Chinese Car Sales: Boomlet Or Bustlet?

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

There is a war of opinions over the direction of the Chinese car market. Bloomberg says that “China’s auto sales may fall 10 percent this year with the end of government stimulus policies and restrictions on car licenses, according to the China Automotive Technology & Research Center.” Bloomberg’s colleagues at Reuters called Chen Hong, President of China’s largest automaker SAIC as a witness. He expects the Chinese car market to grow 7.4 percent to end up at 19.7 million units by year’s end. Who’s right? Who’s wrong?

At a SAIC shareholders meeting, Chen Hong maintained his original sales target of 4 million vehicles for the full year for the company. He said his forecast is conservative one, “and even after taking into account all the negative elements the industry is facing, the actual result should be better,” writes Reuters.

Let’s see: In the past, CATRC’s numbers were generally unreliable, to such a degree that the government asked them to refrain from publishing any. SAIC’s predictions always were conservative, and far exceeded by reality. Here’s hoping that it stays that way.

On the other hand: A small bust would be quite common in China.

Join the conversation
  • Obbop Obbop on May 27, 2011

    The bloke in the brown suit upon the still shown that I suppose represents the movie within has a form of Hitleresque-type mustache.

  • Akitadog Akitadog on May 27, 2011

    The video linked to this article is AMAZING (I've seen it too many times), and done on a shoestring budget. Whoever thought you could make economics cool? Check out the sequel that just came out last month:

  • JimothyLite JimothyLite on May 27, 2011

    "A small bust would be quite common in China." As opposed to busts in Germany?