Toyota today announced global production data for September. Worldwide production for Toyota, Daihatsu and Hino was down 5.8 percent in September, which saw Chinese factories closed and sales boycotted. January through September, global production is up 37.6 percent to 7,681,891 units.
Yes it is that time of the month, the time for our acclaimed monthly rendezvous: the World Roundup, now in its 7th installment.
You can check out previous World Roundups here for March 2012 (“Has the Hybrid era started for good?”), April 2012 (“Big change coming from India”), May 2012 (“GM and Toyota Etios make headlines”), June 2012 (“Geely CK writes history in Ukraine“) and July 2012 (“The Subaru XV topples a legend in Switzerland”).
Had enough of the world and you just want to know which cars sell best in your own backyard? Easy. You can visit 170 countries and territories in my blog, one by one, in the comfort of your own lounge. Yes sir.
Back to our Roundup.
The European new passenger car market accelerated its downward trend in September. According to data release by the European manufacturer body ACEA, Registrations were down 10.8 percent YoY to 1,099,264 units in the EU. Nine months into the year, the market contracted 7.6 percent to 9,368,327 units registered January through September 2012.
Vehicle sales in China were down 1.75 percent compared to the same month last year, says the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). An official of the CAAM blamed it on the Japanese.
Volkswagen hasn’t published its group sales for September yet (it is expected to do so later in the week), but Reuters already saw a PowerPoint slide with 6.802 million vehicles on it, sold between January and September. This would mean an increase of 10.6 percent in the first nine months. Volkswagen published Audi sales yesterday, and Volkswagen Passenger Vehicle sales (see below) today. Looking at these numbers, the 6.8 million are quite possible.
Smiles in Ingolstadt and Wolfsburg, where Audi contributes 40 percent of Volkswagen Group’s profits: Audi’s global sales climbed 13.6 percent in September to 136,600 units delivered worldwide. 1,097,500 cars were sold in the first nine months, 12.8 percent more than in the prior-year period.
Some have quietly or openly been hoping the GM could cash-in on the misery of Japanese brands in China. It’s not happening. Sales across all of GM’s Chinese joint ventures were up a marginal 1.7 percent in September while sales of German marques received a boost.
RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)1.9%0.7%8.4%14.43.6%4.5%8.1%2Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)2.5%1.3%8.1%14.62.3%6.0%8.3%3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)3.7%2.2%6.1%14.52.9%10.1%13.0%4Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)1.0%1.6%4.4%14.43.6%9.5%13.1%5John Sousanis (Ward’s)4.6%4.3%8.1%14.62.3%11.1%13.4%6Joseph Spak (RBC)4.0%4.9%8.0%14.52.9%11.2%14.1%7Patrick Archambault (Goldman)2.2%4.2%4.8%14.62.3%11.9%14.2%8Brian Johnson (Barclays)-1.5%-1.4%5.5%14.34.3%10.2%14.5%9Alec Gutierrez (Kelley)4.0%1.7%5.6%14.34.3%10.4%14.7%10Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)3.3%2.0%4.4%14.43.6%11.2%14.8%11Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)5.0%4.0%6.0%14.52.9%13.3%16.2%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA15.00.4%300.0%300.4%13George Magliano (IHS)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%14Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%16Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA14.43.6%300.0%303.6%Average2.8%2.3%6.3%14.50Actual1.5%-0.2%11.5%14.94
The public may have been surprised by the very strong showing of the market and the not so strong showing of GM and Ford when the September sales came in yesterday. Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar weren’t surprised at all. They called the market with high precision. Separated by only 0.2 points, Caldwell made first, Toprak second, followed far behind by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.
For most of the year, the German new car market could defy Europe’s eye-popping g-forces. No more. Germany is now officially going down with the rest of them. With 250,082 units sold in September, German new car sales dropped 10.9 percent as compared to September last year.
Sales Forecast, August 2012Sales VolumeSept’12Sept’11Aug’12YoYMoMGM211,064207,145240,5201.90%-12.20%Ford176,049174,862196,7490.70%-10.50%Toyota160,560121,451188,52032.20%-14.80%Chrysler138,030127,334148,4728.40%-7.00%Honda114,60689,532131,32128.00%-12.70%Nissan88,97792,96498,515-4.30%-9.70%Industry1,145,3441,053,1531,284,6358.80%-10.80%
A day after TrueCar and Kelley handed in their sales forecasts for September, Edmunds followed. Edmunds is more on the cautious side and projects that 1,145,344 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. this month for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million light vehicles, and up 8.8 percent from a year before.
Sales Projection For September 2012TrueCarKelleyManufacturerSept’12YoYSept’12YoYChrysler137,6128.1%134,5205.6%Ford177,0661.3%177,8401.6%GM212,2842.5%215,4604.0%Honda113,43926.7%109,44022.2%Hyundai/Kia102,28316.7%93,4806.6%Nissan92,349-0.7%92,340-0.7%Toyota161,20132.7%163,02034.2%Volkswagen48,30431.4%47,88029.7%Industry1,163,00010.5%1,140,0008.2%
The month is coming to an end. A sure indicator: The forecasters are submitting their guesses. Again, September seems to be up solidly. More. Or less.
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- Jwee I think it is short sighted and detrimental to the brand. The company should be generous to its locked-in user base, treating them as a resource, not a revenue stream.This is what builds any good relationship, generosity to the other partner. Apple does with their products. My iPhone is 5 years old, but I keep getting the latest and greatest updates for free, which makes me feel valued as a customer and adds actual value. When it is time for a new phone, Apple past treatment towards me certainly plays into my decisions (as did BMW's - so long subscription extracting pigs, its been a great 20 years). Imagine how much good will and love (and good press) Polestar would get from their user base if they gave them all a "68 fresh horses" update overnight, for free. Brand loyalty would soar (provided their car is capable).
- ToolGuy If I had some space I would offer $800 and let the vehicle sit at my place as is. Then when anyone ever asked me, "Have you ever considered owning a VW?" I would say "Yes."
- ToolGuy In the example in the linked article an automated parking spot costs roughly 3% of the purchase price of the property. If I were buying such a property, I would likely purchase two parking spots to go with it, and I'm being completely serious.(Speaking of ownership vs. subscription, the $150 monthly maintenance fee would torque me off a lot more than the initial acquisition cost.)
- ToolGuy "which will be returned as refunds to citizens of the state" - kind of like the Alaska Permanent Fund? Make the amount high enough and I will gladly move to California to take advantage (my family came close to moving there when I was a teen, and oodles of people have moved from CA to my state, so I'm happy to return the favor).Note to California: You probably do not want me as a citizen.
- ToolGuy Nice torque figure.