Ask The Best And Brightest: Can It Be Darkest Before the Dawn?

Or, more specifically, what in the NSFW is going on at Suzuki? To this industry observer the last year or so has seemed like one giant shakeout, with the hand of Darwin separating the wheat from the Sebrings. Certain automakers appear to have been grabbed by said hand and dragged screaming down a swirling trough of declining sales, dealerships and revenue. TTAC has foreseen the demise of certain automakers for years, but it started looking like even the marginal firms (as compared to just the downright dysfunctional) were caught in the inexorable downward spiral, never to return. Take Suzuki. The firm lost 60 dealers in ’08 as sales tanked and floorplanning credit dried up. Even as late as last month, Automotive News [sub] reported the demise of major Suzuki dealers as every possible trend seemed to be pulling the plucky brand underwater. And several TTAC contributors have labeled Suzuki as a “marginal player” doomed to expire at the hand of Car Sales Suckapocalypse. But something happened. Suzuki’s either experiencing the mother of all dead cat bounces, or maybe, just maybe, the hand of Darwin screwed one up.

Entering 2009, Suzuki’s sales were in the toilet. Zook dealers were moving about 3,650 units nationwide in December 08 and January 09. Things got even worse in February, as sales eroded to under 3,500 units. By February, the few remaining Suzuki dealers were applauding the firm’s decision to “not aggressively market 2009 models,” thanks to 100+ day supplies of ’08s, according to AN [sub]. In March, however, amid the news of further dealer closures, Suzuki sales suddenly did an about-face. Sure, XL7 continued to tank (down 73 percent) while Forenza/Reno and Grand Vitara saw industry-average declines (-43 and -33 percent, respectively). But Suzuki has been saved by its most competitive product: its SX4’s sales hit 4,794 units last month, single-handedly eclipsing total sales results from many previous months.

On the one hand, this is not a huge surprise. Suzuki’s February decision to cut back on dealership deliveries was accompanied by a $4K incentive on SX4, Grand Vitara and XL7. Then-TTAC contributer Johnny Lieberman praised the SX4‘s styling, ergonomics, value and performance, even favorably comparing the Suzy’s handling to his own beloved WRX. Though the model has undeniable downsides (notably freeway performance and mpg), it seemed to be one of those cars that car writers love but has buyers lined up none-deep. Already the cheapest AWD offering on the US market at $16,439 ($17K and small change for navi-equipped models), $4K on the hood makes the SX4 Wagon a downright steal.

Surprise! Automotive News [sub] reports that SX4 incentives were down to $1K during the March buying spree. And that’s with credit-crunch APR rates of 7.9 to 10.9 percent. And here’s the really weird part: according to AN, three-quarters of March SX4 sales were of FWD-only sedan sales. Clearly folks weren’t tuning into the auto-journo-beloved value proposition of the Impreza-lite SX4 wagon. Something else is going on. Is it Suzuki’s “mightier than MINI” ad campaign? Is Suzuki grabbing fleet sales from Chrysler and GM residual-weary rental firms? Or does the SX4 sedan offer something that has failed to catch the eye of typically enthusiast-oriented car reviewers? I hope to answer this last question by driving a few of these unlikely sales heroes (if I can find one . . . Suzuki is warning of shortages). In the mean time, a larger question looms: is it possible that we wrote off Suzuki too soon? Can firms that appear to have been wholly abandoned by consumers make a sudden comeback? Or am I missing something?