By on September 26, 2012
Sales Projection For September 2012
TrueCar Kelley
Manufacturer Sept’12 YoY Sept’12 YoY
Chrysler 137,612 8.1% 134,520 5.6%
Ford 177,066 1.3% 177,840 1.6%
GM 212,284 2.5% 215,460 4.0%
Honda 113,439 26.7% 109,440 22.2%
Hyundai/Kia 102,283 16.7% 93,480 6.6%
Nissan 92,349 -0.7% 92,340 -0.7%
Toyota 161,201 32.7% 163,020 34.2%
Volkswagen 48,304 31.4% 47,880 29.7%
Industry 1,163,000 10.5% 1,140,000 8.2%

The month is coming to an end. A sure indicator: The forecasters are submitting their guesses. Again, September seems to be up solidly. More. Or less.

 TrueCar expects that 1,163,000 units will change hands in September, up 10.5 percent from September 2011 and down 9.5 percent from a very hot August 2012. The Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) is expected to be 14.6 million, up from 13.1 million in September 2011 and up slightly from 14.5 million in August 2012.

Kelley is a bit more cautious, sees a SAAR at 14.3 million, and sales up 8 percent.

Market Share  Projection For September 2012
TrueCar Kelley
Manufacturer Sept’12 Sept’11 Sept’12 Sept’11
Chrysler 11.80% 12.1% 11.80% 12.1%
Ford 15.20% 16.6% 15.60% 16.6%
GM 18.30% 19.7% 18.90% 19.7%
Honda 9.80% 8.5% 9.60% 8.5%
Hyundai/Kia 8.80% 8.3% 8.20% 8.3%
Nissan 7.90% 8.8% 8.10% 8.8%
Toyota 13.90% 11.5% 14.30% 11.5%
Volkswagen 4.20% 3.5% 4.20% 3.5%

Detroit is projected to lose market share, Tokyo, Seoul, and Wolfsburg are said to win, Yokohama is projected to shed some more.

Given the hearty sales, incentive spending is expected to be restraint at $2,468 on the average hood, down  6.7 percent from September 2011, and down 1.2 percent from August 2012. Chrysler is expected to be most generous with $3,256 for each car on average, followed by GM and Nissan.

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15 Comments on “September Up 10 Percent, Says TrueCar. Kelley Says A Little Less...”

  • avatar

    Want to bet Chrysler does better than predictions? They always seem to!

  • avatar

    VW is really moving the metal. With the Jetta, Beetle, and Passat new and targeted at the US market, sales were certainly expected to grow. Otherwise they wouldn’t have built a new factory here. How are results measuring up to VW’s expectations?

    • 0 avatar

      Looking at the data VW will be around 450,000 for the year (were at 286K up to August). They aimed for 800K in 2018 and assumed a growing US market, probably back to somewhere around a 17M market. If they continue with this growth, by bringing out a competitive compact CUV to replace the Tiguan, a midsize Pilot type SUV and get fuel efficient engines in the Jetta and Passat (scheduled for next year) then they have a good chance. Otherwise the current range will not get them to the target. They have shown a seriousness about cracking the US market so I fully expect a CRV clone in the near future which would add at least 100K in units compared to the lackluster (saleswise) Tiguan.

    • 0 avatar

      Sales have grown exponentially for VW, but VW is padding sales with sales to fleet.

    • 0 avatar

      I would have never thought about buying a VW, but for my next new car purchase, I will give VW a look. I’m frankly done with UAW built vehicles.

  • avatar

    Why does Ford keep losing market share? I feel like their line up is quite competitive and so I’m a little confused. Any theories?

    • 0 avatar

      The only thing keeping Ford’s ever-improving product lineup from increasing their market share is Sticker Shock. That and questionable reliability post-launch, automatic transmissions that irritate customers, and infotainment systems that are too slow or too complicated, but all of that could be overlooked if it weren’t for the insane Sticker Shock.

      • 0 avatar

        I agree with the sticker shock comment. The crazy thing in my eyes is that Ford prices a new car, lets say the new Fusion and then even before it is available for sale they offer $1000 off. Why not just cut the MSRP by $1000? Is it that Americans expect “money-off”, so the price is inflated to allow incentives to be offered immediately?

    • 0 avatar

      probably because a lot of growth didnt come naturally – it was due to last year natural disasters and Toyota’s recalls of 2010.

      Reality is settling down now, and maybe in 2014 we will see what happens. Next year will see new Corolla, Rav4, Accord come out and thats not going to be pretty.

    • 0 avatar

      Due to the anomaly of last year’s sales figures arising from the effects of the tsunami on the Japanese, both Ford and GM can increase sales and yet see a decrease in marketshare.

  • avatar

    Yeah, we know already the new Corolla, Accord, and RAV4 won’t be very pretty. The Japanese make such awful looking cars. It’s an achievement that they can bring ugly, boring and old looking into one package. The new Fusion makes Japanese cars look Soviet.

    2 of Ford’s big volume vehicles (Fusion and Escape) are new models being phased in.

    • 0 avatar

      Just FYI, the new Accord has launched. You can go to your local dealer now and see it in person for yourself. Whether you admire or pan this product of Marysville, Ohio is your call. Regardless, Honda is rocking the sales chart.

  • avatar

    If only the Yellowstone caldera would erupt with the force of a thousand Krakatoas.

    The demand for used and new vehicles would be immense, along with the powered equipment to clean up the mess.

    The abrasive ash would ruin a multitude of engines and the demand for repairs, etc. would be a tremendous boost to the USA economy.

    A bright golden prosperous future awaits, crying out for vast amounts of magma to be squeezed from the Earth’s bowels akin to an acne-ridden teenager popping a pesky pimple.

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