Countering talk of an impending end to the new car party, augurs predict that July will be seasonally hot. TrueCar says that this July could be the best since the heydays of 2007. TrueCar, which bases its projections on real time transactions from its associated dealers, thinks that July sales could reach 1.17 million, up 10.6 percent from July 2011. Edmunds also sees 1.17 million new cars in its crystal ball. Kelley Blue Book basically agrees with 1.16 million on its tip sheet.
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TrueCar thinks the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) will be around 14.1 million new car sales, up from 12.2 million in July 2011. That’s the good news.
The bad news are that retail sales are expected to be up an anemic 3 percent only. Most of the growth is expected in Fleet sales which are thought to account for 21 percent of total industry sales in July 2012.
More not quite good news could be in stock for Ford and GM. The big July bonanza will pass them by, TrueCar expects. Says Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com.:
“The Japanese Big 3, as well as Chrysler, will all be posting double-digit gains while Ford and GM will essentially be flat. One look at the Toyota and Honda sales today will make you think as if nothing ever happened last year.”
Edmunds even has slight decreases in the boxes of Ford and GM. But then, fleet sales could change that.