By The Numbers: No Valentines This February

Frank Williams
by Frank Williams

In February, lovers old and new turn their attention to matters of the heart. No 'bout a doubt it: automakers weren't feeling the love. Overall U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 6.3 percent in February and 5.3 percent for the year. With precious few exceptions, sales were down across the board. And this time, the usually impervious foreign nameplates and transplants felt the pain along with their Detroit counterparts (although not quite as badly). Let's take a closer look at the love's labor lost.

Pickup Trucks

As you'd expect, as gas topped $3 a gallon, pickup truck sales tanked. Chevy's Silverado plummeted 24.9 percent compared to last February, down 17.4 percent year-to-date. Ford's F-Series didn't suffer quite as badly, losing just 4.9 percent from last February and 6.5 percent on the year. The Dodge Ram finished the month 20.9 percent below February ‘07, dropping 19.7 percent for the year so far. Toyota's Tundra showed a 48.9 percent gain on last February. The Texas-built pickup gained 65.6 percent on the year. However, ToMoCo was introducing the new model this time last year; sales were low for the first few months.

Passenger Cars

Chevrolet must still be having production problems with their "everyone wants one" Malibu. The new 'Bu only managed to increase sales 6.5 percent over the old model's February sales (a good January pushed sales up 29.1 percent year to date). Ford's Fusion recovered from a slow start in January, finishing February 12.1 percent higher than last year, with year-to-date sales up 1.2 percent. Chrysler's 300 continues its nosedive, down 11.6 percent in February and 10.8 percent for the year. The Toyota Camry was one of the few cars showing sales growth. The perennial sales champ finished the month up 8.6 percent, 4.6 percent ahead of last year. The newly-renlarged Honda Accord isn't doing so well. Sales are down nine percent for the month and eight percent for the year.

Truck-Based SUVs

Truck-based SUVs… ouch. The Chevy Tahoe continues selling at sub-2007 levels, dropping 26.4 percent in February and 20.4 percent year-to-date. Sales of FoMoCo's Explorer showed roughly the same performance, declining 27.1 percent from the month last year and 23.7 percent so far this year. The Dodge Boys might want to put a bullet in the Durango's head before it embarrasses them any more; model sales sank by 39.5 percent for the month and 35.8 percent drop for the year. The recently reviewed Toyota Sequoia sales increased 13.2 percent for February and 14.3 percent for the year. But like the Tundra, the numbers compare the new model to the old– and sales volumes are so low that we're only talking about a difference of 300 trucks in February.

CUVs

Although overall crossover sales were down from January, GMC's Acadia was still up 38.5 percent for the month and 122.1 percent for the year. The Edge was Ford's bright spot, racking up a 45.9 percent increase over last February and increasing sales for the year by 66.1 percent. The restyled Toyota Highlander jumped 12.2 percent for the month and 16 percent for the year. The old-style Honda Pilot did even better, growing 24.3 percent compared to last February and 7.7 percent compared to last year.

Prius

Even though gas prices went up in February, Prius sales went down 10.9 percent. They're still up 8.5 percent overall above last year so far, but sales were so robust in the first half of 2007 they may continue at sub-'07 levels for the next few months. At least until gas starts climbing to the $4/gallon mark.

Total Sales

GM's turnaround must have turned around. After blowing their horn over a black January, GM turned in a Valentine-red February. They were down 12.9 percent from February of last year. So far this year, the General's down six percent from last year. Ford didn't do quite as badly, turning in a 6.7 percent drop for the month and a 5.5 percent decrease for the year . Chrysler performed about as expected sliding 14 percent in February and 13.1 percent year to date. Even normally bullet-proof Toyota suffered in February, down 2.8 percent for the month, trailing last year by 2.4 percent. Thanks to CR-V and Civic sales, Honda managed to show growth in February, up 4.9 percent in 2008. HoMoCo finished 1.5 percent ahead year to date.

The Future

Even as new versions of the F-Series and Ram warm up in the bullpen, it doesn't look like anything will pull the truck market out of its tailspin. The CUV market will continue to grow, as Honda brings on its new Pilot and Chevy steals market share from the other Lambdas with the Traverse. In the passenger car market, attention's shifting to small cars– where Ford and Chrysler are woefully lacking and GM offers the the Korean Aveo. Add in GM's and Chrysler's supplier problems and Ford's financial difficulties and the future looks pretty bleak they're pulling the shades. Can any of them tame the shrew haunting the U.S. new car market? Watch this space.

Frank Williams
Frank Williams

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  • Jthorner Jthorner on Mar 13, 2008

    "The newly-renlarged Honda Accord isn't doing so well. Sales are down nine percent for the month and eight percent for the year." Yep, Honda blew it. The new Accord has worse fuel efficiency than the old one. The prior Accord is a very comfortable car for four full sized adults to travel in, making it bigger was dumb, and the new styling is just weird. Honda fell into the Super Size Me trap which has engulfed so much of the auto industry. That and the competition for Accord is improving. Camry, Altima, Fusion, Malibu and Aura are all worthwhile competitors now. As far as trucks, we are on trend for trucks to return to the 20-25% of the US light vehicle market they held for over 50 years. The marketing driven craze for big SUVs and pickup trucks has run it's course just like every fad does. As fuel prices keep climbing the sales of those big dogs is going to fall even more. In fact, sales of trucks could end up under the long term average for quite some time as the used vehicle market is flooded with trade-ins of lightly used trucks. Farmers and contractors rejoice. Now, where is the modern equivalent of a 1972 Toyota Hilux? You know, a rugged little truck you can buy for the price of a stripped Corolla, take care of work with and get 30 mpg doing it with the 4 cylinder engine and 5 speed manual transmission?

  • EJ_San_Fran EJ_San_Fran on Mar 13, 2008

    GM clearly has a big problem: the honeymoon with the GMT-900 platform is over. There is no other big profit maker for them. Toyota also has a big problem: importing 1M vehicles is no longer fun with a crashing dollar. They need to raise prices on imported small vehicles and should probably start manufacturing the Prius in the US.

  • W Conrad I'm not afraid of them, but they aren't needed for everyone or everywhere. Long haul and highway driving sure, but in the city, nope.
  • Jalop1991 In a manner similar to PHEV being the correct answer, I declare RPVs to be the correct answer here.We're doing it with certain aircraft; why not with cars on the ground, using hardware and tools like Telsa's "FSD" or GM's "SuperCruise" as the base?Take the local Uber driver out of the car, and put him in a professional centralized environment from where he drives me around. The system and the individual car can have awareness as well as gates, but he's responsible for the driving.Put the tech into my car, and let me buy it as needed. I need someone else to drive me home; hit the button and voila, I've hired a driver for the moment. I don't want to drive 11 hours to my vacation spot; hire the remote pilot for that. When I get there, I have my car and he's still at his normal location, piloting cars for other people.The system would allow for driver rest period, like what's required for truckers, so I might end up with multiple people driving me to the coast. I don't care. And they don't have to be physically with me, therefore they can be way cheaper.Charge taxi-type per-mile rates. For long drives, offer per-trip rates. Offer subscriptions, including miles/hours. Whatever.(And for grins, dress the remote pilots all as Johnnie.)Start this out with big rigs. Take the trucker away from the long haul driving, and let him be there for emergencies and the short haul parts of the trip.And in a manner similar to PHEVs being discredited, I fully expect to be razzed for this brilliant idea (not unlike how Alan Kay wasn't recognized until many many years later for his Dynabook vision).
  • B-BodyBuick84 Not afraid of AV's as I highly doubt they will ever be %100 viable for our roads. Stop-and-go downtown city or rush hour highway traffic? I can see that, but otherwise there's simply too many variables. Bad weather conditions, faded road lines or markings, reflective surfaces with glare, etc. There's also the issue of cultural norms. About a decade ago there was actually an online test called 'The Morality Machine' one could do online where you were in control of an AV and choose what action to take when a crash was inevitable. I think something like 2.5 million people across the world participated? For example, do you hit and most likely kill the elderly couple strolling across the crosswalk or crash the vehicle into a cement barrier and almost certainly cause the death of the vehicle occupants? What if it's a parent and child? In N. America 98% of people choose to hit the elderly couple and save themselves while in Asia, the exact opposite happened where 98% choose to hit the parent and child. Why? Cultural differences. Asia puts a lot of emphasis on respecting their elderly while N. America has a culture of 'save/ protect the children'. Are these AV's going to respect that culture? Is a VW Jetta or Buick Envision AV going to have different programming depending on whether it's sold in Canada or Taiwan? how's that going to effect legislation and legal battles when a crash inevitibly does happen? These are the true barriers to mass AV adoption, and in the 10 years since that test came out, there has been zero answers or progress on this matter. So no, I'm not afraid of AV's simply because with the exception of a few specific situations, most avenues are going to prove to be a dead-end for automakers.
  • Mike Bradley Autonomous cars were developed in Silicon Valley. For new products there, the standard business plan is to put a barely-functioning product on the market right away and wait for the early-adopter customers to find the flaws. That's exactly what's happened. Detroit's plan is pretty much the opposite, but Detroit isn't developing this product. That's why dealers, for instance, haven't been trained in the cars.
  • Dartman https://apnews.com/article/artificial-intelligence-fighter-jets-air-force-6a1100c96a73ca9b7f41cbd6a2753fdaAutonomous/Ai is here now. The question is implementation and acceptance.
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