World's Largest Automaker 2012: Toyota Leads After 5 Laps

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

If the year would have ended on May 31st, Toyota would be the world’s largest automaker by a wide margin, followed by GM, and a distant third, Volkswagen. The year is not over until it’s over, but 5 months are a good indicator for the rest of the year. Let’s have a look.

5M ’125M ’11YoYProj ’12Toyota4,359,6162,694,81761.8%10,463,000GM *4,040,0003,878,0004.2%9,696,000Volkswagen3,650,0003,370,0008.3%8,760,000* projection based on Q1 data, no 5 month data available

Based on hard production data delivered by Toyota and Volkswagen, and an educated guess for GM, Toyota can end the year with more than 10 million units produced, followed by GM with 9.7 million and Volkswagen with 8.8 million units. We are forced to guess GM’s performance. Other than its peers that deliver global data on a monthly basis, GM only delivers global data in its quarterly report. We will have to wait until August to receive better data. However, our very simplistic straight-line model tests out quite well against known 5 month data of GM, as supplied for NA, China, and Europe. We count all divisions and subsidiaries, Toyota includes Daihatsu and Hino, just like GM includes Wuling, and like Volkswagen includes every last Lamborghini

The fact that Toyota’s internal (and usually very conservative) plan calls for 9.7 million units for the current fiscal gives further credence to this projection.

Toyota clearly has shaken off the demons of witch hunt, earthquake and Thai floods. Toyota is still accelerating where others lose steam. 5 months into the year, GM barely grew in the U.S. It is up 11 percent in China, it is down 11 percent in Europe. Volkswagen finds itself dragging an increasingly heavy boulder called Europe. Like its Asian peers, Toyota does not have much market share in Europe, and where you don’t have much, you don’t have much to lose. GM’s exposure to Europe is halfway between Toyota and VW. Volkswagen is betting its reputation and the career of countless managers on becoming the top car company by 2018. Currently, they are going backwards.

GM’s propaganda operatives find themselves in a tricky position: GM’s only chance to win the 2012 race lies in a rebound of the Chinese market, where GM outperforms. This rebound would refute the ideology of China being on its last gasp, just about to keel over. Choose your poison.

Usual note: The numbers used are production data, not sales data. Not because we cherry-picked the better set. Production data are used for the ranking of World’s Largest Automaker by OICA, the umbrella organization of global auto manufacturer associations, and if you want to replicate that ranking, usage of the correct data is advised.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Challenger2012 Challenger2012 on Jun 28, 2012

    dejal1 You are right. Number 1 when it comes to money in the bank matters most.

  • Bd2 Bd2 on Jun 28, 2012

    Toyota is "still accelerating" b/c it has recovered from the effects of the tsunami and has launched a no. of new generations of models (Camry, GS, etc.) and have a few more slated like the RAV-4. GM has yet to launch the non-e-assist version of the new Malibu, and has sales of the XTS, ATS and new Impala on tap, among others. Also, Toyota has upped its fleet sales % while GM has cut back, so in proper context, it's not as bad as it seens for GM (tho, I don't expect GM to give Toyota more of a race for the sales crown until 2013).

    • 84Cressida 84Cressida on Jun 28, 2012

      Get real. GM sells far more to fleet than Toyota does, and Toyota's fleet numbers are grossly inflated due to still being on the hook for contracts that were to be done before the tsunami hit and they are now filling back orders and will be down to less than 10% fleet by later this year. And GM just launched the Sonic, Cruze Eco, Verano, and Malibu Eco, so Toyota isn't seeing gains just because they have new models and GM is selling old ones.

  • AZFelix Hilux technical, preferably with a swivel mount.
  • ToolGuy This is the kind of thing you get when you give people faster internet.
  • ToolGuy North America is already the greatest country on the planet, and I have learned to be careful about what I wish for in terms of making changes. I mean, if Greenland wants to buy JDM vehicles, isn't that for the Danes to decide?
  • ToolGuy Once again my home did not catch on fire and my fire extinguisher(s) stayed in the closet, unused. I guess I threw my money away on fire extinguishers.(And by fire extinguishers I mean nuclear missiles.)
  • Carson D The UAW has succeeded in organizing a US VW plant before. There's a reason they don't teach history in the schools any longer. People wouldn't make the same mistakes.
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