September Up 10 Percent, Says TrueCar. Kelley Says A Little Less

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Sales Projection For September 2012TrueCarKelleyManufacturerSept’12YoYSept’12YoYChrysler137,6128.1%134,5205.6%Ford177,0661.3%177,8401.6%GM212,2842.5%215,4604.0%Honda113,43926.7%109,44022.2%Hyundai/Kia102,28316.7%93,4806.6%Nissan92,349-0.7%92,340-0.7%Toyota161,20132.7%163,02034.2%Volkswagen48,30431.4%47,88029.7%Industry1,163,00010.5%1,140,0008.2%

The month is coming to an end. A sure indicator: The forecasters are submitting their guesses. Again, September seems to be up solidly. More. Or less.

TrueCar expects that 1,163,000 units will change hands in September, up 10.5 percent from September 2011 and down 9.5 percent from a very hot August 2012. The Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) is expected to be 14.6 million, up from 13.1 million in September 2011 and up slightly from 14.5 million in August 2012.

Kelley is a bit more cautious, sees a SAAR at 14.3 million, and sales up 8 percent.

Market Share Projection For September 2012TrueCarKelleyManufacturerSept’12Sept’11Sept’12Sept’11Chrysler11.80%12.1%11.80%12.1%Ford15.20%16.6%15.60%16.6%GM18.30%19.7%18.90%19.7%Honda9.80%8.5%9.60%8.5%Hyundai/Kia8.80%8.3%8.20%8.3%Nissan7.90%8.8%8.10%8.8%Toyota13.90%11.5%14.30%11.5%Volkswagen4.20%3.5%4.20%3.5%

Detroit is projected to lose market share, Tokyo, Seoul, and Wolfsburg are said to win, Yokohama is projected to shed some more.

Given the hearty sales, incentive spending is expected to be restraint at $2,468 on the average hood, down 6.7 percent from September 2011, and down 1.2 percent from August 2012. Chrysler is expected to be most generous with $3,256 for each car on average, followed by GM and Nissan.

Join the conversation
14 of 15 comments
  • CJinSD CJinSD on Sep 26, 2012

    VW is really moving the metal. With the Jetta, Beetle, and Passat new and targeted at the US market, sales were certainly expected to grow. Otherwise they wouldn't have built a new factory here. How are results measuring up to VW's expectations?

    • See 2 previous
    • AJ AJ on Sep 27, 2012

      I would have never thought about buying a VW, but for my next new car purchase, I will give VW a look. I'm frankly done with UAW built vehicles.

  • Tatracitroensaab Tatracitroensaab on Sep 26, 2012

    Why does Ford keep losing market share? I feel like their line up is quite competitive and so I'm a little confused. Any theories?

    • See 3 previous
    • Bd2 Bd2 on Sep 26, 2012

      Due to the anomaly of last year's sales figures arising from the effects of the tsunami on the Japanese, both Ford and GM can increase sales and yet see a decrease in marketshare.

  • Billfrombuckhead Billfrombuckhead on Sep 26, 2012

    Yeah, we know already the new Corolla, Accord, and RAV4 won't be very pretty. The Japanese make such awful looking cars. It's an achievement that they can bring ugly, boring and old looking into one package. The new Fusion makes Japanese cars look Soviet. 2 of Ford's big volume vehicles (Fusion and Escape) are new models being phased in.

    • SherbornSean SherbornSean on Sep 26, 2012

      Just FYI, the new Accord has launched. You can go to your local dealer now and see it in person for yourself. Whether you admire or pan this product of Marysville, Ohio is your call. Regardless, Honda is rocking the sales chart.

  • Obbop Obbop on Sep 26, 2012

    If only the Yellowstone caldera would erupt with the force of a thousand Krakatoas. The demand for used and new vehicles would be immense, along with the powered equipment to clean up the mess. The abrasive ash would ruin a multitude of engines and the demand for repairs, etc. would be a tremendous boost to the USA economy. A bright golden prosperous future awaits, crying out for vast amounts of magma to be squeezed from the Earth's bowels akin to an acne-ridden teenager popping a pesky pimple.

    • See 1 previous
    • Obbop Obbop on Sep 28, 2012

      @Beerboy12 Yeah... rain upon my virtual parade, why dontcha'?