By on December 3, 2020

The Japan Broadcasting Corporation, better known as NHK, reported that the island nation is considering banning new internal combustion engine cars by the mid-2030s this week. While we will continue to maintain that such an effort seems unrealistic when confronting the current realities of the market, Japan’s alleged plan offers a bit more leeway than proposals pitched in parts of Europe and North America. Nippon also finds itself in a better position in the preferred mixed approach of allowing mixed powertrains, which would allow the industry to continue production gasoline-driven hybrids.

For starters, the Asian country has a fairly comprehensive hydrogen fueling network thanks to its small size. It’s also in a position that would make nationwide EV charging more feasible than regions with plenty of wide-open spaces. But automakers aren’t making a peep on the issue, preferring to leave it up to regulators and the market.

Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (appointed in September) has already vowed to do what it takes to place the nation on a trajectory to cut emissions to net-zero by 2050. To adhere to that timeline, it would make sense to see heavy restrictions on automobiles manifest over the next few years. According to the NHK report, which was brought before our Western eyes thanks to Reuters, chief government spokesman Katsunobu Kato made an announcement on Thursday that Japan’s Ministry of Industry would plot a course for automobiles before 2021.

From Reuters:

The likelihood of state interventions to lower carbon emissions is fueling a technological race among automakers to build electric cars and hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles that will lure drivers as they switch from pure combustion models, particularly in the world’s two biggest auto markets, China and the U.S.

Measures already in place in Japan mean Japanese automakers, particularly big ones such as Toyota with greater research and development resources, could use electric-vehicle technology they have already developed at home.

Nissan COO Ashwani Gupta last month told Reuters his company was ready to respond to Britain’s decision to hasten a phase-out date for new gasoline and diesel-powered cars and vans by five years to 2030 because it was part of a global trend.

That trend? The increasingly ominous “Great Reset” penned by the World Economic Forum. We’ve mentioned it before because it’s one of the most ambitious financial and energy initiatives ever imagined by a hegemony of big tech firms, media conglomerates, pharmaceuticals corporations, automotive giants, financial concerns, the biotech sector, green tech agencies, Amazon, Google, and a slew of other companies that make you wince a little whenever you hear their name. Once thought of as a ludicrous conspiracy held by disenfranchised wingnuts, the Great Reset is now openly endorsed by world leaders and posited as the only way to save the environment. It even has its very own website.

Boiled down, the plan is to digitize/electrify everything by 2030 and ensure economies are restructured so that regular people no longer own anything. While we’re dubious that the working class would tolerate giving up their ownership rights for the presumed health of the planet in a decade’s time (nor are we particularly interested in endorsing such a plan), the global electrification effort seems to be going ahead at full steam.

Japan expects to craft a series of expert panels and run several debates later this month to see what can be done in regard to the automotive sector. It’s assumed it’ll have formal emission targets announced shortly thereafter. China and South Korea have already set stringent emissions goals of their own, though nobody reading this should realistically expect the former nation to adhere to them.

[Image: CAPTAINHOOK/Shutterstock]

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91 Comments on “Report: Japan May Ban Internal Combustion Vehicles Next Decade...”


  • avatar
    EBFlex

    You gotta love these brain dead politicians who will literally say such garbage such as this.

    Especially in Japan where their history with electricity generation (specifically nuclear) is not exactly stellar.

    The only way for these rather garbage electric cars will be viable is if the range is equal to ICE vehicles, the refueling times are equal to proper ICE vehicles, and we build a TON more power plants (which means nuclear).

    • 0 avatar
      ect

      It means renewables, not nuclear. A Bloomberg study published in 2018 found that renewable generation was already less expensive than fossil fuel generation in 49 of the 50 countries it studied (Japan was the only exception, for reasons I don’t recall). And of course, technology continues to drive down the cost of renewables generation.

      In the US, renewables accounted for more than 50% of all generation capacity added in 2019, rising to 75% in 2020.

      Globally, renewables also account for a majority of new generation capacity, and have for a few years now.

      • 0 avatar
        rpn453

        The problem with wind and solar renewables is that it can’t replace base load generation. It sounds cheap when you look at the full power capacity of those installations, but many are rarely at peak output. For a reliable grid, you still need the same base load hydro, nuclear, or fossil fuel generation when the sun’s not shining and the wind isn’t blowing. So the renewables can be practically worthless because the costs of operating the background base load generation facilities are pretty much the same, with the construction and maintenance of the renewables being an additional expense on top of that. They often have to give away or even pay others to take the excess solar and wind power when it’s peaking. That’s why many places that are taking the base load generation offline are seeing higher energy prices and/or less reliable operation, with a lot of power importation. It would be the opposite if those renewables were truly cheaper; energy prices would be trending down anywhere that implements them.

        But that doesn’t mean electric cars don’t make sense for a lot of people. I would think Japan would be an ideal place for full-scale adoption of electric vehicles, given its small land mass, moderate climate, and lack of domestic fossil fuels. With enough electric cars hooked up to the grid, maybe the batteries can be used as storage for an intermittent domestic energy supply.

        • 0 avatar
          ect

          One of the mantras I teach my clients is “never bet against technology”. Another is that “the immediate past is not the indefinite future”.

          I’m not an engineer, and don’t pretend to be. But when I see utilities around the world building renewable capacity in preference to fossil fuel and nuclear plants, something is indeed afoot.

          Thanks to technology, the cost of renewables is on a steady downward curve, which is not the case for fossil or nuclear.

          Renewables do require storage capacity, of course, which is rapidly declining in cost. New battery technologies are in different stages of development, and will at some point (I’m not qualified to say whether that’s near or far) make large-scale storage much more economical than at present.

          • 0 avatar
            rpn453

            I worked as a mechanical engineer at a coal power plant for my local utility for a few years and our implementation of modern renewable energy – wind turbines – was nothing but greenwashing. There was no economic basis for building it. ROI was 25 years, if all goes well. We’d never do anything else with an ROI over 7. Coal and hydro were almost free to produce; like 2 or 3 cents per kW-hr. That was 15 years ago, but nothing tangible has really changed with respect to coal; just the prospect of increasing carbon taxes.

            We had a coal power plant planned (sister twin to one already there) that never got started. Since then, China has built the equivalent of more than 100 of those plants every year and plans to continue doing so until at least 2030.

            I don’t mind leaving our fossil fuel resources in the ground if we can, but I’m not sure that’s what’s happening. We’re increasing the use of natural gas, since it’s somehow more politically correct and you can throw gas turbine generators up for relatively little cost. I see natural gas as a far more valuable and finite resource than the hundreds of years of cheap coal we have available, and I think it’s shameful to burn it for base load power generation. Hopefully it’s mostly still for peak use, but that wasn’t the way things were trending when I was there.

            From what I’ve heard, right now, installing battery storage is about 100 times the cost of building even a new nuclear power plant of equivalent daily output. Coal is much cheaper than nuclear.

            I think renewable energy is economically feasible in certain situations, but it seems like it’s mostly being forced into situations where it’s not. If there are locations that have decreased their electrical costs due to the implementation of renewable energy (apart from large-scale hydro), I’d be interested in hearing about it. I might just be out of touch.

        • 0 avatar
          ect

          BTW, I agree with you that Japan is ripe for EVs, not least because of short driving distances.

    • 0 avatar
      aquaticko

      Boy, it’s hard to pick a starting point with your post.

      A. Japan’s nuclear problem was a natural event. Plant trying to operate design basis? How could it not fail? You can argue against TEPCO’s handling of said potentiality and eventuality, but that’s a different question.

      B. Japan is arguably the BEST country for this type of move. It’s far and away the easiest developed country to get around without a car. Almost everything’s built around bikes, pedestrians, and trains.

      C. EV range is already equal to ICEs in a lot of cases, and their recharging times potentially are, too (assuming you use 800V charging).

    • 0 avatar
      RHD

      Refueling can be quicker than filling up with gas – just have removeable batteries. Pay ten bucks, switch out ten battery packs (they slide right out and you pop in the new one), and you’re on your way. The old ones get recharged on site, and when they’re at 100%, they get put into someone else’s car.
      All cars use the same battery cartridges. They can be recharged at night, when the rates are low.
      A small percentage of the refill cost goes to replacing the packs once they are below a certain cutoff point. You could carry extra ones in your trunk for trips out to the boonies.
      Problem solved.
      You’re welcome.

      • 0 avatar
        mcs

        @RHD: The problem with replaceable packs is that they are going to add a lot of weight to the car. The latest design methodology for EVs is to reduce weight by making the cells part of the vehicle structure eliminating the extra weight of a case.

        My method for longer charges has been to do it when I’m doing something else. About 99% of the time, charging is while you sleep. Other times I either get something to eat, catch up on email, or shop. Properly managed, life with an EV is much easier than with an ICE. Once you get used to charging at home, dealing with gas stops becomes really annoying.

        When it comes to long distance trips, you might have to charge along the way. Lets say for example you have to charge every 250 miles. Lt’s say that’s maybe a 30 to 45 minute stop versus 15 minutes with an ICE. Maybe 30 minutes longer. Is it really so bad to take an extra 30 minute break on 7 hour trip? Catch up on email after 3 hours or take your time eating? To me, it’s worth it to have all of the performance benefits of an EV. They’re the equivilent of a V8 or V12 in your car. Smooth and quiet with loads of torque.

        Newer battery tech is reducing charge times and their are other techniques that aren’t being used yet. On my designs, I’m splitting battery packs electrically and using multiple chargers in parallel. You could do it with a full size EV. In fact, the Taycan has two ports and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Porsche implement this. We’re also starting to see more 350kW chargers vs. the old days where some of us where stuck with 50kW charging.

        • 0 avatar
          ajla

          “Is it really so bad to take an extra 30 minute break on 7 hour trip?”

          It’s not optimal for several reasons. However, I think the biggest issue isn’t the extra 30 minutes it is the plug location and availability.

          • 0 avatar
            jack4x

            “Is it really so bad to take an extra 30 minute break on 7 hour trip? To me, it’s worth it to have all of the performance benefits of an EV. They’re the equivalent of a V8 or V12 in your car.”

            I mean, you can still buy a V8 or V12 powered vehicle that doesn’t come with the downside of the 30+ minute stops every 3-4 hours. It’s not as if the choice is EV or turbo 4 (yet).

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            Why the furor over having to stop for breaks?

            In the USA commercial truckers are legally mandated to have a 30 minute break within the first 8 hours of driving.

            The only way I can go 7-8 hours without a stop is if I drive at 60 mph to save on fuel and am dehydrated or pigged out on potato chips the night before!

          • 0 avatar
            jack4x

            It’s not the idea of stopping that’s the problem for me, it’s the length of stop and inconvenience of charger locations.

            When I’m traveling with my small kids, it’s a absolute non-starter to spend 30+ minutes in a freezing cold parking lot while the car charges. Nor is it much better to have them running around inside a gas station or a restaurant or wherever else the charger might be located.

            Our stops are 5 minute affairs; I pump the gas while Mom takes the kids to use the bathroom/change diapers and we are back on the road right away. Meals are either packed ahead of time or picked up at a drive thru. Adding multiple stops of a half hour or more every trip is simply not something I’m willing to do.

          • 0 avatar
            mcs

            “30+ minutes in a freezing cold parking lot while the car charges.”

            Why is that a problem? You can run the heat while it charges. On long trips, my kids were too busy playing electronic games to care. You can also run movies for them. You don’t have to stay with the car either. You can go in and have a meal.

          • 0 avatar
            mcs

            “I mean, you can still buy a V8 or V12 powered vehicle that doesn’t come with the downside of the 30+ minute stops every 3-4 hours.”

            You’ve never owned a V-12. At 10 to 12 mpg average you wish you could go without stopping for 3 hours. Then the 15 minute stop easily becomes 30 because of the attention. Oh, and eventually you’ll have a stop that takes way more than 30 minutes as you wait for a flatbed.

            “I think the biggest issue isn’t the extra 30 minutes it is the plug location and availability.”

            I’ve never had a problem. You have an app to find them, You plan the trip out. Where I am, there are so many locations you can definitely cherry pick where to stop. Six years ago when I first added an EV to the fleet, it was a bit tighter, but I never got stranded. Now it’s crazy. Plenty of spots here in the northeast. I realiize not are areas of the country as a good as on the coasts, I think there are areas of the southwest that still have issues.

          • 0 avatar
            ajla

            “You have an app to find them”

            I’m sure my grandmother will figure that out. I don’t think charging stations need to be as ubiquitous as gas stations, but “use the app” is not going to work either.

            Where we are putting EV charges right now also seems inefficient. They are being placed at retail stores and banks and court houses, but the people going to those places are likely local and most will have access to at-home or close-to-home charging. Having to trundle down to some out-of-state Wal-Mart during a road trip is a hassle, start installing them closer to interstates.

          • 0 avatar
            jack4x

            “On long trips, my kids were too busy playing electronic games to care. You can also run movies for them. You don’t have to stay with the car either. You can go in and have a meal.”

            I’m honestly glad this works for you. It doesn’t for me. When we take a long trip, the goal is to get there as quickly as possible, not spend extra time, eating a meal or otherwise. A 500 mile trip at Christmas time in the Midwest is likely going to add an hour of charging time at minimum.

            “You’ve never owned a V-12. At 10 to 12 mpg average you wish you could go without stopping for 3 hours. Then the 15 minute stop easily becomes 30 because of the attention. Oh, and eventually you’ll have a stop that takes way more than 30 minutes as you wait for a flatbed.”

            You’re right. I’ve never owned a V12. I do own a V10 powered sports car that doesn’t suffer from any of the issues you mention, other than attention at a gas station that can be dismissed or acknowledged in 30 seconds. I have 3 V8 powered vehicles that don’t suffer from those issues either.

            I’ll consider an EV when it can either go 500 miles in 0 degree weather without a recharge, or add hundreds of miles of range in 5 minutes as I can go with my gas cars now. Otherwise the tradeoffs in convenience and driving excitement are not worth it to me.

        • 0 avatar
          el scotto

          Since I’ve always existed on the fringe edges of the B&B; I’ll make a deep dark confession. I stop to urinate on long distance drives. Oh and it gets much worse, I’ll check my voicemail and email while I’m stopped. To compound my acts of apostasy I’ll stop for White Castles, Steak and Shake, or Skyline Chili heading back to the Midwest. That’s on I-70. Heading south on I-95, Huddle House is a stop. These epicurean establishments don’t exist in the Metro DC area.

    • 0 avatar

      Japan has a few reasons it would work. First, amazing mass transit. Second, there is little street parking as we know it. You have to own or have a year lease on a parking space to register your car. This solves the US charger problem incidentially. Third, Japan isnt all that big and you don’t have the oil rigger with a 450 mile commute in the Dakotas. In Japan it could work.

    • 0 avatar
      Lorenzo

      Relax. The timeline is long past the politicians’ term of office, nd for some of them, their lifespan. The announcement is to mollify a portion of the electorate. Fifteen years from now is a long time, and things will change in the interval.

  • avatar
    tylanner

    In an odd juxtaposition, my pet dog sitting next to me here doesn’t have a care in the world about transportation emissions….but thankfully, the best and brightest among us are regaining global consciousness and our daily drivers are directly in their crosshairs.

  • avatar
    dwford

    Instead of unrealistic bans, the government just needs to develop the next wave of fuel economy rules. Then let the market figure it out. We are already seeing things like the Toyota Sienna go hybrid only, and I am sure we will see more of that. There is more to it than just CO2 emissions. There’s the environmental issues with mining the materials for the batteries, as well as the disposal of the spent batteries down the line. We still haven’t solved the nuclear waste problem from the power plants, and that’s been over 50 years!

  • avatar
    Whatnext

    “..Once thought of as a ludicrous conspiracy held by disenfranchised wingnuts, the Great Reset is now openly endorsed by world leaders and posited as the only way to save the environment. It even has its very own website.

    Boiled down, the plan is to digitize/electrify everything by 2030 and ensure economies are restructured so that regular people no longer own anything…”

    Correction: it is still a ludicrous conspiracy cherished by wingnuts.

    Sad to see TTAC go down this path. Hasta la vista. Hopefully the site owners will track the decline in traffic.

    • 0 avatar
      jack4x

      Yeah the tone of this article was frankly ridiculous.

      I’m as opposed to EVs as one can get. I think the pace of their “takeover” is wildly overstated. I also think talk of ICE bans is so much hot air. The idea that private ownership of anything will be limited is ludicrous. Take off the tin foil hat and join the real world.

    • 0 avatar
      Matt Posky

      “Correction: it is still a ludicrous conspiracy cherished by wingnuts.”

      While I don’t think the EV takeover will be quite so impressive as politicians and the auto industry likes to claim, nor that the Great Reset will be nearly successful as hoped (people like owning things), the entire plan is literally linked to in the article. You can go read about it yourself or you can double down on your own ignorance.

      It’s just a popular economic/environmental movement driving policies, not some impossible to avoid scheme being enacted by people who meet in black robes on the full moon.

      • 0 avatar
        jack4x

        Anyone can write down a utopian sounding plan and discuss it ad nauseum at expensive seminars.

        NGOs and world organizations have literally been advocating for some of the stuff in that “plan” for decades. Meanwhile, a party that denies that climate change even exists has the inside path to controlling the Senate for the foreseeable future and has 2/3 of the Supreme Court.

        You’ll pardon me if I’m not exactly shaking with fear that I won’t be able to buy a privately owned gas powered car 10 or even 50 years from now.

        • 0 avatar
          ajla

          So you don’t think over the next 50 years the US will ban the sale of new ICE vehicles?
          I’m also not referring to EVs taking over the market (semi)-naturally or you buying an old 2021 Corvette as a hobby piece in retirement.

          • 0 avatar
            jack4x

            “So you don’t think over the next 50 years the US will ban the sale of new ICE vehicles?”

            No, I don’t believe they will.

            This country can’t muster the political will to pass background checks with 90% appeal even after children are murdered. We can’t get around to banning cigarettes. We cannot nationally mandate something as simple, costless, and effective as a piece of cloth over one’s face in public. Our system is incentivized to accomplish nothing.

            Whatever anyone’s personal thoughts on the matter, the words “Green New Deal” and anything related to its contents have become politically toxic to a coalition whose voters hold disproportionate political power and who will control the Supreme Court for decades to come. Even if a supermajority of voters supported such a policy, it’s unlikely they would be able to pass it in the foreseeable political alignment.

            I expect to be able to buy new gas powered cars for the rest of my life.

      • 0 avatar
        28-Cars-Later

        We also meet on the solstices.

    • 0 avatar
      Old_WRX

      Whatnext,

      “Correction: it is still a ludicrous conspiracy cherished by wingnuts.”

      Weirdo crazies like the World Economic Forum. All of you who are in denial of what is so painfully obviously happening in front our faces — you’re doing just great.

      Why do you think the media are using childish taunts like “conspiracy theory” all the time? It couldn’t be a cheap, cheesy, childish way of discrediting anyone saying something that — oh, gasp! — disagrees with the official edicts.

      The state I live in has started “Part Deux” of the plandemic, as promised. We’re all grounded and no TV for a week.

  • avatar
    dwford

    “Boiled down, the plan is to digitize/electrify everything by 2030 and ensure economies are restructured so that regular people no longer own anything”

    Isn’t it funny that the same people asking you “why would you want to own when it’s so much easier to rent?” are the same people that DO want to own everything.

    • 0 avatar
      Old_WRX

      dwford,

      “Isn’t it funny that the same people asking you “why would you want to own when it’s so much easier to rent?” are the same people that DO want to own everything.”

      It’s twisted, yes. Funny — not in the least.

      It always amazes me how much trouble and misery such a tiny fraction of the population causes.

  • avatar
    Scott_314

    Politician: if you want 100% EV in 2030, fine. But that means 10% EV in 2021 and 20% EV in 2022.

    So put a $100,000 tax on ICE powered cars after the 90% limit is reached, starting next year. That would actually work. But do you have the guts to do this, or are you just making empty promises?

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      “So put a $100,000 tax on ICE powered cars”

      Within the US, and considering SCOTUS cases in last 25 years, that would probably violate the 8th amendment. It would also require being passed by the legislature and most of the push for these bans seem to be coming from executive branch offices.

    • 0 avatar
      jkross22

      Yeah, taxes on everything I don’t like. Because government and good intentions never have any consequences.

  • avatar
    DC Bruce

    What seems to be going on is a conflagration of high-minded politicians and supposed experts who have come up with yet another plan to save humanity from itself.

    All well and good until the implementation begins and the proles wake up to its real-world implications for them.

  • avatar
    brn

    If I’m reading right, a 2014 eAssist Chevy Impala would qualify.

    GM, I’m smelling an opportunity in Japan!

  • avatar
    Old_WRX

    Interesting how the year they keep picking for these things is 2030. Here’s a video from the World Economic Forum that tells us that by 2030 we will own nothing, “And, you’ll be happy.”

    Anything you want you will rent and it will be delivered by drones. (This isn’t a slur on USPS, UPS and FedEx delivery people. They’re talking about those creepy little helicopter doohickeys.)

  • avatar

    Alleluia! Rejoice people! Changes I was promoting all these years are finally taking the world by storm!

    Now we have to find a way to implant computer chips into consumers brains on global scale so they can directly interact with their cars at a thought level. As an added bonus it will also allow us to collect some valuable consumer data and track consumers movement. And will also allow control of world population growth and reduce greenhouse gas emission. Some people just breath too much – we have to fix that.

    The only thing is how to implant chips without customers consent. But I think I have some ideas.

    • 0 avatar
      Old_WRX

      ILO,

      “The only thing is how to implant chips without customers consent. But I think I have some ideas.”

      Why would anyone not want the chip? It would help them get more personalized advertisement beamed directly into their brains.

      And, if that’s not good enough for them then there’s always the one from the Godfather: “Make him an offer he can’t refuse.” I mean it’s for the benefit of us all, right?

    • 0 avatar
      Lou_BC

      “Now we have to find a way to implant computer chips into consumers brains on global scale so they can directly interact with their cars at a thought level.”

      Welllll…….. if you consider how brainless many drivers currently are, that isn’t a good idea ;)

  • avatar
    ToolGuy

    “so that regular people no longer own anything”

    Stayed home on Black Friday and bought myself a set of diamond tip screwdrivers (more grip). Do I get to keep them?

  • avatar

    Do you have a license to own screwdrivers? They are dangerous weapons, you know. If not – then you are in a big, big trouble, at least here in California.

    • 0 avatar
      ToolGuy

      My new set is not equipped with Bluetooth or GPS positioning and cannot receive over-the-air updates from the manufacturer. No alarm goes off if I bring the #1 Phillips close to my eye socket. (This all makes me very nervous.)

      At some point I will very likely use these to disassemble some piece of equipment which has no user-serviceable parts inside. (This might make someone else nervous.)

      [Sadly, my December trip to Los Angeles (booked in July when things looked more promising) is cancelled. Apparently Democrats don’t do a whole lot better than Trump when it comes to pandemic management?]

  • avatar
    ToolGuy

    Back on topic – if a plan like this is going to work, it will work better in Japan than in many other places:

    a) Average vehicle age in Japan is significantly lower than U.S.

    b) Does Japan still do door-to-door sales? Showing up at your door with an EV is going to be an easier sell than a U.S. dealer trying to remember where in the back lot they stashed the one EV they have which is a strange color and they forgot to charge it so you can’t drive it right now and hey, wouldn’t you rather have an ICE?

    c) When your neighbor in Japan is driving an EV and your neighbor on the other side is test-driving one and it’s only 6 months until your next vehicle purchase, you’re going to feel the peer pressure. (Tipping point will come sooner.)

    d) To overgeneralize, Japanese enjoy following the rules (while [some] Americans are singing “don’t fence me in.”)

    • 0 avatar
      aquaticko

      Some Americans are even trying to sing it through their ventilators…for a little while, at least.

      • 0 avatar
        ToolGuy

        Too soon. :-)

      • 0 avatar
        Lou_BC

        @aquaticko – I know you were being sarcastic so I’ll add some brutal reality to that. When one is on a ventilator they are intubated i.e. endotracheal or tracheostomy tube is in place. The endotracheal tube or tracheostomy tube passes through your vocal chords. Air bypasses the larynx. No air to vibrate the voice box. Oh and to sing or talk, you need control of your breathing. Kinda hard to do when one’s lungs are thick and inelastic from COVID-19 induced Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome! Sedation so you don’t fight the ventilator and ET tube means you don’t have the mental function either.

        • 0 avatar
          jkross22

          Life as a respiratory therapist wasn’t supposed to be like this. I feel terrible for RT’s – absolutely on the front lines in a way that’s invisible to nearly all of us.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            There are times where I miss working ICU or as a Paramedic. Over the past year I haven’t. I do have a deep concern for my friends and former colleagues.

      • 0 avatar
        28-Cars-Later

        They should trying singing it in Mandarin.

        No matter whodunit, the PRC knew what is was dealing with and allowed it to escape.

  • avatar
    Jeff S

    So my 2012 Buick Lacrosse E-Assist would qualify? This is far enough in the future for me not to be that concerned. I doubt I will be buying a new vehicle in 15 years or more and if I need another vehicle I can always buy used.

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      “So my 2012 Buick Lacrosse E-Assist would qualify?”

      If you live in China then yes. If you live in Japan then maybe. If you live in California, the UK, or parts of Canada then no. Although used cars seem to be exempt from nearly all the rules I’ve read.

  • avatar
    indi500fan

    I’m hoping all these plans work out. Oil will be in huge over supply and gasoline will be cheap if it’s not hit with insane taxes.

    However the air may be a bit fouled from those hundreds of coal fired power plans the Chinese are building to provide enough juice for all these e-cars.

    • 0 avatar
      28-Cars-Later

      “Oil will be in huge over supply and gasoline will be cheap if it’s not hit with insane taxes.”

      Don’t count on it.

      “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever.”

      Orwell, 1984

      “However the air may be a bit fouled from those hundreds of coal fired power plans the Chinese are building to provide enough juice for all these e-cars.”

      PRC has been pursing a nuclear strategy since the late 00s.

      https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx

      • 0 avatar
        Old_WRX

        “The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power….Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.”

        -Orwell, 1984

      • 0 avatar
        ToolGuy

        @28-Cars-Later, thank you for that link.

        The two pie charts at the top of this link give a good overall perspective:
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China

        Interesting take here (ignore the editorializing) – apparently the central planners overshot on coal plants, many of which aren’t used:
        https://tinyurl.com/tg97sf6

        “In addition to roughly 1,000 gigawatts of existing coal capacity, China has 121 gigawatts of coal plants under construction, which is more than is being built in the rest of the world combined. But here’s the weird thing—more than half the time, China’s coal plants are just sitting around collecting dust. If China already has more coal power than it needs, why does it keep building new plants? The answer…”

        • 0 avatar
          28-Cars-Later

          You are quite welcome. That is very interesting about the coal plants, but assuming they were completed and added to the grid the country has quite a bit of slack capacity. They probably could absorb a fair amount of EV demand if needed.

        • 0 avatar
          Old_WRX

          ToolGuy,

          “If China already has more coal power than it needs, why does it keep building new plants?”

          The usual reason is that someone makes money off the building of coal fired plants. Some might call that corruption. If that is the case, I’m glad to see that they get to enjoy the fruits of crooked pols and unscrupulous businesses. Theft in its many forms — truly the oldest occupation.

    • 0 avatar
      Lou_BC

      “hundreds of coal fired power plans(sic)”

      it has already been shown that using fossil fuels to produce electricity to run electric cars is still “cleaner” than a country full of ICE vehicles.

      Best case scenario is no fossil fuel use.

      If one looks at this cynically, any country with a large military and has an eye on global superiority requires putting the public in electric vehicles. The military is a massive consumer of fuel.

      Case in point: “In World War II, the average fuel consumption per soldier or Marine was about 1.67 gallons a day; in Iraq, it’s 27.3 gallons. The Defense Department is the nation’s single largest user of energy, at 1.6 million gallons a day in Iraq.” http://priceofoil.org/2008/04/03/iraq-war-fuel-costs-soar/

      • 0 avatar
        ajla

        “it has already been shown that using fossil fuels to produce electricity to run electric cars is still “cleaner” than a country full of ICE vehicles.”

        Who has shown that? Especially if the “ICE vehicles” in question are conventional hybrids and the fossil fuel in question is *Coal*?

        • 0 avatar
          Lou_BC

          “Under current conditions, driving an electric car is better for the climate than conventional petrol cars in 95% of the world, the study finds.”
          That was in Forbes which sits neutral in political system with no bias in either direction.

          • 0 avatar
            28-Cars-Later

            Perusing the study would be helpful in this case, but personally I see it being far more likely Forbes simply towing the line it was told too. All of this was planned long ago and they are slowly rolling out an insane agenda aimed at re- feudalization which perhaps is being driven in part by Peak Oil. EV for me, nothing for thee.

          • 0 avatar
            ajla

            “Conventional petrol cars” doesn’t mean hybrids and “under current conditions” doesn’t mean expanding coal.

            It even specifically calls out Poland as an example of a place where EVs are *not* more efficient because it is still reliant on coal. The study’s conclusion is heavily based on “conventional petrol” not improving while electricity generation emissions continue falling. Opening coal plants to power EVs is not the way to go/

            Anyway, no country should be banning hybrids.

          • 0 avatar
            28-Cars-Later

            “no country should be banning hybrids”

            How about, don’t ban anything?

          • 0 avatar
            Matt Posky

            “How about, don’t ban anything?”

            This seems like an incredible idea. How is it that nobody seems to be trying it?

          • 0 avatar
            ajla

            I’m anti-ban, but banning something like a TRX at least makes philosophical sense. Banning hybrids (especially Prius-style hybrids) as a part of climate legislation is like banning fruits & tree nuts as part of public health legislation.

      • 0 avatar
        28-Cars-Later

        I’ve heard that statistic before, I would posit a much smaller number of troops with helicopters and jet aircraft types which did not exist in WWII.

      • 0 avatar
        28-Cars-Later

        “Best case scenario is no fossil fuel use”

        Sure if we lose 80% of humanity this might be possible. Maybe we’ll see some of that in the coming years, Malthus has only been proven wrong to the point.

        https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-malthus-predicted-1798-food-shortages/

        https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292120301094

        https://medium.com/@globalcooling/solar-researchers-try-to-warn-about-global-food-shortages-83af109cac37

        • 0 avatar
          Lou_BC

          “Sure if we lose 80% of humanity this might be possible.”

          The irony is that COVID-19 is a bigger problem in developed countries due to longer lifespans and diseases of affluence i.e. (obesity/diabetes/hypertension/heart/renal disease, smoking/lung/heart/renal disease)

    • 0 avatar
      Old_WRX

      28-Cars-Later,

      “Almost as if it was… designed for it.”

      Yessss…assuming Covid really exists at all. (This comment is NOT meant to deny that people do get sick. Nor is it meant in any way so suggest that I’m in favor of people getting sick or dying. I’m just more than a bit skeptical about the whole Covid narrative.)

      • 0 avatar
        Lou_BC

        @Old_WRX – I’ve talked to a few people who have had family or friends die of the disease. I have colleagues who still work ICU, ER, and Paramedic services. It’s out there. It exists. Fortunately I’ve seen more negative COVID-19 screens than positive ones but that’s rapidly changing.

  • avatar
    28-Cars-Later

    Sounds like the fix is in!

  • avatar
    SCE to AUX

    Hydrogen is a fool’s errand.

    It’s very expensive, very inefficient, very complex, very cold, very scarce to buy, hard to meter, and fairly dangerous at 10,000 psi.

    But, but… we’ll have all the issues worked out by 2030.

    In contrast: electricity is everywhere, it’s cheap, and easily managed.

    • 0 avatar
      28-Cars-Later

      “hard to meter”

      Exactly. Will somebody please think of J.P. Morgan for once?

      http://www.teslasociety.com/biography.htm

      • 0 avatar
        ToolGuy

        I thought of J.P. Morgan and his banker friends several months ago on a road trip when I attempted to purchase fuel at the pump with my debit card. Official Policy: I now need to get permission ahead of time from the Bank of Italy [Federal Charter 13044] when leaving my home state; otherwise they will de-activate my card. (I asked if they are planning to give me a nightly curfew as well; no clear answer.)

        This meant I got to go into the gas station for some good first-person pandemic interaction. Yay.

        Just one of many reasons why I am very rarely able to refuel my ICE vehicle in “5 minutes” (haven’t given up yet).

  • avatar
    Jeff S

    The mid 30s is still years away for most of us to be concerned about and in most of the US with the exception of California and the larger states it will be years later before most of us are directly affected by mandates eliminating ICE. Many will have bought several ICE vehicles in the meantime. I am more worried about COVID-19 than what I might drive in another 15 years or more. If I am still driving I might actually want an EV especially if charging becomes more available and the price of EVs becomes more competitive.

  • avatar
    namesakeone

    I assume that wouldn’t include vehicles for export; alternatively, the major Japan manufacturers would probably put the plants manufacturing fossil fuel-powered vehicles in the third-world countries where labor is so much cheaper and emissions regulations are so much lower.

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