#NewVehicleSales

In a press conference in the late Chinese afternoon, China’s CAAM announced its official February sales numbers. The Middle Kingdom kept face and avoided a loss.

The Chinese passenger car market did something highly unusual in February: It declined. If the data of the usually not highly reliable China Passenger Car Association is to be believed, that is. They e-mailed to Automotive News [sub] that February 2011 passenger car sales were a minuscule 0.4 percent below February 2010 levels.

Germany is busy digging itself out of a – mostly mathematical – hole. According to data released by Germany’s Kraftfahrtbundesamt, registrations in February were up 15.2 percent compared to February 2010. The graph above tells a different story.

More and more journos wish China would become like America. As in America of 2008: Pop, crash, fizzle. The current meme is that the 18 plus million car sales can’t possibly go on and that the Chinese car market will ape America and will pop, crash and fizzle.

The problem is: The Chinese car market doesn’t seem to be able to read. It just doesn’t want to roll over. It had its big chance last month. China had been closed most of February in observance of the Chinese New Year. Most observers (including myself) had expected minus signs in front of the growth number for February.

First sales numbers are coming if for February, and there are good news and bad news.

“The consumer is back to the showrooms,” said Brian Johnson, an analyst with Barclays Capital to the Los Angeles Times. No kidding. The consumer is back with a vengeance. February new cars sales were up 27 percent on the year. The world’s two biggest automakers report sales increases we thought only possible in China.

It’s that time of the month again. Super-efficient Japan traditionally is first out of the gate with previous month sales numbers. Lately, there have been some who regret that efficiency. For the sixth straight month in a row, the Japanese new car market is tired, down, worn-out.

Three usually reliable research organizations agree: When automakers release February sales this coming week, they will be strong. Analysts see a sales increase of about 20 percent, and a SAAR in the 12 million territory.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers finally has returned from the Chinese New Year festivities and got around to counting the real official sales number for China in January 2011. China’s auto sales in January rose 13.81 percent to 1.894 million units. Passenger vehicles did not rise 12.6 percent to 965,238 units in January, as prematurely reported by the Associated Press. Passenger vehicle sales in China rose 16.17 percent to 1.529 million units last month.

While we were focused on the U.S. market in 2010 and were happy that it awoke from the dead and went above 10 million, the world quietly left carmageddon behind itself and set a new record: 72 million light-vehicles were sold worldwide in 2010, a number never seen before, says J.D. Power. For this year, the Westlake Village research group expects another world record. However, most of this record was not and will not be produced where most of our readership lives.

More Chinese sales numbers for January are coming in as China slowly begins to return from the Chinese New Year holidays. We are keeping a wary eye on the January numbers. They are seen as an indicator for the whole year. Most of the world’s auto industry relies on China for growth and volume. A marked slowdown could have serious consequences.

The China Passenger Car Association reports that sales of passenger cars rose 12.6 percent to 965,238 units in January, says the Associated Press. However, as explained in my small lecture on the use and abuse of auto industry statistics, this is not the number we are waiting for. We are waiting for the sales of all motorvehicles in China with 4 wheels and over, also known as “automobile sales.”

China’s prognosticated car bubble does not appear to experience its prognosticated burst. One by one, Chinese sales numbers for January are coming in, and none of them are bad.

Less than two weeks ago, GM China hinted that their sales may have risen more than 20 percent in January. This was seen as a good omen, because most pundits (except this one) had predicted a miserable January for China. GM China released its numbers today, and they over delivered. GM China reports a record month in January.

The oft predicted collapse of the Chinese market does not seem to happen. GM is the canary in the Chinese coalmine, and January, the month before the Lunar New Year festivities, is a key selling month. So goes GM, so goes China, so goes January, so goes the year. This time, January was especially critical: Many had predicted that the cancellation of tax incentives for sub 1.6 liter cars, that went in effect on January 1, would have serious pull-forward repercussions. Not as far as GM is concerned.

According to data published today by Ford, the company sold 5,313,000 units worldwide “to wholesale” (i.e. out of the door.), up 447,000 units or 9.19 percent. With Volvo eliminated, the growth was 771,000 units. Record sales in the U.S.A. and Asia were partially offset by lower sales in Europe. Ford is not strong enough in China to profit like its competitors that are strong in China. One of these competitors is Hyundai.