#NewVehicleSales

Did you hear that sound? That was a sigh of relief coming from Germany. Germans are buying cars again. In November, they bought more cars than in October 2010, and even more than in November 2008. What’s more, November 2010 is only 6.2 percent below the Abwrackprämien-exaggerated November of the prior year. The usually very conservative Kraftfahrtbundesamt that released the official registration data even dares to prognosticate that “year and sales are expected to be 2.9 million cars.” Translation:

The Japanese are usually first to report last month’s sales numbers. This time: Very bad. New car sales in Japan fell 30.7 percent in November. After Japan’s generous subsidies were withdrawn, the market is down for the third straight month, and there is no end in sight.

What is the difference between the November U.S. car market and my wife? The answer is: None. Edmunds says the U.S. annual sales rate for new vehicles in November will be essentially flat from the prior month.

New car registrations in the 27 countries of the EU crashed by 16.6 percent to 1,027,036 units in October. That according to the latest statistics of the European manufacturer organization ACEA. The year looks a bit better: In the first 10 months, demand for new cars has decreased by 5.5 percent, totaling 11,279,542 new vehicles registered.

This will disappoint those who were hoping for a cooling-off of the Chinese auto market. Chinese automakers in China shipped 1.2m passenger cars to dealers in October, up 27.1 percent from a year earlier, the official China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) told Reuters today. Overall vehicle sales, which also include buses and trucks, were 1.54 million units, up 25.5 percent from a year ago.

Most of the smaller makers reported October sales yesterday as the nation went to go vote. The big ones decided to wait until today: The Detroit 3, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.

After the Abwrackprämien-high in 2009 (which saved the auto industry from damnation and got rid of a lot of old cars), and the short hangover that followed, Germany is definitely back to normal. For the second month in a row, German new car sales are at 2008 levels. According to the official data of the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt, October sales were 20 percent below October 2009, but only 0.8 percent below October 2008. The graph above tells a better story.

Numbers are not in yet, and many makers won’t report until tomorrow, but it already looks like October was the best in 14 months, if Bloomberg has it right. What’s more, buyers are willing to cough up more for 2011 model-year vehicles.

Tomorrow, you have two choices:

1.) Go vote.

2.) Watch the real time reporting of October new car sales on TTAC.

What should you do?

This was the Ooops month, previously called August. Before you get a heart attack from looking at the numbers, keep in mind that they are comparing with “Crazy August” of 2009, U.S. light vehicle sales were driven nearly up to the good old days of 2008 by Cash for Clunkers, only to drop 23 percent the next month. What we see this month is a flashback of the withdrawal effects of 2009. All of this had (hopefully) been factored-in by analysts, but the numbers are coming in worse than expected.

If you don’t want to be sidetracked by the base effect of one crazy month, look at the rightmost column for the bigger picture: Up a bit for the year, but not by a whole lot.

The following list is complete. All precincts have reported.