According to a Reuters poll of 30 economists, data to be released next week will show that the recession in Europe has ended, but that the euro zone will not start growing significantly until 2015. The consensus prediction for the second quarter of 2013 was 0.2% growth.
That prediction was supported by industrial production figures released earlier this week showing a 0.7% increase in June. Most of the economists expect a very slow recovery, echoing what auto executives like Sergio Marchionne have been saying for a while. GDP for the euro zone won’t surpass 0.4% in any quarter until 2015, according to their predictions. Inflation is expected to stay at or below 2%, allowing the European Central Bank to keep its lending rates at record lows for the next two years. When asked about potential risks to the recovery, those economists who answered the question referenced political instability. Southern European countries have had some political turmoil recently and German federal elections are being held next month.