2018: The Year You Might - Just Maybe - Buy Your First (Sort of) Electric Vehicle

Steph Willems
by Steph Willems

The odds are still stacked against such a purchase, but next year stands to become the greatest year yet for vehicles not entirely powered by internal combustion.

In its look at industry trends for 2018, Edmunds reveals a number of no-brainers: the passenger car segment continues its sad decline, luxury SUVs remain a massive growth market, and the amount of new car buyers choosing to lease remains static at 30 percent.

One segment, however, stands to hit the accelerator next year. Green vehicles — covering the hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle segments — will break out of the micro-niche category and catapult firmly into the “niche, but approaching mainstream” realm.

In its study, Edmunds concludes green vehicles will top 4 percent of the U.S. new car market sometime in 2018. Energized in large part by the Tesla Model 3, plug-in vehicle sales are set to double next year, with the broader green segment ultimately reaching 4.4 percent of the market.

Conventional hybrids won’t benefit from the public’s newfound enthusiasm for electrification, but EVs sure will. From a U.S. market share of 0.61 percent in November 2017, electric vehicles will make up 1.7 percent of the new car landscape next year, Edmunds claims. Coupled with plug-in hybrids, sales of vehicles equipped with a charging port should surpass that of their hybrid brethren.

Still, timing is everything, and the Model 3’s bumpy ramp-up casts plenty of uncertainty over the prediction. Assuming Tesla reaches its goal of 5,000 Model 3s per week sometime in the second quarter of 2018, the numbers should hold. Helping green market share is a declining thirst for new vehicles. Edmunds predicts 16.8 million new vehicles sold in the U.S. this year, followed by another decline in 2018. According to The Detroit News, Cox Automotive sees 16.6 million vehicles sold in 2017; IHS Markit predicts 16.9 million.

Looking at last month’s sales, the green car take rate stood at 3.39 percent. Multiplying November’s volume by 12 brings an annual figure of roughly 16.6 million, similar to some predictions for 2018. If Model 3 production hits 5,000 vehicles/month over a period like November (with all other electric vehicles sales remaining the same), the EV take rate would stand at 2.15 percent.

Of course, the Model 3 isn’t the only factor. It’s the biggest, yes, but we still don’t know where Chevrolet Bolt demand will level off. There’s a new Nissan Leaf due for 2018. As well, dedicated green models like the Honda Clarity, Hyundai Ioniq, and Kia Niro are casting vehicles into more than one category at a time, bolstering the broader planet-hugging segment.

Mild hybrids with 48-volt electrical systems are also poised to enter the market. Though these systems barely have enough electric grunt to propel a speeding car under electric propulsion alone (and certainly don’t come with a plug or capacious battery), they still count as an electrified vehicle. We can’t say how low Edmunds set the bar for its hybrid category.

[Image: Kia Motors]

Steph Willems
Steph Willems

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  • Whynotaztec Whynotaztec on Dec 31, 2017

    I took the plunge this year with a 17 Accord hybrid. It’s been great- it has power, got over 50 mpg until the deep freeze set in , and was deeply discounted. It’s a great car.

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    • Lorenzo Lorenzo on Jan 02, 2018

      @Wheatridger At least there's no more talk of everyone driving a hybrid trying to hypermile with it. The Prius is now a secretary's car, and they drive them like a bat out of hades, just like they did in their Corollas.

  • Sub-600 Sub-600 on Jan 03, 2018

    “Secretary’s car”, I haven’t heard that term in ages. That’s what they used to call 6-cylinder Mustangs waaaay back when I was a kid.

  • The Oracle Well, we’re 3-4 years in with the Telluride and right around the time the long term durability issues start to really take hold. This is sad.
  • CoastieLenn No idea why, but nothing about a 4Runner excites me post-2004. To me, they're peak "try-hard", even above the Wrangler and Gladiator.
  • AZFelix A well earned anniversary.Can they also attend to the Mach-E?
  • Jalop1991 The intermediate shaft and right front driveshaft may not be fully engaged due to suspected improper assembly by the supplier. Over time, partial engagement can cause damage to the intermediate shaft splines. Damaged shaft splines may result in unintended vehicle movement while in Park if the parking brake is not engagedGee, my Chrysler van automatically engages the parking brake when we put it in Park. Do you mean to tell me that the idjits at Kia, and the idjit buyers, couldn't figure out wanting this in THEIR MOST EXPENSIVE VEHICLE????
  • Dukeisduke I've been waiting to see if they were going to do something special for the 60th Anniversary. I was four years old when the Mustang was introduced. I can remember that one of our neighbors bought a '65 coupe (they were all titled as '65 models, even the '64-1/2 cars), and it's the first one I can remember seeing. In the '90s I knew an older gentleman that owned a '64-1/2 model coupe with the 260 V8.
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