Record High Automotive Incentives Could Harm Sustained Profitability
Every industry analyst is beginning to sing the same tune. Despite things looking good now, the worm is about to turn. Global sales look poised to remain strong this year but the market has peaked and sales should persist on a graph as a flat line. Next year could be a different story, however, and there’s much apprehension surrounding lengthening loan terms and the upsurge of subprime lessees.
Rising incentives are also causing alarm; J.D. Power and Associates expects the average incentive per new unit to top $4,000 in 2017. While that tactic may get people into dealerships now, it might also harm long-term profitability as the automotive industry swings toward leaner times.
“Looking at the top line, it looks great. We should be giving each other high-fives,” Thomas King, vice president Power Information Network, media, and marketing for J.D. Power, said at New York’s NADA Forum.
Current transaction prices and automaker profit margins are high enough now for a $4,000 incentive average to not be a big deal. But that won’t always be the case and automakers cannot suddenly half their incentive spending when they realize they’re bottom line is shrinking.
“Incentives at industry level only ever rise, they basically never come back down … because everybody is chasing that short-term fix,” King said. “Inevitably, with each escalation [in incentives], you’re going to see some margin pressure on manufacturers [and retailers].”
Although, while King may see this as short sighted, he has yet to announce that the sky is falling. While many analysts anticipate a full-scale disaster, he thinks the industry can come out somewhat unscathed thanks to logistical flexibility and a greater profitability margin. Automotive companies are much better prepared for hard times now than they were in the years leading up to the recession.
Interest rates, while creeping ever upward, are also still relatively low. Chief economist for IHS Markit Nariman Behravesh also spoke at NADA, saying “Short-term and long-term rates are exceptionally low … Even after raising for a couple of years, they will still be exceptionally low by historical standards.” It would seem that, while darker days are definitely coming, just how bleak they will actually be is up for debate.
[Image: Faris/ Flickr ( CC BY 2.0)] [Source: Automotive News]
A staunch consumer advocate tracking industry trends and regulation. Before joining TTAC, Matt spent a decade working for marketing and research firms based in NYC. Clients included several of the world’s largest automakers, global tire brands, and aftermarket part suppliers. Dissatisfied with the corporate world and resentful of having to wear suits everyday, he pivoted to writing about cars. Since then, that man has become an ardent supporter of the right-to-repair movement, been interviewed on the auto industry by national radio broadcasts, driven more rental cars than anyone ever should, participated in amateur rallying events, and received the requisite minimum training as sanctioned by the SCCA. Handy with a wrench, Matt grew up surrounded by Detroit auto workers and managed to get a pizza delivery job before he was legally eligible. He later found himself driving box trucks through Manhattan, guaranteeing future sympathy for actual truckers. He continues to conduct research pertaining to the automotive sector as an independent contractor and has since moved back to his native Michigan, closer to where the cars are born. A contrarian, Matt claims to prefer understeer — stating that front and all-wheel drive vehicles cater best to his driving style.
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Are they really incentives? The manufacture is setting the MSRP for the vehicle and then offering money off of it. It's all a mental game we're playing. If you take a average midsize sedan and price it at 50 thousand and offer 25 thousand in incentives it's no different than pricing it at 30 thousand and offering 5 grand off. The manufacture has realized the profit curve for the amount of cars they need to sell, at what price they have to sell them, and what the market will actually pay. The whole MSRP-incentive game is a joke. Automakers won't need to half there incentives because they can always just raise the MSRP and keep the same incentive and the purchase price will still rise. The consumer won't know the difference and will still think they're getting a great deal. It's possible I'm missing the point of this article, but a manufacturer can decide to sell a lot of cars at a small profit margin or a small amount of cars at a large profit. The incentive game is how they swing back and forth between the two to max profits. I wouldn't take rising or falling incentives as a sign of anything, especially when their based on an arbitrary MSRP.
Crystal ball meth.. say analysts we all know the market's cyclical. Rates are low, monies cheap. Folks are taking on debt.