#HighFinance

As Steve Rattner described in his book “Overhaul,” the Presidential Auto Task Force very nearly decided not to rescue Chrysler, with the decision coming down to a single vote. Now, it seems, that with Chrysler blaming the “shyster” interest rates on its government loans for its lack of profitability, Chrysler’s viability now depends on rounding up a “lender of second to last resort.” And, according to the latest reports, that rescue-of-a-rescue effort is still very much hanging in the balance as well. If CEO Sergio Marchionne thought the government’s loan terms were “shyster”-ish, he was clearly in need of some context from Wall Street… and he doesn’t seem to be liking it.

Some taxpayer-funded turnarounds just have a little more turnaround than others, according to the GAO’s recent report on the auto bailout [ PDF here], which tracks the progress of the Detroit patients and considers their futures. Sure, GM received quite a bit more government money than Chrysler, but the improvements in GM’s financial performance compared to Chrysler’s are clear. But the GAO still has a number of concerns about the “more than $34 billion” of taxpayer value that’s still floating around, unrecouped, in the rescued automakers. Feel free to peruse the GAO’s full 59-page report, or you can hit the jump for the highlights.

Australian investors in the photo enforcement firm Redflex Traffic Systems voted down a buyout offer from toll road giant Macquarie Bank and the asset management firm Carlyle Group at a general meeting in Melbourne today. The recently sweetened deal would have paid A$2.75 per share, or $305 million total, to take over the speed camera and red light camera business.

“Your directors unanimously recommend that shareholders vote in favor of the improved scheme proposal, in the absence of a superior proposal,” Redflex Chairman Max Findlay told assembled shareholders. “I can confirm that no superior proposal has been received.”

Saab’s got a new short-term lease on life, as Automotive News Europe [sub] reports that the Swedish brand has secured a €30m, six-month convertible loan from Gemini Investment Fund. Saab is also requesting a €29.1 drawdown of its EIB loan, and when that is approved next week, Saab will reach the €59.1m in liquidity it needs to restart production. According to another piece by Automotive News [sub], Saab is still in talks with the Chinese automakers Great Wall Motor Co., China Youngman Automobile Group Co. and Jiangsu Yueda Group Co. in hopes of securing an additional investment in the struggling Swedish automaker, as well as a joint venture for Chinese production of the next-generation 9-3, and a possible Chinese market distribution deal.

Meanwhile, Saabsunited reports that several companies have been told to stop development on that next-gen 9-3 while the company gets back on its feet, meaning it could be delayed into the 2013 timeframe. And while Saab sacrifices long-term development for short-term survival, the recent production shutdown is taking its toll: Swedish sales of the 9-3 are up, but the new 9-5 is falling off (128 sold last month) as stocks dry up. The drama continues…

Chrysler’s Q1 conference call is just beginning, and though you can’t listen in unless you’re registered media, you can download the slide set here [PDF] and the press release here. Besides, I’ll be updating this post with the latest as it happens, so why bother? Marchionne is just noting that Chrysler’s $116m Q1 profit is the first since 2009, although he seems more excited about “modified operating profit” of $477m, and free cash flow of other $2.526b.

The Swedish National Debt Office has approved Saab’s deal to sell property to its Russian backer, Vladimir Antonov, but the Swedish firm is still waiting on approval of the deal from the European Investment Bank. Saab’s production operations have been shut down for two weeks, since the automaker began having trouble paying its suppliers. The EIB says its must simply review the deal, which would include the sale of Saab’s property to an Antonov-owned bank as well as the release of the remainder of Saab’s EIB loan, although GM gets to review the deal as well before it goes through according to thelocal.se. And since GM has long opposed Antonov taking a large share of Saab, which owns rights to some of its latest technology, Saab is reportedly also talking to several Chinese firms about partnerships that could save the struggling automaker.

With GM’s share price slipping below $30, the cries are going up again around the internet about the government’s stake in the bailed-out automaker. Thus far the Treasury has remained mum on its exit strategy, only indicating that it would emphasize speed rather than maximum return as it charted the course for its sell-off. But now, Reuters reports that “a big chunk” of the government’s 33% remaining stake in GM could be sold “in the summer or fall.” With the government’s shares “locked up” until May 22, that could mean the government is bailing as quickly as possible at a time when GM’s stock is hitting post-bankruptcy lows, and its CEO offers little in the way of explanations beyond blaming the Japanese tsunami and rising fuel prices. The Wall Street Journal figures taxpayers would lose $11b on its “investment” in GM equity if the government sold at today’s prices (the stock must hit $53 for break-even), but reports that political motivations outweigh fiscal considerations. The White House does not want “Government Motors” to be an issue in the next election.

Ask an industry-watcher to name an automaker that seems to be doing things right, and chances are one of the top choices would be Ford Motor Company. And though Ford is enjoying favorable perceptions in the media, according to the company’s own internal goals, it’s actually underperforming. And in a key metric, no less: retail market share. Bloomerg reports:

That’s right folks, for the first (and likely only) time, Fiat will be putting cash on the table for Chrysler’s equity, as Reuters reports that Fiat’s new credit facility will include $1.5b with which to exercise the 16% call option in its agreement with the US Treasury. At that rate, Chrysler’s market value would be under $10b, considerably less than the nearly $13b spent on Chrysler’s rescue (not counting assistance to Chrysler Financial). But what is Chrysler actually worth? Hit the jump for a look at what Chrysler’s Shareholder Agreement says about valuation in a Fiat Call Option scenario.

With Fiat flying towards taking a majority stake in its Chrysler subsidiary, Reuters reports that the necessary private loans are very close to being arranged.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc and Bank of America Corp are in advanced discussions with Chrysler to finalize a deal that will replace all of its roughly $7 billion government loans with term loans and bonds, these people said on Thursday.

In addition, the banks will also arrange a revolving credit facility for the automaker’s future liquidity purposes that will remain undrawn, these people said. The revolver will not be used for paying down government loans.

Look for Chrysler to wrap up a deal sometime after it reveals its Q1 financial performance next month.

Back in November of 2009, when GM announced that it would repay its government loans, it didn’t take much investigation to realize that The General was simply shuffling government money from one pocket to the other and that true “payback” was still a ways off. The New York Times asked me to write an op-ed on the subject, and I took the opportunity to point out the reality of the situation and note

G.M.’s global interests are far too diverse for it to serve its taxpayer owners faithfully, and it can’t afford to subjugate its business prerogatives to the political needs of its major shareholder in the White House. So, unless Americans develop a sudden obsession with G.M.’s $40,000 Volt electric car just in time for an I.P.O., taxpayers will be stuck with tens of billions of dollars in losses.

Afterward, while our government contemplates its runaway deficit and getting rid of its 8 percent of Chrysler’s equity, perhaps we’ll get an admission that General Motors still owes the American people. Without one, the relationship between the public and the automaker, and the Obama administration as well, may never be the same.

And now that our government finds itself “contemplating a runaway deficit and getting rid of its 8 percent of Chrysler’s equity,” would you believe that a similar federal money-shuffle is under way? Believe it.

Saab’s inability to pay suppliers led it to request a release of some of its debt collateral by Sweden’s National Debt Office, reports Reuters. The NDO has loaned Saab €400m, but with its Russian backer Vladimir Antonov still unable to inject cash into the company, Saab was forced to ask for some of its NDO loan collateral in order to cover its supplier debts. But, according to another Reuters report, NDO spokesfolks say

It is clear what the problem is and everyone possible is trying to solve the problem… a solution to the problem had seemed in sight, but that in the end it did not work out.

The NDO says it will keep working with Saab, and the automaker predicts a resolution by next week (without offering any further details). After a year of independence from GM, the Swedish brand could well be reaching the end of the line.

Earlier this week we learned that Saab can not pay its supplier bills until its Russian sugar daddy, Vladimir Antonov, gets Swedish government approval to buy into the company that owns it. Now, suppliers are speaking out, telling Automotive News [sub] that the brand and its owner, Spyker Cars, owes “tens of millions” of Swedish crowns (10m crowns equals about $1.6m). A representative of the Swedish suppliers association explains

There is a perception in the media that there are discussions on extended credit times and such. But it is not about that, it is about the fact that Saab must pay its bills. If they cannot sort out their financial situation, things look very bleak.

With a “desperate” hunt for investment underway, Saab’s only hope appears to be Antonov, who says he has $71.5m to invest, an amount that should cover the $4.7m+ supplier debts. Meanwhile, work at Trolhattan has been stopped for at least the rest of the week. But even if Antonov gets Swedish government approval to invest, another, equally dire problem appears to be materializing: a dispute over the use of the name “Saab.”