A week ago, we predicted that „Toyota will start the year with guns blazing and the lines rolling.” Toyota agrees, and delivers the numbers to back-up the claim. According to data released today, Toyota and Lexus alone intends to grow global production in the coming year by 24 percent to 8.65 million units. This number does not include Daihatsu and Hino. This is an ambitious plan, slightly exceeding the peak level of 2007.
Toyota/Lexus Projections 2012 (Ex Daihatsu, Hino)
Licking its wounds from an unprecedented series of catastrophes, that would have spelled certain death for less resilient companies, TMC (all brands) will end the year with production down 7 percent to 7.9 million units, internal forecasts say.
TMC Sales And Production 2011 (All brands and divisions)
Originally, the big climb out of the rubble caused by the March 11 tsunami had been planned for the last quarter of 2011. Toyota wanted to hit the ground running as the year changes. The Thai flood poured water over that plan.
With 7.9 million made in 2011, Toyota will certainly land on place three of the worldwide ranking, behind Volkswagen, which TTAC estimates at 8.2 million, and with GM solidly in the number one position with production above 9 million.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, or a sale of Opel, GM should be more than capable to defend the #1 spot in 2012. The race for the #2 slot will be interesting. Volkswagen should end the year 2011 at around 8.2 million units. If Wolfsburg maintains its breakneck growth rate in 2012, production could be lifted above 9 million, giving GM cause to check the mirror. Where it will see Toyota and Volkswagen in a neck-on-neck race.
If we assume that Daihatsu and Hino will have the same growth as Toyota in 2012, the total would be 9.8 million units. That of course could be a bit optimistic. But even assuming flat Daihatsu and Hino production in 2012, the grand total would be 9.6 million. In 2013, TMC plans for 8.98 million Toyota and Lexus cars produced globally. With Daihatsu and Hino added in, the company could pierce the 10 million mark by then.
It all depends on how well Toyota executes its plans.
Asked how Toyota wants to execute that daring plan, Toyota spokesman Dion Corbett says:
“In the peak year 2007, only 34 percent of our sales were in emerging markets. We are expecting a lot of growth there. Within the next years, we see ourselves shifting towards a 50:50 distribution between emerging and established markets. We are not planning on less sales in established markets, but definitely on a lot more sales in emerging markets.”
Readers of Matt Gasnier’s Bestselling Cars Aroud The Globe series know that Toyotas are regularly listed in the Top 10 of countries all around the world.