#Exports

Emboldened Tata has announced new plans to export their Nano. To markets such as Thailand, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. And Tata will do that carefully. “We will go after these markets one after another,” Tata CEO Carl-Peter Forster told Bloomberg at an industry event in Bochum, Germany. Gone are bravado and hype. No more mentions to export the $3,000 car to Europe or god forbid the U.S.A.

Speaking of exports, a Canadian columnist of the Saint City News made out an eager market, lusting for American cars, right in front of our noses. The writer found “a market of 11 million people who love GM products and paste Chevrolet bowtie logos on decrepit Ladas and Skodas.” However, the American government has denied that market the American dream, “year after year for more than half a century.” You know which market we are talking about. No? It’s some 100 miles from Key West. Right: Cuba.

So far, the feared Chinese car exports were nothing to write home about. Imports to China are outpacing exports from China by a wide margin. In units and especially in value. While China manages to sell a few cheap pickups to developing countries, it has become the #1 market for the (imported) Mercedes S Class. The German car industry in particular is running extra shifts to keep up with the Chinese appetite for German imports. One carmaker is determined to change that gross trade imbalance. Not Chery. Not Geely. It’s General Motors.

The idea behind the big car bailout supposedly was to keep millions of jobs in, well, North America. Ford didn’t partake, and hence should be free of moral obligations. ( Not that other companies on the government drip seem to be queasy about exporting jobs instead of cars.) Empowered by a clean conscience, Ford moves production to where it makes the most money. To India.

GM China has made good on its threat to sell Made in China GMs abroad. According to The Nikkei [sub], Shanghai General Motors Co. has begun exporting the Chevrolet New Sail from China to Chile. Some of the B&B opined that this is nothing new. However, the Nikkei says that “this is the first time a world-class automaker will export from China a model it developed in the country.” A few weeks ago, Terry Johnsson, Shanghai GM vice president of vehicle sales, service and marketing, said that this is “the first locally developed and manufactured passenger car from an international brand to be exported.”

Germany’s new car market continues to be anemic. In September, sales for the first nine months were down 27.5 percent. Official October data are expected later in the day, or tomorrow. Nobody expects sudden growth. (The whisper number is -20 percent.) Nevertheless, the German car industry runs extra shifts and out of cars.

Why?

Since I’ve been writing for TTAC, I have kept my eyes on exports from China, which according to popular wisdom, will take over the world. The truth about Chinese car exports is that they aren’t happening in the grand scheme of things. Keep that in mind when you will hear reports about skyrocketing Chinese exports.

The feared takeover of the world by Chinese cars so far was a non-starter. We’ve always said that cars built at Chinese joint ventures with Western (or Japanese) companies would be best suited to break that spell. But so far, the Western (or Japanese) joint venture partners wouldn’t play ball. Why invite a Chinese joint venture abroad where it competes in your markets? Now the first international brand will export a low-end car it developed for China to Latin America. For starters. Guess who?

Japanese automakers keep saying the ever appreciating yen will be their undoing. So their government intervened, sending the yen back to 85 to the dollar. Once the intervention stopped, the yen continued its march upwards. Today, the Japanese currency stood at 83.31 to the dollar. Which is losing strength across the world. The Europeans received $1.36 for their Euro today. A higher yen making Japanese cars more expensive should hurt Japanese car exports, don’t you think? Let’s see.

Everybody is afraid of China swamping the world with low cost cars, but it hasn’t happened. As a matter of fact, Chinese car exports are downright horrendous. In the first seven months of this year, China exported 288,900 units. China imports far more cars than it exports. For the next year, more than 1m of imports are expected. This doesn’t keep Chinese car manufacturers from trying their luck abroad.

Great Wall Motor plans to make a sales push into Europe, the US and Africa despite potential obstacles to market entry, said Shi Qingke, deputy general manager of Great Wall’s international department to The Global Times, the English version of People’s Daily.

PSA Peugeot, and their joint venture with China’s Dongfeng, are planning to export cars made in China to Russia, said Gregoire Olivier, Peugeot-Citroen’s recently appointed head of Asian operations, to The Beijing News via Gasgoo.

PSA wants to sell cars made at the Chinese JV in other regions of Asia and Russia as early as next year, said Olivier. The only thing that’s keeping them from doing it right now is the lack of a logistics platform. But they are building that in Shanghai as we speak, and it should be up and running next year.

Because Olivier was recently appointed, he may have missed various memos, and will be forgiven. Here a quick update:

India’s population is right up there with neighboring China. Only a few hundred million less, nobody really knows. In car sales, India dwarfs against China. In 2009, Indians bought 1.43m units, compared to 13.6m units bought by the Chinese. Nevertheless, the market is growing, the potential is huge, and sales are at a record high. Monthly car sales in India surged to an all-time high in August, climbing 33 percent to 160,794 cars. That according to data issued by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), and reported in The Nikkei [sub]. August sales outpaced July’s record of 158,674 cars.

“2010 could become the best year in the history of the automobile,” said Daimler’s Zetsche today, while Automobilwoche [sub] was furiously scribbling notes. “The best times of the car are in front of us.” Times are especially well for manufacturers for luxury cars. Had Dr. Z been drinking? Not necessarily.

Every day, German auto managers go on their knees and pray that the financial troubles in Greece, Spain and elsewhere continue. Why? The troubles keep the Euro low, and a low Euro is high octane fuel for German car exports. In May, German car exports rose 46 percent. For the first five months, German car exports are up 50 percent. Despite a lackluster home market, the German car industry is hitting on all cylinders: For the first five months, German production is up 26 percent to 2.3m units, driven mostly be strong demand from China and the U.S. However, red flags are going up. Literally.