11,5899270+ 25.0%27,40223,580+ 16.2%Nissan Titan13142084– 36.9%33185112– 35.1%—— —————Total185,485 166,076 + 11.7%450,954 432,574 + 4.2%TruckMarch2014ShareMarch2013Share3 mos. 2014 Share3 mos. 2013ShareFord F-Series38.2%40.7%38.4%39.0%Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra31.9%32.1%33.3%36.4%Ram P/U22.9%20.4%21.5%17.9%Toyota Tundra6.2%5.6%6.1%5.5%Nissan Titan0.7%1.3%0.7%1.2%—————Full-Size Share Of Total Pickup Truck Market89.8%86.1%88.8%86.8%Full-Size Pickup Share Of Total Industry12.1%11.4%12.0%11.7%
Timothy Cain
Timothy Cain

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  • APaGttH APaGttH on Apr 05, 2014

    So Ford and GM are not able to gain any appreciable marketshare because the F-150 is up for refresh, the Silverado/Sierra missed the mark miserably, and the RAM is better than both of them. The Tundra is gaining marketshare not due to a better mouse trap, but by having a lower transaction price than the Italian and two Detroit pickup options. The Ram is just feckin' good - well optioned - well marketed - and offers a wide range of choices from value to luxury. They got that one very right. If there is a silver lining (no pun intended) it does seem that GM is far less dependent on North American sales of big truck to be profitable compared to 10 or 15 years ago.

  • Lou_BC Lou_BC on Apr 05, 2014

    @APaGttH "If there is a silver lining (no pun intended) it does seem that GM is far less dependent on North American sales of big truck to be profitable compared to 10 or 15 years ago." That is true since Barclays and other analysts have said this has been a poor truck launch for GM. 2018 will seem like an eternity if these trucks keep loosing market share. Globally GM has slipped to 3rd place behind Toyota and VW. Both companies including Ford posted considerably higher profits than GM. Ram has come out aggressively with some interesting options. They just need to move up in ranks in relation to durability. Ram HD's were rated 3rd by JD Power in a 3 truck market. Ram 1500's don't even rate in JD Power's top 3. Vincentric did pick Ram as the best (cost of ownership)personal use 1 ton HD, GM as the best 3/4 ton and Ford F150 the best 1/2 ton. The 2014 fleet results are not out yet. Last year, oddly enough, Ram got the pick for best personal use HD and GM got the pick for the best fleet HD. Ford F150 won both categories. True Delta shows big improvement in Ram.

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