Three days ago, I showed you how to become a clairvoyant without even trying, or just by reading TTAC. If you followed my simple method of predicting the Chinese market in January and February, you could now collect on your first bet. GM, our patent-pending sales oracle for the Chinese market reports humongous sales, and an “all-time record month in China.” Is that the big turn-around?
Forgetting to say what the nice man from Toyota had told Reuters, namely that January numbers are complete off-kilter due to the Chinese New Year, GM celebrates a new record. After Toyota had announced a 23.5 percent January gain in China, only months after one did risk life and car when caught with a Japanese car on China’s streets, GM announced a 26 percent increase for January.
This was doubly easy. First, because of the CNY-effect, explained on Saturday. And second, because January 2011 (again, Chinese New Year at work) was so bad that GM had to employ is best spinmeisters to hide it. Compared with that month, all car sales news coming from China will be glorious, trust me. Just like February will be awful, trust me.
|GM China January 2013|
|Black: GM data. Blue: Calculated from historical GM data|
Despite generous help from the Chinese calendar, not everything is rosy. Cadillac sales are half of what they were in that horrible January 2012, a fact that GM tries to conceal. For each brand GM gives us a positive percentage number down to one decimal. For Cadillac, we are told: ”Cadillac luxury vehicle sales in China totaled 1,570 units in January.” There is no comparison. Someone who has been covering GM for a while knows: No percentage given, that means it’s a disaster. It is, Cadillac sales in China are down 47.4 percent.
Unimaginable what the GM press release will look like when the numbers for a (percentage-wise) truly horrible February will be announced next month. I recommend extending the Chinese New Year vacation.