June Forecasts Not Hot
After sifting through the returns from their dealers that supply real time transactional data , Edmunds now projects a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 11.9 million vehicles, for June, just a smidgen higher than May’s 11.8 million. Edmunds sees 1,093,000 new cars change hands, which would be 11.2 percent more than June 2010. A week ago, Edmunds was still hoping for a 12.3 million SAAR, “if the month ends strong.” Looks like it is not ending as strong as hoped.
TrueCar sticks with a forecast of 12.17 million SAAR for June. “Uncertainty in the economy as well as high gas prices and shortages in small car inventory contributed to the limited gains in sales in June. ” said Jesse Toprak of TrueCar.com. Should his 12.17 million prediction not be dead on, Toprak does not expect sales to go below 11.9 million SAAR level. “
Price increases and inventory shortages “have made it more likely for consumers to delay their new car purchases through the early part of the summer,” said Edmunds.com Chief Economist Lacey Plache. “But as prices and inventory return closer to normal levels by September, many of those lost sales can be made up by the end of this year when consumers return to the market.” This could be the chance for the Japanese to recover lost ground.
June Market Share Predictions
TruecarEdmundsJun ’11ChangeJun ’11ChangeJun ’10Chrysler11.1%1.7%10.7%1.3%9.4%Ford17.6%-0.3%17.9%0.0%17.9%GM19.9%0.1%20.9%1.1%19.8%Honda8.2%-2.6%8.1%-2.7%10.8%Hyundai/Kia10.7%2.2%10.2%1.7%8.5%Nissan7.2%0.6%7.4%0.8%6.6%Toyota11.3%-3.0%11.0%-3.3%14.3%As you can see from this table, Toyota and Honda are still reeling from the tsunami-induced effects, while Nissan already has recovered. Who is really picking up sales is Hyundai/Kia.
Edmunds is projecting a 10.2 percent market share for Hyundai and Kia in June, which would be their highest combined market share in history. TrueCar even gives the Koreans 10.7 percent. What does not seem to happen is the wholesale desertion from Japanese to American ranks. Oddly enough, Chrysler picks up the most share, while Ford and GM are generally missing their chance to exploit the logistical weakness of the competition.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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I'm ready to buy an F-150 Lariat with an EcoBoost V6 but I'm waiting. The deals are gonna get better.
Ah, yes, the magical consumers, just waiting on the sidelines with pent up demand. We've been hearing about those troublesome consumers waiting to buy houses, always ready to pounce 4-6 months after I make my prediction. Must be the same ones always in predictions with pockets full of cash just waiting to jump into the stock market 4-6 months out. Whenever we really really want people to buy things, and we can't quantify how it can possibly happen, it's very very hard to face up to tough reality. There's no one waiting there. And the ones that are there either can't afford it or can't qualify for more debt.