#NewCarSales

New car sales in Europe’s largest market Germany are settling into levels slightly above last year, as registration data by Germany’s Kraftfahrtbundesamt show. With 258.253 cars sold in October, sales in the month were 0.6 percent above the same month in the prior year. 10 months into the year, Germans registered 2.66 million new cars, up 9.8 percent compared to the same period in 2010.

From the Detroit News all the way to the Miami Herald, you will receive the good news that “China’s July auto sales are up 6.7 percent.” They are not. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), automobile production in China rose 1.26 percent in July to 1,306,100. Sales rose 2.18 percent to 1,275,300. In case you don’t read Chinese, China Daily provides a translation. The numerical crime was perpetrated again by the Associated Press. The AP is a repeat offender.

New car sales were up 9.9 percent in July in Germany, says the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt. As the picture above shows, sales are slightly above 2010 (red line) and below the Abwrackprämien-addled 2009. Normalcy ensues in Deutschland, which is mostly on vacation anyway. The summer months are not for car buying, they are for car driving.

Our patent-pending China sales oracle is in top form. As predicted, the Chinese market awoke from the doldrums in June and rose 6.2 percent from a year earlier to 1.11 million units. This according to a data released today by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).

Germans bought 288,382 new cars in June, that’s pretty much the same (-0.3 percent) as in June 2010. A month does not a year make: In the first half of 2011, 1.62 million cars changed hands in Deutschland, that’s 10.5 percent more than 2010, say data released today by the Kraftfahrtbundesamt.

New car sales in Japan dropped in June, but the drop was not as steep as it was in May.

Domestic sales of new cars and trucks, excluding minivehicles, fell 23.3percent on the year to 225,024 vehicles the Japan Automobile Dealers Association said today.

China’s auto sales fell 3.98 percent to 1.3828 million in May. Production dropped 4.89 percent to 1.3489 million units. This according to data released today by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), and reported by China’s state news agency Xinhua.

Three cheers for our patent-pending TTAC China sales oracle, a.k.a. GM China. It nailed the number pretty closely in May. GM China’s May sales were down 2.7 percent. All percentages compared to May 2010.

Zhu Yiping, CAAM’s assistant secretary general, said the decline in May was caused by the removal of tax incentives in car purchases this year, rising fuel costs, and the purchase limits in some cities that were put in place to combat traffic congestion.

May shapes up to be an accommodating month for China watchers: There’s something for everybody. You want to see the Chinese bubble burst? May will give that to you. You want cliché-confirmation, you want to hear that Chinese hate Japanese? May gives you automotive anti-Japan pogroms. You want GM up? No problem, May has got that. You want GM down? No problem, May has got that. You want unbridled growth? May can do.

Or as the Chinese say: “May wen ti!” No problem!

First, let’s have a look at our patent-pending TTAC China sales oracle, a.k.a. GM China.

In the merry month of May, Germans celebrated their new-found love for das Auto. Europe’s largest auto market grew 22 percent year-on-year and 14.4 percent month-on-month. That according to just released statistics by the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt.

The German new car market grew a nice 11.4 percent in March. For the first quarter of 2011, the German market is up by 13.9 percent. This according to monthly registration statistics, released by Germany’s Kraftfahrtbundesamt. The picture above however says more than the 306 words of this article.

The new year doesn’t start well for UK auto sales. New car sales on the islands are down 11.5 percent for January. This is the gist of data given by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) to UKPA (via Google). The society is not surprised, said they expected it, and that the decline was in line with its forecast.

You think only in America can we have good January sales? Over in Germany, things are looking up as well. Coincidentally, the growth rates are similar: Car sales in the U.S. went up 17 percent, Germans bought 16.5 percent more cars than in last year’s January. These are no “deliveries” or “sales to wholesale”, these are honest to goodness registrations, brought to you by the number crunchers of the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt.

A week ago, we swam against the trend of China analysts who predicted a 30-40 percent rise in March new car sales in the Middle Kingdom. By using our patent-pending TTAC forecasting methodology, we projected China’s sales rising between 50 and 60 percent in March. The numbers are in. We were wrong.

European new car sales have fallen back to crisis levels. With many of the incentive programs withdrawn or phasing out, it’s back to reality. Reality is quite rough. Basically, Europe is back where it was in the carmageddon days of early 2009. The few bright spots are caused by on-going life support measures. Without government generosity, the European market place would be a wasteland.

New passenger car registrations in the EU increased by a mere 3 percent in February. Compared to the pre-crisis levels of February 2008, new car registrations decreased by 16 percent, reports the European Automobile Manufacturers Association ACEA.

German car buyers boycotted the showrooms in February. Sales crashed to the tune of 29.8 percent. This according to the German car importers association VDIK via Das Autohaus [sub]. The number is not the official number (yet) but the VDIK is usually reliable. Only 195,000 new cars changed hands, compared to 278,000 in February last year.

Germany is in the vise grips of a huge hangover from the cash-for-clunkers Abwrackprämien-orgy of 2009. In February 2009, the program was launched, and sales started to take off by 21 percent. Sales reached a 40 percent apogee in June. Compared to these numbers, the coming months will look absolutely awful. Small cars and subminiature vehicles, the big gainers of the Abwrackprämie, crashed the most.