#newcars

Like yesterday’s Compact chart, today’s look at the midsized (D) segment shows either profound changes afoot or a lingering tsunami hangover, depending on how you look at it. Accord, Prius and Camry were the biggest year-over-year losers last month, although the Malibu also lost a small amount of volume as well. Nissan, which has clearly weathered the tsunami aftermath better than its competition, took advantage and added to the Altima’s volume. But once again, the changes look less profound when you look at YTD numbers, with Camry remaining on top by a healthy margin, Altima and Fusion close behind, and Honda falling just out of the top three. Meanwhile Chrysler’s midsizers just barely beat the Prius… in combined volume. Yikes! [NB: Optima’s July 2010 volume (which is invisible in the codger-friendly chart above) was 1,857]

Chevy’s Cruze dominated the compact segment last month, racking up a 7k unit advantage over its next-closest rival, the Corolla. Corolla and Civic were the two biggest losers year-over-year, as tsunami related supply issues hold them back. Civic even dropped to sixth in its class, while Jetta (which could almost be classified as midsized) and Elantra snuck past it and towards the falling Corolla. Mazda3 beat Sentra, which in turn beat the Forte… so all in all, a strange month for a class that seemed to be lacking a real leader in the early months of this year. But if you look at the YTD numbers in the second chart (see gallery below, sadly not in “old codger-friendly” format), you’ll find that the Corolla is hanging onto first (for the moment), Civic is about 6k units behind the second-place Cruze and Elantra in fourth place. So there’s some familiarity left in the class that was once ruled by the Corolla and Civic… but don’t expect it to last too much longer, unless a lot of people are simply waiting for their Japanese brands to get restocked. In any case, the competition has never been more fierce.

Over the weekend Bertel reported on some depressing economic news, noting

Suddenly, automakers aren’t so sure anymore about all that pent-up demand that will bring back U.S. car sales back to their old glory… The big recovery has been postponed for a year or more.

But how much pent-up demand is there, really? According to Edmunds’ analysis of 12 Factors To Watch In The Industry’s Second Half, only about half of the sales lost between 2008 and 2010 were not lost forever to used cars, the inability to get credit and the “new austerity.” As a result, they calculate about 4.3m units of demand is “pent up.” But there’s a question of how accurate that estimate is, and beyond that there’s another question: what happens once the pent-up demand has been blown through?

While I was celebrating my independence from TTAC on a camping road trip through the wilds of Eastern Oregon this weekend, it seems that quite a little debate was stirred up by Bertel’s publication of the top 10 best-selling American-market cars in June. In hopes that more information will lead to a stronger debate, I’m dedicating a good chunk of my Independence Day to an overview of the American car market in the first half of this year, starting with this chart of the top 25 Year-To-Date performers. I’ve omitted year-ago numbers in the interests of chart cleanliness, but a snapshot of last Summer’s sales studs can be found here. The contrasts are… well, I’ll let you fill in that blank. With the exception of incentive and fleet sales mitigation, the numbers speak for themselves…

2011 started promisingly enough, with sales soaring above a 13m unit SAAR for the first four months of the year. Halfway through the year, however, what looked like a solid recovery is proving to be less than entirely reliable, as SAAR looks to drop below 12m units for the second month in a row. While the macroeconomists fight over whether this mid-year stumble is a sign of fundamental weakness or minor hiccup in a strong market “backstopped” by a seemingly endless “pent up demand,” it’s time for us to look at the sales numbers from each firm. Check back regularly as we update our developing table of sales, and be sure to watch for more mid-year sales analysis as we get a handle on who is best positioned to take advantage of the market, whether 2011 proves to be an up, down, or sideways year.

One of the greatest things about the internet is its ability to disseminate information that levels the playing field in relationships that have long been defined by asymmetrical information. Our buddies at TrueCar are tackling one such informational imbalance by posting its dealer holdback calculation for every brand on sale in the US. They note

Dealer Invoice is generally the amount the dealer pays the manufacturer for the vehicle. Because Dealer Holdback is paid to the dealer after the vehicle is sold, it represents an additional profit center for the dealers that is not immediately available to consumers. This is one reason why some dealers are able to sell some vehicles below Invoice and still make a profit.

The more you know!

OK boys and girls, we’re working on our last month of the first half of 2011… and it’s time for a gut-check. Here are the studs of the light-duty vehicle sales world, the top 25 total volume sellers in the US through May. But remember, we have no fleet sales breakouts by model (data donations accepted at our contact form)… so this isn’t necessarily a measure of the cars that are selling best with private consumers. Still, it’s an interesting list of cars, with a surprise for everyone (RAV4 barely beating Prius, for starters). We hope you enjoy it.

Analyst forecasts for May were perhaps a little bearish on Ford and a little too bullish on GM, as the two remaining American automakers saw their volumes drop by 3% and 1% respectively (year-over-year) last month. Pickups seem to have been the highest hurt by high gas prices, as GM’s full-sizers dropped 14%, while Ford’s F-Series dropped 15% despite a 55% mix of Ecoboost V6-powered F-150s. But the real losers in May’s downturn were probably the Japanese automakers, whose numbers are just starting to come in, while the biggest winners appear to be the luxury brands, with Porsche up 50% and Maserati up 36%. Check back often as we update our developing table of US auto sales in May.

Who’s the most efficient automaker of them all? According to TrueCar’s projections for May, Smart, MINI, Hyundai, VW and Scion top the list for sales-weighted fleet fuel economy. Meanwhile, the industry average of 22.4 MPG might not sound like much, but when you convert it to the “unadjusted” numbers used for CAFE, that 22 MP turns into about 28 MPG. Considering the 2015 CAFE standard is 35.5 MPG between cars and trucks, that average shows the industry to be fairly well on-track to comply with the initial CAFE ramp-up. In fact, since 35.5. MPG CAFE equals about 27 MPG EPA, it seems that the top three brands on this list (Smart, MINI, Hyundai) can pretty much twiddle their thumbs between now and 2015, as they’re practically in compliance with the 35.5 MPG standard already.

So, sales are up… but what are the automakers spending in order to get those sales? And what are they getting for their cars? Step inside our incentives and transaction price tracking center for a look at the factors that play affect how sales turn into profits (or don’t). But first, take a look at the graph above showing US-market incentive spending broken out by the regions where automakers are based. As usual, the US-based OEMs put more cash on the hood than their competitors, but more importantly notice how much money is spent on sales each month: nearly $2.5b was spent last month. And despite being a serious chunk of change, Edmunds AutoObserver says that’s the lowest overall level of incentive spending since 2005. So if you’re inclined to ignore incentives when it comes to your monthly sales education, you might want to start paying some attention…

Surveys of auto executives and analysts by Bloomberg and Reuters show that the US Seasonally Adjusted Annual Selling Rate (SAAR) hit 13m units last month, a 16 percent increase compared to April 2010. And though the market is up significantly from last year, it’s looking like April’s sales will be basically flat from last month. But the effects of the Japanese quake and tsunami are only just beginning to be felt in the US market…

You can just about kiss those worries about a US price war goodbye, as GM has become the third major automaker to raise its US market MSRPs in April alone. Like Toyota and Ford before it, GM is raising its prices by about $100 per vehicle ($123 on average) in response not to Japanese parts shortages, but steadily increasing raw material costs. According to the WSJ, the price increase takes effect starting on May 2. And, TrueCar’s Jesse Toprak tells Fox,

The advice would be, based on what we see today, we don’t see any kind of ease in price anytime soon. The prices of everything will go up, moving forward.

Now all GM needs to do is start easing off its incentives so that those MSRPs actually mean something.

Like much of the automotive media, we were under the impression that Nissan was replacing its Versa/Tiida with the new Nissan Sunny model that recently debuted in China. The first cracks in that theory started to appear when we saw an updated Versa with a 1.6 DIG Turbo badge on its intact rear hatch. Now, thanks to Burlappcars.com, we have our first look at the rest of the new Versa. The new model keeps the Versa’s big-box appeal, while updating the look for a more sleek, modern aesthetic. It’s a restrained, conservative look, but then the current Versa dominates its segment despite its downright dowdy styling. As long as this new model keeps the Versa’s giant interior space (it’s a B-Segment car with EPA midsize-rated interior volume), its updated styling (and the option of the Juke’s delightful little direct-injected turbo engine) should keep the Versa at the top of its segment.

There’s an interesting (if troubling) perception out there that there is no longer such thing as “bad cars.” Certainly compared to what was available just ten years ago, the market has improved its offerings, making most new cars consistently better than the vehicles they replaced. But the corollary to this rule, that each new car is always better than the one that it replaced, does not actually hold up to scrutiny, at least according to Consumer Reports.

In fact, in its most recent auto issue, CR gave a number of vehicles worse scores than their predecessors earned, indicating that progress is not a given in the world of cars. And no wonder: automakers aren’t simply trying to wow consumers, but must constantly balance increased performance, content and features with lower costs. The VW Jetta is a poster child for the kind of decontenting that we’re beginning to see creep into the market, as Volkswagen is emphasizing the Jetta’s price in its marketing materials. But are there other, less intentional examples of automotive “value inflation”? What car is/was the biggest “step down” from its predecessor?