By on April 12, 2018

Model Y teaser, Image: Tesla Motors

In June 2017, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told shareholders that the company’s upcoming Model Y crossover, built on its own dedicated platform, would appear in 2019. That plan soon changed, with Musk deciding (under pressure) that the new vehicle would share much of its architecture with the Model 3 sedan. The timeline remained hazy, as Tesla timelines are wont to do.

Now, sources close to the company’s supply chain say the Model Y is headed for a November 2019 production start — a timeline one of the sources describes as “aggressive, but possible.”

According to Reuters, Tesla has started accepting preliminary bids for supplier contracts for the upcoming model. While details of the vehicle remain scarce, the company has now floated a production start date, the sources claim.

This tidbit of news comes at the same time as Musk’s appearance on CBS, where he responded to concerns over the company’s continued Model 3 production delays. After missing its first-quarter 2018 target of 2,500 Model 3s per week, Tesla’s target of 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of June remains in place. Bottlenecks and the Fremont crew’s so-called “production hell” haven’t yet faded into the past.

Clearly, Musk wasn’t willing to use the word “delay.”

“There shouldn’t be a question mark as to whether somebody’s gonna get their car, it’s just, yes, you’ll definitely get your car,” Musk said in response to criticism from reservation holders stuck waiting for their vehicle. “It’s gonna be six to nine months longer than expected. It’s a six-to-nine-month time shift, that’s literally it, and three of those months have already passed.”

Between now and the anticipated start of Model Y production, Tesla needs to start production of dual-motor Model 3s as well as the cheaper, base version of the sedan, and do so in a manner that doesn’t drain resources from other areas of the factory. The company claims it doesn’t need to raise any more cash this year, but not everyone agrees.

With the Model Y borrowing so much from the Model 3, Reuter‘s sources claim a year and a half of development time might be feasible. Beyond this, predictions reign. Musk told analysts back in February that he wants to build a million Model Ys per year, while the sources claim suppliers see 500,000 as the more likely target. A smaller number would be built in China, they said.

Of course, to hit an annual production figure of 500,000 (or a million) Model Ys per year, Tesla needs to find extra assembly space. Kickoff of Model Y production will occur at the existing Fremont plant, suppliers claim.

[Image: Tesla]

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34 Comments on “Tesla Model Y Starts Production in November 2019, Report Claims...”


  • avatar
    Rnaboz

    Why Oh Y?

    • 0 avatar
      RHD

      By now everyone knows the sequence of Models S, 3, X and Y.
      Which ones will follow? Models M, A and N? Models E, L, O and N?
      Maybe we’ll never know, because some expect that Google or Apple will own Tesla by then. (That may actually be a very good thing!)

      • 0 avatar
        Luke42

        They’re changing to a different naming convention after the S3XY vehicles are on the market.

        The other announced vehicles are the Roadster 2.0 and the Semi — neither of which fit the S3XY naming convention. They’ve been hinting about a pickup truck for a while, which will presumably use the new naming convention.

  • avatar
    markf

    Sure it will, right after they star building 2500 Model 3s a week……..

  • avatar
    TwoBelugas

    I feel bad for those H1B workers at Tesla that were supposedly hired to be high level engineers but in reality are basically indentured servants on the factory floor.

    In other news I bought some Tesla shares at 250 and sold at 310 recently so I look forward to another Tesla bad news day to buy back in. LOL.

  • avatar
    jpolicke

    Are you sure this story isn’t 11 days late? I’d be impressed if they got Model 3 production up to full speed by Nov ‘19. No matter; I’m sure there are tens of thousands of fans waiting for the bell to ring so they can send in their interest free loans/deposits. I wonder what the EV incentives will be in 2022.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      “I wonder what the EV incentives will be in 2022.”

      None for Tesla’s cars, at least at the Federal level. Tesla’s about to start the wind-down of their cars’ eligibility this year, with GM and Nissan soon to follow.

    • 0 avatar
      Middle-Aged Miata Man

      “For a small additional $1000 deposit existing Model 3 position holders can upgrade NOW to the exciting new Model Y due out next year!”

      Just watch. This will happen.

  • avatar
    civicjohn

    No production line, no supplier contracts, and “we’ll be shipping in 19 months”.

    He’s just carrying on with the predictions that he makes and the fanboys go wild.

    I wish Tesla good luck, hell if your market cap is $50 billion, you may be able to accomplish this, but I guarantee you will see a Model Y product reveal soon, and they will start taking deposits, but it won’t be $1,000 this time, it will certainly be more because they have found this to be a good no-cost cash raise.

    The unveil of the Model 3, with the $35,000 price hung dominantly behind Elon is something that is rapidly becoming a dream, the 10-K filings now call that a “variant”, and it’s been pushed to early 2019, when most of the tax credits will have been wiped away. Tesla will never admit as to how many of the reservations on the books are for the base model, but I bet the number is considerable. So if you have a long list of potential buyers that thought they would be able to buy this car for $27,500 with the tax credit, how many will simply ask for their money back?

    If the Model 3 essentially becomes a $45k car, what’s the point in reaching 10k per week production? Is there a global market between now and 2019 that can absorb 500k cars? I don’t think so, but maybe I’m wrong. ICE sedans are a declining market that has been discussed here often, so it makes sense that pushing out an EV CUV will increase demand, but at what cost? It would seem that many of those who were waiting for their Model 3 might decide to wait another year for the Model Y.

    Of course, in the meanwhile, they hang on to their earth-killing ICE vehicles.

    To call Elon PT Barnum is degrading the name of PT. He pulled the camping out crap last year on the roof of the Gigafactory and cooking hot dogs. This time, it’s camping out on the factory floor, I wonder how he got a shave and how the interviewer was able to stand by him if he hasn’t had a shower in a few days.

    • 0 avatar
      incautious

      careful,I think you may have made too much sense.

    • 0 avatar
      Luke42

      “No production line, no supplier contracts, and ‘we’ll be shipping in 19 months’.

      He’s just carrying on with the predictions that he makes and the fanboys go wild.”

      What you don’t know about is the Silicon Valley “stretch goal” culture.

      In the software business, engineering effort == capital in the software business — so a day’s delay in releasing the product costs big money. The business is structured around that constraint.

      Back when I worked at a major dot-com with an ex-Google CEO, we were supposed to set ambitious goals and get 70% of them done. If you got 100% of your goals done, you were insulted for choosing goals which weren’t ambitious enough. If you ended up much below 70% you were underperforming, with all of the career problems that implies.

      Most SV companies have the good sense to keep their stretch goals an internal matter. Tesla shares them with the world.

      I’m very much looking forward to our Model 3, but there’s NFW I’d work at Tesla.

      • 0 avatar
        Lockstops

        Musk’s lies are no ‘internal matters’, they’re a con-artist’s marketing speech to hook new investors. He sells lies, and very successfully. Sometimes on the side he puts together some extremely shoddy, nonsensical car manufacturing shambles (I couldn’t in good conscience call what they do ‘designing’ cars so I left it at manufacturing). But the main business is selling BS to gullible fools.

  • avatar
    thelaine

    Kick the football, Charlie Brown.

  • avatar
    Michael S.

    Tesla seems to be following the Kel Tec vaporware business model.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      The first actual vaporware from Tesla might be the base Model 3.

      Everything else promised so far has actually been delivered, but not on time.

      Ironically, shipping a base Model 3 in quantity might sink the company.

      • 0 avatar
        Luke42

        Tesla is a high-risk business.

        As near as I can tell, Elon Musk is trying to gamble his fortune away on cool geek stuff like electric cars and Mars rockets.

        Honestly, that’s what my 20 year old self assumed I’d be doing now. I’m just glad somebody’s trying it.

      • 0 avatar
        civicjohn

        SCE to AUX,

        “The first actual vaporware”, I’ll have to use this line sometime if you don’t mind!

  • avatar
    Ultraviolet Thunder

    Can’t build enough Model S’s to make the company solvent and yet another joke will escape the assembly line with quality that is worse than American Motors.

    You gotta marvel at the nerve of Muskie Rat for continuing to mask the stench of his ponzi scheme by diluting his funds over every hair-brained scheme he can come up with. Perhaps if he cross dressed like the failed Dale product he’d be more than just a Bricklin or DeLorean with a slightly less bad side to himself.

    Tesla – somewhere one of the cars will run and not kill its driver.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      Given the relative volumes, solvency must come on the back of the Model 3, not the S or X.

      • 0 avatar
        TwoBelugas

        how much money are they making/losing on a non-base Model 3?

        • 0 avatar
          civicjohn

          TwoBelugas,

          Many have tried to answer that question, but their 10-K filings are a moving target. I happen to have the time these days, and my brother is an attorney and CPA. We have ruined many family gatherings while discussing this very topic.

          It’s a mess. You can’t glean from the filings what they are spending on the SuperCharger network,dealerships, service centers, all of which will need CapEx increases to support the number of vehicles delivered.

          Amazing.

  • avatar
    stingray65

    What could be next?

    a Tesla flying car in January 2020? (the gullwing doors flap really fast)

    a rocket powered Tesla SUV fueled by solar panels by April 2020? (synergy with Space X and SolarCity)

    a 4 passenger city car with 300 mile range and target price of $2,995 in early 2021? (achievable with economies of scale at the battery gigafactory)

  • avatar
    dukeisduke

    Every pronouncement by Musk lately is lolworthy.

    Does Y stand for Yugo?

  • avatar
    dima

    at what rate, one per month?

  • avatar
    Steve65

    I’ll be amazed if Tesla still exists in anything resembling its present form by the end of 2019. I’ve been inside companies doing the “try to run forward faster than you’re falling down” thing, and it’s easy to recognise. If the Model 3 doesn’t turn profitable and stable within the next couple of months they’re going to run out of cash. And will eventually run out of “investors” who don’t understand the sunk cost fallacy.

    • 0 avatar
      redmondjp

      I agree. Developing the semi and the Model Y is going to burn another couple hundred million dollars (if it is done properly, and those are low estimates), plus, they will need dedicated production tooling and assembly line space for them which I don’t see happening at their existing factory.

      If it wasn’t for that cash burn, then I can see them staying afloat. Personally, I think the fatal mistake was developing the SUV – if they had spent that time and money on the Model 3 instead, they could be in full production right now and actually making a profit.

  • avatar
    65corvair

    He’s just a big joke. Every time he opens his mouth about a date you it’s know a lie. Yes a lie. I think if GM did what he is doing there would be some laws being broken.

  • avatar
    Davis Jones

    I wonder who would buy testla if they go under

  • avatar
    Shortest Circuit

    “Tesla Model Y Starts Production in November 2019”
    Give or take a few years.

    • 0 avatar
      Luke42

      Publicly announced dates from Tesla are really internal SV-style stretch goals made public.

      No Tesla fanboy, myself included, is expecting an on-time product release. That’s just now how they do things in San Francisco Bay.

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