#Sales

Dearest TTAC readers,

I’ve come to know you incredibly well over the last seven years. I realize that what I’m about to tell you is somewhat akin to waving a dripping piece of red meat in front of a starving, caged tiger. But, like Bane, I am here for you, the people, and I’m willing to suffer abuse at your hands because the truth will ultimately set you free.

I also know that because much of my source material for this blog post was given to me anonymously and confidentially by one of the most influential dealers in the country, you’ll scream something like “I WANT TO SEE YOUR DATA,” but such is life, guys. I can’t show his numbers to you. I’ve substituted some data from the National Auto Dealer Association’s Mid-Year report for 2018 (the final 2018 report isn’t available just yet). You’ll see the correlation.

Now, let’s get into the meat waving bit, shall we. Breathe deeply, and jump in with me as I tell you this:

In 2019, car dealers are happier than ever to sell you a used car instead of a new one. This could make buying used a bad proposition. Here’s why.

America’s appetite for intermediate sedans is disappearing, as the queasiness consumers feel when faced with the prospect of buying a family sedan seems to be settled only by the consumption of crossovers.

They go down smooth.

This isn’t news, of course. TTAC began a close, monthly watch of the U.S. midsize sedan sector in August 2016. Since then, the demise of individual midsize nameplates has continued, and the numbers associated with the segment’s sales performance – as we chronicled earlier this month – have grown more frightening.

Yet there are signs that, at least on the retail front, the midsize sedan segment’s American decline could be levelling off. And that moderation is coinciding with something you might not have anticipated: rising average transaction prices.

Focusing primarily on the U.S. market sometimes leads to a skewed view of what the average global consumer demands in their driveway, but not always. Broader trends don’t respect geographical boundaries; interest in light trucks doesn’t stop at the border.

As American buyers increasingly demand more additions to their high-riding vehicle buffet, the same call can be heard in other markets. And, just as Americans took home more electric vehicles (thanks, Tesla) in 2018, the segment recorded significant growth in places you’ve never visited.

However, the world still loves the Ford F-150. No change there.

Let’s take a global peek at last year’s buying decisions.

“Can we stop the shrinking of the segment?” American Honda boss Jeff Conrad said when launching the 10th-gen Accord. “We think we can at least slow it down.”

“When you get into next year and you look at 2018,” Toyota’s Jack Hollis said two years ago when discussing the arrival of an all-new Camry, “I believe with these three products and the excitement they bring back to that segment, I don’t see it falling anymore.” In fact, said Hollis, “When you have new entries and you have a full-year of those sales next year, I think you will see flat to slightly up.”

Meanwhile, Hyundai anticipated that a mere refresh of the Sonata for the 2018 model year would “reinvigorate” the nameplate.

The arrival of the 10th-generation Honda Accord did not slow down the shrinkage. Toyota was incorrect – the midsize segment was not “flat to slightly up” in 2018. And no, the Hyundai Sonata has in no way been reinvigorated.

The rate at which sales of midsize sedans are falling suggests fewer than 1 million of these vehicles will be sold in America within two years, equal to a 58-percent drop in just half a decade.

Everyone knew this was coming, but now it’s official. The current model year will be the Buick Cascada’s last.

Hitting dealer (and rental) lots in the U.S. at the dawn of 2016, the Opel-built drop top motivated its two-ton weight with a turbocharged 1.6-liter four-cylinder — an engine that gave away the model’s European heritage. With Opel no longer in the hands of General Motors, Americans stand to lose another model that, while perhaps not hugely desirable, is at least interesting and different.

Jaguar hopes U.S. buyers fling some woo its way this month, and it’s flinging bundles of cash at dealers to make it happen.

As the British brand is reportedly incentivizing its U.S. dealers to go above and beyond to break sales targets in the early part of 2018, savvy customers stand a good chance of finding a bargain.

No, it’s not a Fiat of any size or description — it’s the Alfa Romeo 4C. Specifically, a limited edition of an already scarce product, one that will only see 15 examples sent to the U.S. from the brand’s Modena, Italy factory.

Through this product intro, Fiat Chrysler revealed the 4C will linger on for the 2020 model year. While the 4C Spider Italia, priced five grand above a regular 4C Spider, doesn’t add a whole lot to the plate, it does give us an opportunity to look at Alfa’s sales health.

While North American conversations about the auto industry usually center around the public’s swing away from cars, Europe’s doing all sorts of of swinging these days. There’s a battle raging between cars and light trucks, sure, but also between propulsion types.

Once dominated by diesel, Europeans are shedding oil burners in favor of cars powered by gasoline and electricity. What’s hot these days? Not cars, but crossovers sure are. Jeep deserves recognition for its market share gains. And EVs? Buyers picked up 47 percent more of those last year.

No, not just because American buyers open their wallets for anyone hawking a high-riding vehicle; rather, because an influx of cash would help stabilize Honda’s balance sheet.

The automaker’s global profits took a 40 percent haircut in the fiscal quarter ending December 31, with net income falling 71 percent in the same time frame. North America wasn’t a fiscal fortress, either. While a new crossover that straddles segment boundaries isn’t the cure for all that ails Honda, it’s anything but hindrance.

The long slog that is January provided a mixed bag of sales results for America’s automakers, with some enjoying the fruits of their new products while others stared down the barrel of red ink as they tried to kick their fleet habit. Frightening and frigid weather patterns didn’t help anyone, either.

Talking heads are expecting this calendar year to be the first since 2014 in which total vehicle sales in America drop below 17 million units. While it seems a bit early to sound that alarm, it cannot be denied that some companies have already dug themselves a big hole.

Of all the automakers populating this vast land, none display quite same the level of guarded optimism for the passenger car’s future as Toyota. Two years ago, if you recall, it boldly declared that its new Camry might save the midsize sedan segment. Well, there’s now a new entry in the rose-colored glasses race.

Honda feels that public distrust in the ability of a four-door sedan to carry occupants to their intended destination has pretty much bottomed out.

Few automakers can boast of 85 consecutive months of yearly month-over-month growth, but that’s exactly what Subaru did as the calendar turned from 2018 to 2019. Still, despite the automaker’s impressive performance in the United States, not every model in Subaru’s lineup is a sales stud. There’s always a problem child or two.

As American buyers drain from the passenger car market, Subaru plans to make a pitch for the non-traditional traditional car, unveiling a next-generation 2020 Legacy at next week’s Chicago Auto Show. By the way, you should wish the Legacy a happy birthday today.

This May sees Toyota mark the 20th anniversary of the start of Tundra production. When that happy date arrives, there’s be two full generations of full-size truck memories to look back on. Yes, the Tundra is old, with the current generation bowing for the 2007 model year. A significant refresh came in 2014, with minor tweaks occuring ever since.

While testing a loaded 2018 crew cab variant a while back, this writer couldn’t help noticing the Tundra’s advancing age, despite the addition of new creature comforts and tech. The rig I piloted also weighed nearly 900 pounds more than a comparable Ford F-150.

Well, there’s good news for that uniquely loyal crop of Toyota truck owners. A new Tundra is on the way, but it won’t entirely break from the past. You’ll certainly recognize the cab.

Twenty-one years after Toyota replaced the alluring Previa with a new, more conventional people mover, the Sienna minivan finds itself falling out of favor among American buyers. SUVs and crossovers now provide virile consumers with a smorgasbord of front-and all-wheel drive, cargo-friendly alternatives, while competition from newer rivals serves to further erode the Sienna’s standing. What to do?

Nothing, at least for now. Much like the brand’s ancient Tundra pickup, Toyota’s Sienna, last redesigned for the 2011 model year, will soldier on relatively unchanged for another couple of years. Toyota isn’t worried.

Mitsubishi Motors burned up the newswires today in its haste to celebrate the opening of a new dealership in Cartersville, Georgia — which isn’t something you see every day. While hard to imagine for an OEM like Ford or GM, the press release fits with Mitsubishi’s short-term goal: a dealer network expansion in the U.S. and Canada, and greater dealer visibility.

We rag on Mitsubishi a lot; in many cases rightly so ( why do your driver’s seats wobble?), but the brand that courted death earlier this decade just wrapped up its best sales year since 2006. When you’re small, you celebrate the little things.