Top 3 Automakers 2011: Bloomberg, Please Report To Remedial Math Class

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt
top 3 automakers 2011 bloomberg please report to remedial math class

There are days when I wish industry analysts and auto industry journalists should be required to carry maltreatment insurance. This is one of those days. Bloomberg reports that “Volkswagen AG will probably become the world’s biggest carmaker this year, vaulting past Toyota Motor and General Motors on gains in emerging markets.” Pure and unadulterated nonsense.

Bloomberg bases this daring prediction “on the average of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.” The analysts and their detailed predictions remain unmentioned – which is probably better that way. The analysts see Volkswagen’s sales “rise 13 percent to 8.1 million vehicles this year. GM sales will gain about 8 percent to 7.55 million, while Toyota will drop 9 percent to 7.27 million.”

Excuse me? The totals are waaaaaaaay off.

The percentages jibe halfways. We predicted similar ones last August. Let’s assume, they are right. It doesn’t take a genius to get them straight. Volkswagen just reported 13.9 percent plus for the first 9 months. GM will announce its quarterly results in November, but 8 percent sound about right. Toyota had budgeted a shortfall of 6 percent for 2011, but just for the sake of argument, let’s assume the analysts are right with 9 percent less. Now for the hard part: Let’s do the math.

I don’t know what kind of a spreadsheet Bloomberg is using, but if you apply the predicted percentages to last year’s official numbers ( as supplied by OICA), then GM can hardly gain 8 percent and end up at 7.55 million if they sold 8.48 million last year.

A rise of 13 percent won’t bring Volkswagen to 8.1 million, but to 8.29 million, a little bit less than a million behind the world’s largest carmaker, GM.

And just for the record, 9 percent down from 8.56 million won’t land Toyota at 7.27 million, but at 7.79 million. Not that it matters ranking-wise.

20102011GrowthRankGM8.489.168%1VW7.348.2913%2Toyota8.567.79-9%3

Unless the sky falls (and it would have to fall quickly), the year will end as we predicted it back in June: GM Volkswagen Toyota #3. It also should end with Bloomberg in remedial math class.

The numerical nonsense has already been picked-up widely by likewise mathematically challenged news outlets. One of them is – to our great disappointment – the Financial Times, which usually has its act together.

Instead of rectifying the story, the FT added to the confusion by predicting combined Renault and Nissan sales numbers of 6.8 million. Wrong. Renault and Nissan never consolidated numbers in the past, and probably won’t consolidate in the future either. A usually well informed source told us that the consolidated number would be 8.15 million – if the Alliance would consolidate. This includes results from the joint venture with AutoVAZ, which must be taken in consideration when joint venture results of GM, Volkswagen, and Toyota are counted. This would put the Nissan/Renault Alliance in the #3 slot, but again, it won’t, because they don’t want to be counted as one.

Comments
Join the conversation
2 of 30 comments
  • Secret Hi5 Cream of mushroom interior looks good. Impractical for families and denim jeans wearers.
  • Matt Posky Hot.
  • Lou_BC Murilee is basically correct on the trim levels. People tend to refer to Ford's full-sized cars as "Galaxie 500" or "Galaxie's" even though that's just the mid level trim. I was never a fan of the '69 snout or any of the subsequent models. The vacuum controlled headlight covers typically failed. It was a heavy clunky system also found on the Mercury's like the Cougar. The XL's and LTD's could be purchased with factory bucket seats and a center console with a large shifter, similar to the type of throttle on an airplane. The late 60's era Ford cars had coil springs in the rear which rode nice. The shape of the fender wells did not lend themselves to fitting larger tires. The frame layout carried on to become the underpinnings of the Panther platform. I noticed that this car came with disc brakes in the front. There was a time when disc's were an upgrade option from drum brakes. Ford's engines of similar displacement are often assumed as being from the same engine families. In '69 the 429 was the biggest engine which was in the same family as the 460 (385 series). It was a true big block. In 1968 and earlier, the 428, 427, 390's typically found in these cars were FE block engines. The 427 side oiler has always been the most desired option.
  • Drew8MR Minivans are expensive new if you are just buying them for utility. Used minivans are often superfund sites in back compared to the typical barely used backseats in a lot of other vehicles and you aren't going to get a deal just because everything is filthy, broken and covered in spilled food and drink.
  • Arthur Dailey This is still the only 'car' show that our entire family enjoys. This is not Willie Mays with the Mets style of decline. More like Gretzky with the Blues. It may not be their 'best' work but when it works the magic is still there.
Next