GM Can Dethrone Toyota
It’s mid year and time to compare sizes. Who has the biggest (production) of them all? Last year came and went with no changes on the top of the list of the world’s biggest automakers. Same procedure as the year before: Toyota GM Volkswagen #3.
Where are we now, halfway through the race? Watch out, Toyota! Objects in your mirror are closer than they appear! That’s big bad GM riding on your … bumper.
In the first six months, Toyota’s worldwide sales jumped 16.9 percent on the year to 4.16 million units. Different picture in North America: Here, Toyota grew only 9.9 percent while GM and Ford surged ahead by 14.3 percent and 28.2 percent.
The war for world dominance is being fought in the world’s biggest and still expanding auto market, China. China is Toyota’s Achilles heel. They lost market share in the first half, while Shanghai General Motors exceeded the market, hiking sales by 66 percent. According to The Nikkei, “this helped GM close the gap with Toyota on a global basis to 14,000 units.”
If it would just be for China, Volkswagen would already be number one. They sold some 950,000 units in China in the first half, up 45 percent. Did we mention that Volkswagen’s home market is a train wreck, and Europe is a basket case? That dragged them down. Global sales grew 15.8 percent to 3.61m units. Solidly in #3 they stay.
Amongst the also-rans, Nissan and Renault would be fourth with 3.35 million units – if they would be counted together. For some reason, they aren’t. Nissan is lucky in China (up 57 percent to 457,000 units), where Renault is a nobody.
The biggest gainer in the top 10? Of course Hyundai. Counted together with Kia, they are up 29.4 percent to 2.76m units. If the race would be decided now, Ford would have dropped into the #5 spot, with Hyundai taking #4. Hyundai bigger than Ford? Who would have thunk that?
The rest of the year will be highly interesting. With only 14,000 units behind Toyota, GM could easily put ToMoCo in second place once the year is over. The place to watch is China, where Toyota struggles and where GM is strong. This is also the place where GM has the most opportunity to cook the books. One word: “Wuling.” Toyota doesn’t have a maker of millions of cheap Chinese delivery vans, where they only hold a 38 percent share. Who said the world is fair?
Should the palace revolution succeed, national pride will need to be reconciled with the fact that that war was won by the Chinese. That will be left as an exercise for the student.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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How predictable: everyone roots for the underdog (even when it's GM, heaven forbid!). Toyota did run into some hassles with the recalls, but I wouldn't yet write an obituary. The Japanese are a disciplined and determined sort, and when they catch their breath again, GM will have its collective doors blown off. Having owned Honda's, Toyota's and a BMW, along with observing my father's issues with his new Buick LaCrosse, there isn't much for Toyota to worry about. Too many good brands to choose from, market domination by an American (whatever that means anymore) producer is of a bygone era. However, if nationalism gets a hold of me, I would easily buy a Ford.
Honestly worldwide sales is a nice stat, but not very useful. It can generate high cash reserves if done right and a big fall if done wrong. GM is only catching up really only shows how big China is and is going to be in the future for all auto makers.