U.S. Auto Sales, July 2018: Plenty of Red … Unless You're Fiat Chrysler

Major manufacturers saw their fortunes take a dip in July, with red ink spilling across the page like an airport departures board during a snowstorm.

More than ever, sales performance seems tied to the number of crossovers and SUVs available at a given OEM. Sedan heavy marques are taking a beating. Even Ford’s strong selling truck line could not drag the company’s results into the black, thanks to a tanking of sedan sales.

Are customers shying away from Ford cars because the Blue Oval has announced their impending demise? Logical or not, it is indeed possible that folks do not want to drive a nameplate they know won’t be around in the coming years, fearing a loss of resale value and potential hassle when it’s time to service the thing.

Versus July 2017, Ford’s car business is off a staggering 27.7 percent. Trucks are up 10.2 percent. Total fleet sales out of the Glass House equalled 26.4 percent of volume and there’s a 90 day supply of cars on the ground. I’ll leave those numbers in your hands for comment.

While it is true that FCA saw a 5.8 percent month-over-month increase and is up 4.6 percent so far this year, a close examination of the numbers reveal that it is the Jeep brand that is carrying the weight in Auburn Hills. All by itself, the Jeep brand is up a stunning 21 percent year-to-date, shifting very nearly 100,000 more vehicles than they did in the first seven months of 2017.

The entire FCA empire is up 56,337 units during the same time frame. The Wrangler itself is up 37,180, keeping in mind Wrangler sales currently comprise those of the old JK and the snazzy new JL, at least until dealers run out of the old model.

Toyota registered a six percent drop in monthly sales volume but are up about a percent-and-a-half to date in 2018, having sold nearly 1.4 million vehicles. Nissan is off by double digits both in July and on the year, while Honda and Mazda also fell into a fugue last month.

Other trends worth noting include Kia outselling its big brother, Hyundai, by a couple of thousand units in July. The Genesis brand sold a total of 615 cars last month. Total industry numbers remain an estimate, thanks to General Motors moving to a quarterly report.

Beyond raw sales numbers, J.D. Power said the average retail transaction price last month was tracking towards $31,561 – a new high. Average incentives are said to have risen to $3,754, with an average APR of 5.74 percent. That’s nearly a full percentage point higher than this time last year, by the way. This, combined with transaction prices heading northward, points to a customer base seeking ever-longer finance terms, girding their loins for 84- or 96-month loans.

There was one less selling day – a total of twenty four – compared to July 2017 and, thanks to a calendar quirk, one less weekend. Both of those metrics generally contribute to lower numbers, especially the latter. Seasonally adjusted, talking heads are estimating this year’s total sales to come in somewhere around the 16.7 million mark.

[Image: Fiat Chrysler]