By on August 2, 2018

Tesla announced Wednesday that it lost $743 million in the second quarter of 2018, instantly pushing the automaker’s stock up by nearly double digit figures. No, this particular tidbit isn’t what investors hoped to hear, but CEO Elon Musk, who, unlike in past weeks, made it through the day without saying something overtly controversial, told them enough of what they wanted to hear.

The company’s revenue is up by over a billion dollars compared to the same quarter a year ago — $4 billion as a pre-tax total. Cash on hand was the lowest Tesla’s seen in two years ($2.2 billion), but the automaker’s reduced cash burn impressed some skeptics and reassured believers in Musk’s pledge to return to a positive cash flow in the third and fourth quarters. Having achieved its 5,000-Model-3s-per-week production goal, Tesla claims volume will crank up to 6,000 per week by late August. 10,000 per week comes in 2019.

There was even an apology from Musk for his bizarre behavior during a May earnings call, in which he snubbed analysts while acting like a bored teenager.

And did you know the Model 3 outsells all premium midsize sedans combined? Yeah, about that…

There’s other negatives buried in Tesla’s Q2 report — among them an anticipated impact on volume in China (due to a 40 percent tariff), the looming phase-out of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit (next year), and reduced customer deposits (new variants of the Model 3 will reverse it in Q3, Tesla insists) — but the midsize sedan segment statement needs to be dealt with.

“In July 2018, Model 3 not only had the #1 market share position in its segment in the US, it outsold all other mid-sized premium sedans combined, accounting for 52% of the segment overall,” the company wrote. “The popularity of Model 3 is a true testament to the product.”

That last sentence is worthy of an online search for panel gaps, window malfunctions, and lengthy delays for service, all of which you’ll find on forums and subreddits. But what counts as the premium midsize sedan segment? What massive body of challengers did Tesla just wipe the floor with?

Turns out it’s just five vehicles. The BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Audi A4, Jaguar XE, and Lexus IS. Just look at this graph:

Image: tesla

As symmetrical as it is phallic, the graph is also glaring in its omissions. Where’s the Cadillac ATS? Infiniti Q50? Acura TLX? Volvo S60? Seems mighty selective.

But analysts weren’t pressing Musk on his company’s competition — it was production they wanted to hear about.

“A total vehicle output of 7,000 vehicles per week, or 350,000 per year, should enable Tesla to become sustainably profitable for the first time in our history – and we expect to grow our production rate further in Q3,” Tesla wrote in its letter to shareholders.

Model 3 production in the third quarter is pegged at 50,000-55,000, which actually works out to around 4,000 per week, implying some sort of downtime for the model’s two production lines. One of those lines (GA4) is housed in a tent — a makeshift structure Musk praised up and down. While he assured shareholders that Tesla’s Fremont assembly operation will not become a mainly outdoor affair, he sees no reason to change what’s happening in GA4.

A planned Gigafactory located in Shanghai will produce around 250,000 vehicles a year after it opens in three years’ time, the shareholder letter said, rising to 500,000 vehicles sometime after. The cost of the assembly plant would be funded through loans from local banks, Musk explained. The company’s also sourcing a location for a European facility.

Would the company hit its goal of 1 million vehicles in 2020? Musk responded by saying probably — though there’s a chance it might be as low as 750,000. He told analysts that Fremont can handle up to 600,000 vehicles, with Shanghai covering the rest.

Apparently the timeline for that Chinese plant differs depending on who Tesla, or Musk, is talking to.

[Image: Elon Musk/Twitter]

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53 Comments on “Tesla’s Wild Second Quarter: Revenue Up, Losses Up, Cash Burn Down, and Some Head-scratching Statements...”


  • avatar
    Sub-600

    Now that Tesla has these cars on the road it’ll be interesting to see how their customer service shakes out.

    • 0 avatar
      hreardon

      There are a bunch of articles starting to appear that address this topic. The short answer is: not very well. Parts shortages, long waits/delays, etc.

      Of course these things can all be remedied, the question is: once the early adopter market is tapped out, will Tesla have refined the process enough to please the mainstream?

      If you’ve never worked in the service industry, you’ve no idea what “mainstream” is like – and it ain’t pretty.

  • avatar
    EBFlex

    Musk is a dirty liar. There hasn’t been a more flagrant display of dishonesty from a CEO and yet this guy, for some reason, can get away with it.

    And still the Tesla cult just keeps on blindly supporting this con man.

    Unbelievable.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      Exactly which statements are lies? If he’s such a liar, the Board would replace him.

      • 0 avatar
        srh

        He’s had more than his share of unsupported statements. Half-truths, if not outright lies. Heck the article points out one, that the Model 3 “outsells all other mid-sized premium sedans”.

        That said, I’m not a Tesla hater and I don’t understand that attitude. I do think Musk should put away his twitter pencil for a (long, long) time, but even if he’s lying about Model 3 marketshare, it’s still pretty remarkable how much volume it’s moving. I’m not in line to buy any Tesla at this point, because the quality control is below my tolerance level for a purchase of that size, but I’m happy to admit that what Musk has accomplished is nothing short of astounding. I’d give TSLA a 50/50 chance of survival, but I’m rooting for them and don’t understand those who are rooting /against/ them. Why???

        Yes, maybe eventually they’ll run out of early adopters. I thought the same thing about Apple when they introduced a $400 MP3 player. And 17 years later I’m amazed at how many people who don’t have $1000 in the bank for an emergency will now shell out $1000 per year for a new iPhone.

    • 0 avatar
      EBFlex

      “I get it. You really like the car you have, and feel the need to piss on every other brand. That’s fine – everyone has their right to an opinion.”

      Completely false….you’d be a good Tesla spokesperson.

  • avatar
    thegamper

    Head scratching indeed. Tesla shares surged overnight. Musk promised profitability from here on out barring act of god or recession. Musk also promised not to raise new capital. Those are some pretty bold statements. I assume that they have other models they will be bringing to market in the coming years, new segments, may also require increasing production capacity here and abroad. They will need to raise new capital or have significantly more positive cash flow in order to grow. They should be able to raise capital if he can stay profitable for a few quarters.

    I agree with SUB600 though, a real barrier will be when the $35K model hits and sells in decent numbers. The broader customer net that Tesla needs will be less and less about fan boi’s that are willing to look the other way when it comes to quality and service problems. Pulling in more people who are used to mass market quality on par with Toyota, Ford, Subaru, etc will really change the ball game. This will probably be where Tesla sinks or swims and determine if Tesla will be confined to being a niche player or can break into mass market.

    • 0 avatar
      Malforus

      Not sure if you and Sub missed the news but TESLA has been backpeddling from the concept of the $35k Model 3 since they used up their government subsidies:
      https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/07/tesla-drops-35000-price-from-model-3-page-insists-plans-havent-changed/

      Its not going to happen for obvious reasons:
      – Headwinds get harder with the subsidy in phase-out mode
      – Profitability is demanded by financiers and a loss-leading high volume model undermines that
      – They are barely able to keep up with the premium model 3 orders (where they actually make money) and there is only brand value in peddling a $35k Model 3 not actual dollars.
      – The lurking service bomb only gets worse if you push the car further downmarket.

    • 0 avatar
      brandloyalty

      They should have no problem matching Ford quality.

      • 0 avatar
        thegamper

        I knew someone would chime in with that haha. I have owned primarily Japanese branded vehicles in my lifetime, but have owned one Ford in recent memory. Of the dozen or so vehicles I have had in the last 2 decades or so, they have all been pretty bulletproof for the time I drove them. I had a Flex that was flawless for 3 years. And the least reliable vehicle I had….A brand new Honda. So, I think most people have accepted the fact that most new vehicles are pretty reliable including GM and Ford with really only a few outliers. I have been driving since the 1990’s and have never been stranded by a car. (Knock on wood), if Tesla can give me that, I would actually consider one. I don’t think they are there yet.

      • 0 avatar
        wayneoh

        yes, I am really put off that my 2016 F150 with the 2.7 EB ( that has never seen a shop except for oil changes ) still has the one and only recall that has not been addressed. It’s about door locks that may freeze up in the Winter. I live in frigid, Central Florida. What’s taking them so long ?
        Damn Ford quality !

  • avatar
    thegamper

    That is true and would be a big positive provided Tesla can keep repair times down, parts in stock, staff at requisite levels to service demand and …….not be flooded with production quality issues that have to be brought back for service/repair earlier and more often that your average manufacturers.

    If people are having to wait weeks to get thing fixed, or have to make multiple service trips in the first year of ownership, it will stop being a positive.

    • 0 avatar
      mcs

      There are also cooperation issues around third-party repair shops for out of warranty cars. We have a guy here in Massachusetts that does third-party repair of Teslas and he’s been having some trouble with them. They should be doing everything they can to help him.

  • avatar
    EBFlex

    Tesla has absolutely zero advantage over ICE cars. They don’t have the dealer network, they don’t have the experience/knowledge, and they don’t have the staff.

    There are a lot of horror stories on Tesla service. Its awful.

    • 0 avatar
      mcs

      It’s nothing to do with ICE cars vs. EVs. It’s about starting a new auto company and ramping up the volume. Even if it was an ICE car company, they’d have the same problems and probably a few more.

      The lack of independent dealers is an advantage in some ways, negative in others. I think they should set up some independent service and delivery shops, but keep the sales end of the business to themselves.

    • 0 avatar
      EBFlex

      I didn’t say they don’t have a dealer network.

  • avatar
    danio3834

    The point here is “if they wanted to”. Tesla dealers rate near the bottom for dealer experience.

  • avatar
    mcs

    At least they are finally at the point where they are making money on the 3. I missed seeing that little fact in this post, but maybe it’s my reading comprehension.

    “The Model 3’s gross margins, a measure of the revenue that the company retains after costs associated with producing it, turned “slightly positive” in Q2, according to the company. ”

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/1/17639588/tesla-earning-q2-2018-model-3-production

    • 0 avatar
      EBFlex

      How could the gross margins turn “slightly positive” NOW, when a few months ago it was the most profitable electric car in the auto industry?

      Or was that just more lies to protect this terrible company and their sleazy CEO?

      • 0 avatar
        mcs

        That was based on independent teardowns of the 3 by two different engineering firms and was based on 5k a week production and deliveries. I think the independent was saying about a 30% margin at 5k per week. The actual numbers aren’t known, so it’s really an outside independent guess. Now we’re getting real information out of Tesla and they’ve passed whatever point where they are making money on each 3 that they manage to ship to a customer.

    • 0 avatar
      Guitar man

      They made a record loss. The whole of last year they lost under $1bn. This year they lost $717m in ONE quarter. They are losing money on every single car they sell.

  • avatar
    hreardon

    Since we’re all armchair quarterbacking, I’ll jump in with a distillation of what’s going on:

    Tesla has a great opportunity in front of it, but a monumental set of challenges as they relate to balancing cash, production volume, production quality, customer service and support.

    The business needs cash, above all. Cash for engineering, production, sales, after sales, etc. Competing interests that all have equal claim on their need for that cash.

    Musk is running a tight balancing act – one about to get a lot more precarious once the Germans introduce their competing product over the next few weeks and months. As such, Tesla is going to look like a teetering mess for the foreseeable future.

    The challenges they face are absolutely monumental, and I am not convinced they’re going to make it, especially after the early adopters are gone and the premium segment competition is in volume next year.

    But, I’m willing to be proven wrong.

    • 0 avatar
      mcs

      HReardon: Yeah, I pretty much agree with you. The Germans are a bit further behind though and I think Jaguar has been having some manufacturing issues of their own. I want a Taycan, but I have to wait a year for it and there will probably be a wait beyond that. I might actually buy a Tesla because I’m thinking I might be waiting two years for a Taycan. So, Tesla probably has at least a 1-year head start and maybe 2 on serious competition. I think in that time they can solve their problems. Also, the current long range 3 will soon cost about $28k to make. When the Chinese factory ramps up and costs are down, we could see a Chinese low end 3 at $20k cost to produce. At that point, they’ll be able to rumble with the big boys.

      Can they get a Chinese factory up in 2 years? Watch for a second bigger tent in China. Mark my words. They’ll build a permanent building at some point, but I bet they start out with a tent.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      As for the Porsche Taycan… it will be very good, but its volume will be low, and the losses will be paid for by the rest of the product line.

      As you know, Tesla now owns the EV market with volume. Anyone wishing to take their market share will have to invest billions for years.

      IMO, Tesla’s competition is themselves.

      • 0 avatar
        mcs

        Yeah, the Taycan will be low volume, but trust me, Porsche will make money on it. That’s what they do and they do it well. They can set the prices where they want and they’ll be paid. Even the base model will make money. Then they pull out a big calculator and start racking up money on the trim and wheel options. I want the inductive charging – and I can only imagine what that will cost. The GF wants silver with red interior. That’s going to cost. They’ll pull a Tesla and the not ship the base model until 2012, so if you don’t load it up, you ain’t seeing it for a while.

      • 0 avatar
        hreardon

        Taycan isn’t the important one: Audi’s e-tron, launching next month, is the big test.

        The bigger issue is the size of the electric vehicle market in the short run: how quickly will it expand? Tesla is absolutely synonymous with “electrification”, but how much does the broader market really want it?

        Again: what happens when the early adopters have had their fill? Apple was thrilled with the initial six month sales of the original Macintosh and the original Newton Messagepad. But, when the early adopters had their fill, Apple quickly discovered that the broader market wasn’t quite as interested in what they had to offer….until about 15 years later in both products’ case.

        Moonshots in the auto industry rarely pay off: they’re massively expensive, and if your new technology cannot compete on price with the other offerings in the space, you’re ‘effed. It’s why you don’t really see competitors leapfrogging one another – they stay within reasonable competitive bounds. Going further out than that is usually ridiculously expensive.

        There’s also further improvements to be made with ICE and I’m also a firm believer that hybridization is going to be the strong middle path for quite some time.

        • 0 avatar
          mcs

          Test drive a Tesla and you’ll see why everyone is excited. Far superior to an ICE. But, you’ve got to drive one and experience it for yourself. Don’t take my word for it.

          As they proliferate, more people will be trying out friend’s and family member cars. Once you’ve driven one, you’re hooked. I’d hate to go back to driving an ICE.

          Battery tech is moving along. There have been a lot of advancements with solid electrolytes and electrodes including solving the all-important manufacturing problems. Cobalt is being eliminated as well. That means cheap EVs are on the way. Charging speed and charging availability is improving as well. Look at the Taycan’s charging speed.

          Every time prices come down and range improves, the market will grow.

          There is also another factor that will come into play. Since most of the initial adoption of EVs will be from people with higher incomes, ICE will eventually be associated with being poor or being old. Market perception/status will drive EV adoption at some point. Image drives car sales.

          • 0 avatar
            hreardon

            I’ve driven several and yes, I do enjoy them.

            The mass market could care less about what’s under the hood – this has been proven by the ability for luxury brands to stuff 4-bangers into their products and get the market to buy them.

            I have absolutely no doubt they’ll take to EVs…as soon as two psychological and one financial hurdles are overcome: range anxiety and fast recharge on the mind, and financial parity on the other.

            What we armchair folks don’t understand is that a $10/mo. sway in monthly payments means the difference between a Camry or an Accord for a *massive* segment of the market. Tesla may have the superior technology, but the cost structure is still out of whack. Improving, but they’ve got a ways to go.

          • 0 avatar
            mcs

            @hreardon: Yeah, it’s going to be a while. I think it won’t be until at least 2025 until they really start going mainstream.

            That’s based on solid-state batteries being in mass productions – probably using Ionic Materials of Woburn MA technology. Some of the new durable electrode materials in mass production. Ultrafast 350 to 400 kW charging technology along with Shell Recharge and some of the other oil company charging networks expanding into the US.

            Of course, if Iran mines the straits of hormuz, adoption might be a little sooner. If not in the US, the rest of the world will move much faster.

            BTW, I’m a huge investor in Permian Basin Mineral rights and have a good income from those investments. I’m not planning on getting rid of them any time soon, but I am investing in battery technology to hedge.

    • 0 avatar
      mcs

      @big3: ” is the consistency of the incompetence of Tesla’s competitors.”

      Yep. Already starting with Jaguar. Also, the Taycan is only 20k per year and I’m not sure when I’d see one if I order it. Mercedes has the EQC in a year maybe.

      https://electrek.co/2018/07/26/jaguar-i-pace-delay/

      As far as charging networks go, I’m already seeing a Maven Bolt/Uber infestation of the Electrify America chargers. They take up half or all of the chargers every time I stop at one. Sleeping in their cars while charging.

    • 0 avatar
      Art Vandelay

      “Seven years after the Model S was introduced”

      This brings up another issue. Is there a new Model S on the horizon? We are talking about a luxury car that has had only a minor refresh over the course of 7 years with an interior that doesn’t stack up to the BMW’s, Benzes, and others in that price class.

      This has been fine because those other makes haven’t been building stuff that directly competes. But now that they are starting to How will Tesla extend beyond their current buyer/fanbase. For an objective person that simply wants a luxury electric…people for whom the Tesla isn’t the default choice that stuff matters as others get in the game. Yes, they have loyal followers, but so do the Germans…So does Lexus.

      If the range and the performance are the same or similar, how does Tesla win the buyer willing to spend six figures when the other makes are going to likely offer higher quality assembly (panel gaps, etc), and a much nicer cabin with a vehicle that is going to be pushing a decade old soon.

      Tesla buyers are a loyal lot…I get it, but so are 7 series and S class buyers. Tesla had better not neglect the S…They can’t afford to be seen as a company that is anything less than premium with traditional premium makes getting in the game.

      If I were running Tesla I’d cut all the BS distractions. Refresh the X to something that is competitive in the class (large, premium SUV), Get an SUV based on the 3 to market yesterday that again, isn’t handicapped by some dumb design “feature” like the doors, and give the S a thorough refresh (I’m guessing a new design isn’t practical at this point) that includes a super premium interior that is on par with Germany’s best. Or don’t and become the electric equivalent of the Dodge Challenger.

  • avatar
    hreardon

    Big3 –

    Owning the entire customer relationship can be a good thing – assuming you can afford to do it. Apple can do it because of their “density of product” and margins: in other words, each Apple Store carries large quantities of high-margin products, and the stores also act as training and service centers.

    Another advantage: People will stop into Apple Stores multiple times per year, at least once every two years for a new iPhone. This gives Apple an opportunity to expose consumers to other products and then cross-sell them Macs, iPads, speakers, software, etc.

    In short – Apple Stores are immensely profitable per square foot, and work wonders for reinforcing the brand.

    Tesla does not have much to cross-sell, and Tesla buyers are generally only going to visit Tesla stores when they want a new Tesla. Tesla Stores will have to start carrying more inventory, which is an additional cost structure. Cars are not iPhones, neither in terms of cost structure or physical size.

    So, while Tesla may “control” the sales and service side of things, the cost burden of doing so must be astronomical.

    One of the reasons the traditional automakers really *don’t* want to own the retail side of things is because of the cost structure. Right now, they get to invoice a car when it’s loaded onto a truck or train.

    • 0 avatar
      hreardon

      Don’t doubt they want to cross-sell those things, but those are really one time, big ticket purchases – not consumer electronics purchases.

      I’m also not opposed to home solar and power systems, but that’s a space where I don’t see widespread adoption for quite some time because of the costs associated with it: you’re essentially taking a public good (power), and privatizing the risks.

      Not saying it’s a bad idea to spread solar panels, just that I know a lot of people who have slate roofs: when it comes time to repair or replace them, it’s scary expensive.

      • 0 avatar
        Jagboi

        It’s geographical too, solar works in southern California. It doesn’t work in Canada in the winter when the days are short. Los Angeles has 10 times the solar energy fall on the ground in January compared to Edmonton, Alberta

  • avatar
    incautious

    all the other sedans off AWD for a lot less money than a M3 RWD. The total market share for a RWD 4 RD sedan is around 1% Other than California and some southern states who would spend 55K on and RWD sedan.

  • avatar
    R Henry

    Ford produced 7000 Model A’s worldwide during a single day in 1929.

  • avatar
    Sub-600

    Musk fluffers are a curious lot. They rationalize Tesla even when nobody questions them, it’s as if they’re trying to convince themselves that they’ve made a sound decision.

    • 0 avatar
      mcs

      You need to drive one to see for yourself. Unfortunately, the nearest place for you to drive one is probably Toronto. Maybe try out a Chevy Bolt instead. But if you’re going to start calling people fluffers, you need to at least get some first-hand experience as to what they are talking about.

      • 0 avatar
        Art Vandelay

        I have. I don’t get it but then again my chief concerns were lightweight and a manual trans. The S was a great luxury car, but I preferred the 7 series but again, I’m probably not the typical buyer but if the 7 had an electric drivetrain with similar specs it would be a no brainier.

        But again, I enjoy driving. Yes the S is big, soft, and quiet. We used to slap Brougham badges on such cars. That’s cool, but not my cup of tea.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      It’s best to differentiate between Musk fans, Tesla fans, and EV fans; they’re not all the same.

      I was sold on EVs when I drove a Leaf and had one for 3 years, but that didn’t make me a fan of Nissan.

      I cancelled my Model 3 reservation for many reasons, but I’m still a fan of the company.

      As for Musk, he’s doing a lot of things right, but he should stop tweeting and he should stop micromanaging Tesla.

  • avatar
    SCE to AUX

    We can debate the precise numbers, but it’s interesting that a serious discussion can ensue about whether the Model 3 has outsold the BMW 3-Series only a year after TM3 production started.

    People can shout “Musk is a liar” all they want, but the arguments are now over thousands of cars, not a handful.

  • avatar
    Lockstops

    Another blatant lie by Musk and Tesla:
    Those Model 3 vs other sedans numbers are not comparable numbers for the numerous reasons I pointed out in another thread:
    -Pent-up long-term demand being served in one avalanche right now after over a year of delays vs. most people choosing BMW already having theirs in the garage
    -Only one model in that price range vs. BMW having about a dozen different bodystyles (2-series in several bodystyles, 3-series, 4-series, 5-series, X1, X2, X3, X4…) So not only do BMW sales in that price range get divided up between many different models and different body styles of 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5 series but people nowadays mostly choose BMW SUVs instead of 3-series sedans, and of those in the price range there are 4 different models that divide up the sales. Tesla has no SUV in that price range so all of their demand is funneled into that one single sedan model whereas with BMW you have to add up about 8 different models’ sales to compare. And all of those are profitable while they are continuously developing at least 8 new replacement models and countless variations and personalisation options to them too as opposed to Tesla bumbling around with approximately zero options and who knows if they’re able to develop future replacements for that one model…
    -Domestic brand vs. foreign (look at Fiat sales numbers in Italy, Citroen in France etc…)
    -Model 3 is a brand new model vs. BMW 3-series is exactly now at the end of its model cycle.

    Tesla doesn’t even get up to even a third of just BMW’s offerings in that price range. And BMW is profitable even though they are spending and investing in what real companies are supposed to unlike the shambles of Tesla.

    • 0 avatar
      Art Vandelay

      BMW moved 175,368 vehicles through July 31. BMW has shifted to Crossovers in a big way as has most of the market, for better or worse. So BMW crossovers outsell the entire line of Tesla crossovers. Then again, There are probably more 20+ year old type R Integras sold on Bring a Trailer annually than Tesla moves model X’s. Cherrypicking is fun!

    • 0 avatar
      Art Vandelay

      Also, curious Big3…Can we soon expect to hear the phrase “We’ll make it up on volume” from Musk like Roger Smith at GM back in the day? Making cars is one thing. At some point you have to make some money too.

    • 0 avatar
      Lockstops

      Big3, you’re a joke and a liar.

      There are hundreds of thousands more BMWs on American roads right now. If BMW were to stop all manufacturing immediately, wait a year, then release only three models then they would outsell Tesla’s three models many times over, probably at least tenfold for at least a year.

      The fact that you and Tesla once again have to resort to lies and despicable deception in the face of an obvious truth tells a lot about you.

      This is just like the pathetic lie about ‘Autonomous Teslas being safer than human drivers’ which was infantile and spineless.

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