By on December 18, 2015

RM-NYC-2015-1955-Mercedes-Benz-300SL-Sportabteilung-Gullwing-15

During the last week, much has been written about the “Driven By Disruption” auction Dec. 10 by RM Auction/Sotheby’s.

Most of that reporting was about Janis Joplin’s Porsche, which sold for a mildly outrageous sum of $1.6 million (plus fees), which beat the estimate about 2.5 times. Other top-dollar cars were mentioned as well, especially the first Aston Martin DB4GT Zagato sold in almost a decade, or the Ferrari 290 MM that was driven by the famous Juan Manuel Fangio in the Mille Miglia. Both cars brought even more eye-watering amounts of money – $13 million for the Aston, $25.5 million for the Ferrari. The Aston even set a historical record for the most expensive British car ever sold at auction.

The message is clear: The collector car market is not only alive and well, it’s thriving. Cars sell for ever-higher sums and they are a marvelous investment value. After all, they aren’t making any more classic Ferraris and Astons, are they? So the value can only go up, right?

As you probably guessed, my opinion on the matter is different.

For quite some time, the price of collector cars have skyrocketed 400 percent, and I’ve seen articles in mainstream media commenting about the great investment those cars present. But I simply don’t believe that a 1950s Porsche 356 Speedster or some old Ferrari or Jag is several times more valuable than it was three years ago — or ten years ago, for that matter.

What I see when I look at the hockey stick graphs at the Hagerty’s valuation tools is an investment bubble. Which leaves a simple question: when is it going to burst?

Watching the auction gave me some pointers. Originally, I only wanted to watch the Janis Porsche to see the price, and go to sleep or work after that. But I noticed something interesting, something that none of the recent reports about the auction mentioned: Almost none of the cars brought the estimated price.

When I turned the video stream on, a really nice Ferrari Daytona was on the block. Its estimated value was between $800,000 and $1 million, but its final bid was $770,000. Not too shabby, to be honest. Then, one of the best Lamborghini Miuras in the world, restored under the supervision of none other than Valentino Balboni. Its estimated value was between $2.4 million to $2.8 million. Final bid? $2.2 million, which is still nice. Then, Bugatti 57C Atalante — a rare and collectible vehicle for several decades. Under $2 million, at least $250,000 short of the low estimate.

Then, 1991 Ferrari Testarossa: late-production model, first owner, perfectly serviced and almost never driven, which made it likely one of the finest examples in the world. And the 1980s are in vogue now, so Testarossas should be all the rage — or so we are told. Its estimate was $400,000 to $500,000 and, for a while, it looked that it will sell for a pitiful sum of $125,000. After some amazing work on part of the auctioneer, the bidding slowly crept up to $290,000, which is, to be honest, a hell of a lot of money for a 1990s Ferrari, but also much less than the original estimate.

So is it finally here? Are we going to see the bubble burst in the near future? I kept watching until the end, and the story kept repeating. Only one car made it past the high estimate – a custom-bodied 1933 Pierce-Arrow Silver Arrow that sold for a hefty sum of $3.4 million, much more than original estimate of $2.5 million to $3 million — but 1930s cars seem to be unaffected by the bubble.

Others, like an early Jaguar E-type roadster, sold at or around the low estimates. But most cars didn’t even get to the lowest estimate — some of them by a large margin.

The two cars that are talked about the most: the record-setting Aston Zagato and Ferrari 290 MM, sold under the estimate. Or, in case of the Ferrari, slightly above the low estimate, but only if you count in the fees, as most commentators do. If you only take the selling price itself into account, which seems logical, since the fees are not even mentioned during the auction itself and Sotheby’s website states that the estimate concerns bidding price only, without the buyer’s premium (fees), then the Ferrari sold for almost 10 percent less than the minimum price ($25.5 million vs. $28 million to $32 million range). The Aston sold for $13 million without fees ($14.3 million with fees included), far less than the estimated range of $15 million to $17 million.

Yes, the Aston’s price is still a record for a British car, but the Zagato is probably the most valuable British sportscar of the era, often compared to legendary Ferrari 250 GTO. And none of the 19 made were sold in many years – which means that the last recorded price predates the beginnings of the bubble. Even if the real market value of this car plummeted in recent months or years, we have no way to know. We can only compare what Sotheby’s experts thought it would be worth, and what someone paid for it, which is a difference of $2 million dollars.

Some other cars probably didn’t even reach the reserve price and were not sold, at least judging by the auction estimates left at the results page. Probably the most interesting of those cars was a 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL “Sportabteilung” — a racing version of the famed “Gullwing.” That car is said to be (at least by the Sotheby’s description) the best Gullwing in the world. The estimate was that it will sell for $5 million to $7 million, but the bidding ended at $4.2 million, which probably wasn’t enough for the seller.

All this could probably be glossed over as a “bad day at auction,” and it’s still possible that next big auction will bring record bids again and the show will go on. But I don’t believe that.

Last week’s auction had air of anxiety and buyers not really wanting to go for it. Looking up values of classic cars at places such as Hagerty’s will show a hockey stick in last few months, followed by a plateau. It seems that the market is waiting to see what will happen.

Which reminds me of conversation I had, as chance had it, just a day before the auction. A friend e called me and we ended chatting about his cars and their value for a while. He has a nice collection of ’50s and ’60s machinery – mostly Cadillac and other fin-tailed land yachts, but also a few sportscars, including a 300SL Gullwing. He was talking about the market going crazy after one or two best Gullwings sold for huge money ($5 million or so), driving all the other cars to stratosphere. Suddenly, even the worst gullwing was worth $1 million or more.

The million-dollar question is: what will happen when it goes other way around? When a creme de la creme Gullwing or a Ferrari 250 GTO or other car like that sells for significantly less than expected? Or two, three or five cars like that?

At this moment, the classic sporst car market has all the signs of a bubble. The value of most cars, including fairly common ones like classic Porsche 911 or Jaguar E-type, have increased exponentially in last two or three years. This can be understood with automobiles that ceased to be “used cars” and became “young timers” or “classics.” It’s easy to see why a first-generation BMW M3 has skyrocketed in price. A few years ago, E30s were the cheapest BMW around and most of them ended up beaten to death by some young hoon. Now, they’re becoming valuable — and the king of the hill among them, the M3 — is soaring upward. Even here, though, I have my reservations about the rate of its climb.

With established classics, like the aforementioned 911, E-type or any kind of old Ferrari older than 1970, you can’t explain the price hike. Those cars are classics for as long as I can remember. In fact, with me being 31 years old, those things are revered classics for almost as long as I have been alive. These exact cars were even subject to one investment bubble already, in late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1988, Zagato even used four remaining DB4 GT chassis to build more Aston Zagatos – much like Jaguar today is building Lightweight E-types to utilize the “unused” chassis numbers.

Virtues of these old cars have been known for years — even for decades. That the old 911 is one of the best drivers cars ever built is not news. It’s not a new discovery that a Ferrari Daytona and Lamborghini Miura are one of the finest pieces of rolling artwork ever made.

So what made these cars so immensely valuable? Part of it can be attributed to the culture and fashion. Today, retro is cool. Hipsters are everywhere and anything can be made stylish with some over-exposed photographs including vintage stuff, like classic sports cars. Also, everyone is talking about the “pure driver’s experience” those old cars provide, leading to popularity of people like Magnus Walker and cars like Singer-modified Porsches.

Those factors make it cool to own a classic sporstcar from 1950s to 1980s (note that the skyrocketing prices do not concern 1930s antique cars or most American vehicles, including any kind of muscle cars and land yachts – which also disproves the theory about Chinese and Middle East buyers shifting the market) and helped push the prices upward. But that wouldn’t be enough to create a bubble.

To make that happen, you have to add a lot of people looking for a place to invest their money. And after the financial crisis, cars were considered to be such investment opportunity. Unlike stocks and bonds and derivates, they exist in physical world and will probably always have at least some value. And they are much cooler to own.

At this moment, though, the market shows all signs of being overheated, while other possibilities are opening – especially with Federal Reserve finally increasing the interest rates after almost a decade.

That sets the scene for the whole thing to come tumbling down. What we need is only a few auctions with same or worse results than the last week’s auction, a few high-profile cars selling at much lower price than expected, and the classic sports cars will follow the suit of muscle cars about a decade ago.

After the high-dollar cars come down, the less expensive ones will follow. And then the cheaper ones. And even the cheap ones — the cars ordinary joe can afford — won’t come back to, say, 2005 levels, but it is reasonable to expect that the crazy prices of last couple of years will not last. That’s great news if you missed on buying your dream Alfa Romeo, MG or even a Porsche.

By the way, have you ever though about what will happen to the muscle car prices when baby boomers (currently owning most of them) get really old?

I think that the good cars for us classic car lovers are not really over yet …

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46 Comments on “Is the Classic Sports Car Bubble About to Burst?...”


  • avatar
    CoreyDL

    Ugh, don’t dress in period clothes and pose an action shot by an Atlantique, or you’ll look like a big wank.

  • avatar
    CoreyDL

    I think I pick the Daytona over the Miura if I’m choosing. There’s something slick and refined about the Daytona, and something tractor-company-ish about the Miura. :P

    I don’t think the Testarossa will ever be insane valuable because:
    -It’s not that rare of a Ferrari, they made lots.
    -It’s from a not-great time at Ferrari, generally.
    -By all accounts I’ve ever read, it’s not very good to drive.
    -It’s not that pretty (though I like it and love the louvers).

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      Agreed on all your points, except one. I’d never get tired of having a Miura in my garage. I’m only a couple million away from that now. :(

    • 0 avatar
      ExPatBrit

      A low mileage 90s Testarossa can’t be enjoyed because the lack of wear is the most important thing it has going for it. Once the miles pile up its just an old “not that desirable money pit” Ferrari.

      The other cars can be driven and it won’t make a bit of difference if you add some miles.

    • 0 avatar
      CJinSD

      The Testarossa drove pretty nicely in its day. It wasn’t exactly an NSX, but it wasn’t really a clunker either. They were one of the first big Ferraris that people actually drove in quite a while.

  • avatar
    carguy

    One of the side effects of a Wall Street boom is usually inflated classic car prices. The only thing I can see halting that is either another crash or a significant rise in interest rates to cool the equities and housing markets.

    I am not a classic car guy but classics simply bring a greater level of exclusivity than new cars and so will always be a demand by wealthy buyers looking to own something beautiful and unique.

  • avatar
    Speed3

    Without knowing much about classic car prices, I imagine they rise and fall like all asset prices, just because they may seem over valued by the market doesn’t necessarily mean there is a bubble.

  • avatar
    SCE to AUX

    Off-topic, but there are people who wonder why the Tesla Model X’s falcon doors were so hard to perfect, when Mercedes did it back in 1952 with the Gullwing.

    TTAC is that they’re not nearly as similar as they appear:

    The Tesla door is much larger than the Gullwing’s door.
    The Tesla door is powered; the Gullwing isn’t.
    The Tesla door has two hinges so it can articulate, not just pivot.
    The Tesla door has to meet 2016 standards for safety and comfort.
    The Tesla door motion is electronically managed to prevent side and top collisions.
    The Tesla door doesn’t have the awful high sill resident in the Gullwing.

    It may turn out to be one of the dumber things Tesla’s ever done, but it is distinctive. I’ve noticed that such designs are hardly ever repeated by a carmaker.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gull-wing_door

    • 0 avatar
      JuniperBug

      I’m sure that those are fair points (I didn’t even know that the Tesla has such doors), but the Gullwing’s doors weren’t meant to be a styling statement or an engineering achievement. They were a way for a post-WW2, cash-strapped Mercedes to get a race car built with limited resources. They couldn’t afford to engineer a new engine, so they had to repurpose an existing one from their luxury car. They designed a spaceframe and sleek body in order to get the most out of the compromised motor (which had to be tilted at a considerable angle to fit under the hood), and the spaceframe, while stiff and light, precluded using regular doors, because the frame resulted in a high sill. The gullwing doors were a way to deal with the high sills that the spaceframe construction resulted in.

      The doors were a result of the high sills, not a cause, and I can imagine that Mercedes engineers weren’t thrilled that they required a swing-away steering column and cutouts into the roof that made them impossible to open in the event the racecar landed on its roof.

  • avatar
    13kRPM

    Great quip about muscle car values in the post baby-boomer future. I am in my mid-30s and grew up reading Car Craft and other muscle car centric publications. As a youth I I wrenched on small blocks and big blocks and owned all the books, posters and models of the alleged “never to be seen again monuments” of automotive performance – Hemi Cudas, Yenko Chevys Boss Mustangs, etc. Now being older and wiser and having driven a lot of this late 60s iron, my conclusion is yes they look cool, but their handling and even acceleration is laughable by comparison to even many non-performance cars made today. Go look at the 1/4 time for any hemi car, pretty much nothing to write home about.

    My prediction of the post baby boomer world: Truly rare muscle cars maintain some moderate collectible value, all the rest eventually become cheap archaic monuments to the gas swilling past. Across the board a 10X decrease in inflation adjusted value. The same path that will be followed by Elvis collectibles,.

    • 0 avatar
      golden2husky

      And I’ll be there to snap one up. Actual performance is not what collectible cars are about. And not all those wine and cheese European cars stand much of a chance in a performance shootout with a modern car either. And that should not detract from their value.

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      “Go look at the 1/4 time for any hemi car, pretty much nothing to write home about.”

      A 12.5 0-100 and a 105MPH trap speed on a 4300lb car equipped with a 3-speed auto and skinny polyglas tires is fairly impressive to me.

      http://media.caranddriver.com/files/1968-dodge-charger-hemi1968-dodge-charger-full-specs.pdf

      • 0 avatar
        NoGoYo

        Yeah, a lot of those times were bad because of sluggish transmissions and awful tires.

        I know that a 1970 Olds 442 W30 could pull low 14s (maybe even high 13s) in the quarter mile with bias plies and sh*tty factory exhaust, so with headers and radials I’d expect that to drop into the 13s easily.

  • avatar
    CoreyDL

    Oh, and I wouldn’t let someone photograph my Gullwing without cleaning it first. The inside door panels are dirty!

  • avatar
    Verbal

    “By the way, have you ever though about what will happen to the muscle car prices when baby boomers (currently owning most of them) get really old?”

    Muscle car prices are poised for collapse.

    Periodically I’ll watch one of the auto auction shows on TV. They’re a continuous parade of tri-5 Chevy’s, Camaros, GTOs, Mopars, blah blah blah. The buyers universally are retired white males who are buying up cars that they remember from their youth. These guys will soon stop buying old cars and will eventually die off.

    ’60s-’70s muscle cars have no allure to anyone else. The cars themselves were under-engineered, haphazardly assembled, prone to rust, and they guzzled gas. When the first fuel crisis hit in 1973 people couldn’t get rid of them fast enough and they depreciated like mad. And they eventually wound up in the hands of cheesy-moustache, hair-parted-down-the-middle goat ropers from exurbia. The social stigma of muscle car ownership was cast.

    • 0 avatar
      Vojta Dobeš

      I disagree that they don’t have appeal to anyone else. For one, I am a 31 year old guy from Czech Republic and have already owned four 1960s US classics, and if I weren’t broke right now, I would own more.

      And I am far from the only one in my age group, even here in Europe.

      So, some interest in classic muscle cars/landyachts will stay. The market will be smaller, though, as younger guys are into many other kinds of cars (JDM, German sportscars, hot hatches, you name it) and also far less likely to buy three, four, five or a dozen of Challengers, Camaros or Mustangs just because they’re hoarders.

      The hot stuff (Shelbys, Hemis, LS6 Chevelles…) will always be crazy expensive, but I expect the “everman’s muscle car” to drop in price. Maybe 20%, maybe 30, maybe half…

      And that’s exactly the moment when I’ll be buying my ’69 Coronet R/T :)

      • 0 avatar
        rustyra24

        I see muscle car collecting dropping basically the same way the Model T crowd did. You don’t see 20-40’s cars being nearly as collectible.

        70’s Japanese cars are starting to become a thing and so are various 80’s models. It will be weird when an 80’s Camaro is collectible.

        it’s what car the collector had in their youth and when they turn 40 they have enough money to buy that car they deemed special.

        • 0 avatar
          golden2husky

          rustyra24, exactly. At car shows I rarely see more than a few brass era cars and stuff from the 40s. The same will happen for all cars as those who covet them most die off.

          Those who poo-poo muscle as poorly made and poorly engineered cars are forgetting that the rebuilt and restored cars usually the assembly issues corrected at that time. And while the brakes and suspension were crude, that was not limited to only US cars of that time. Nor is poorly fitting panels a US only problem. Pretty much anything British is saddled with ill fitting components. And frankly, non of that matters is you are into the particular car.

    • 0 avatar
      ExPatBrit

      I went a Mecum event last year, what you see on the TV is the best of those muscle cars.

      For every one of those that sells there are 20 more that don’t make reserve or are move on for beer money.

    • 0 avatar
      JuniperBug

      There is definitely a market for USA-heyday Americana. Harley-Davidson’s biggest export market is Germany, and enthusiasts’ love for American muscle spills over into neighbouring Switzerland, and I’m sure other countries, as well. For many of them, particularly those who didn’t immigrate across the pond themselves, those cars represent an idealized vision of freedom and affluence that boomer-aged Europeans from highly-organized, densely-populated, post-World-War countries fantasized about.

      • 0 avatar
        Vojta Dobeš

        They didn’t really spill from Germany to Switzerland, I would say that Swiss were into US cars first. In fact, A-body and E-body Mopars (and probably some other cars as well) were even assembled there back in the day. Also, Scandinavia is big on US cars as well – look up the American car meet in Vasteras.

        As for 20s-40s cars not being collectible, or being less collectible – that’s true, unless you count hot rods. And muscle cars are much like hot rods.

    • 0 avatar
      jdogma

      60-70s muscle cars were actually the best cars in the world at the time. GTOs, Chargers, etc., was faster than all but super pricey exotics, and they were more refined, typically with AC – a rarity in foreign cars and way more dependable than any. You could drive them coast to coast with no worries. German cars of the time were slow and lacked dependability. A Porsche 911 would not last 80k miles before a rebuild. VWs has a reputation as the dependable foreign car. It was rare for them to see 60k miles before a rebuild (I had 3). A Jaguar was a joke. Japan had nothing until the 240Z in 1969 – and that signaled the rise of Japan and the decline of US cars. I was a sports car fan with an Alfa, Lotus, and Austin Healy. When I had a long trip to take, it was mom’s 68 Charger or dad’s Cadillac.

    • 0 avatar
      NoGoYo

      I’d be very happy to get a 1970-72 Olds 442 for half of what they go for now (somewhere around 50k, I think).

    • 0 avatar
      DenverMike

      I couldn’t disagree more. My nephew was born in ’94 and at 16 spotted a dusty old ’72 Mustang Grande/351 in my barn and had to have it. Fully restored now, he absolutely loves it. Most of his friends are muscle car owners.

      Maybe it’s the muscle car rumble or presence or stance. I’m not sure. Maybe its their mechanical simplicity, pre emissions obviously.

      80’s and 90’s cars/collectibles have their appeal too, more so for me anyway (in high school mid ’80s), but muscle cars will only gain their following/fanbase over time.

  • avatar
    Advance_92

    The stratosphere stuff is one thing, but when will 80s 911s drop for the 99%?

  • avatar
    Fred

    What I don’t understand is how can a hot rod VW, aka Porsche 356, fetch up wards of 6 figures and my beloved Lots Elan can only make $50,000? I mean really, is this a $20G car? http://bringatrailer.com/2015/08/21/rust-trap-1960-porsche-356b-1600-super-project/

    • 0 avatar
      CJinSD

      Elans are up to fifty large? Usually it seems like only Lotus Cortinas can command new car prices.

      The 356 thing is ridiculous, like mass hysteria. They’re neat. They were somewhat advanced in the fifties. They were beautifully assembled. They were also not that exciting to drive, as rust prone as anything ever sold, and as timeless as a sharecropper. Very few of them are unrestored, meaning that the assembly quality that built their legend is dead and gone. I’m getting old myself, and I’ve yet to meet a woman my age or younger that thinks they look anything other than laughable. They are to bent baby boomers what expensive handbags and shoes are to confused women; they’re just for impressing their peers. Nobody else cares, and there is no other reward. If nice ones were changing hands for thirty to fifty grand, I’d think otherwise, but they’re fetish objects at current pricing.

  • avatar
    Wade.Moeller

    So what you are saying is that I might be able to afford a BMW 507 in a few years and I would only have to rob half the number of banks?

  • avatar
    stuki

    If and only if the 0.1 percenters participating in it, somehow has less money going forward. Which, given the Fed was designed to have their backs, won’t happen for some time at least.

    When Yellen finally gets her printers running well enough to debase everyone else by printing a gogool dollars and handing them all to the CEO of Goldman, he’ll pay billions for the darned things. And just think of how big that will make GDP! And since both classic cars and anything else he decides to overpay for, can easily be arbitrarily classified as “assets”, it won’t impact inflation at all!!! Modern “economics” at it’s finest…

  • avatar
    87 Morgan

    Interesting.

    My two cent speculation on the, either here or coming, crash in classic exotics follows oil prices.

    Muscle car values have been slowly deflating for quite some time so there really is no news on that subject. The pure unicorns (some obscure winged hemi car)will always maintain stratospheric prices but the rest of them tend to fluctuate along with the economy.

    I think predictions of a massive crash of muscle car values as the boomers age is a bit over stated. I get that a 70’s Mopar is really not that fast. But….nothing sounds better than a Mopar V8 with a cam. That sound is worth the price of admission.

  • avatar
    SoCalMikester

    too much “free” money floating around leads to crazy valuations of everything. fed shovels out money to banks, banks invest in crazy IPOs, chat programs sell for 22 billion dollars, so hey- whats 8 mil for a car? its only money.

    we live in a world where trillion dollar companies dont even have to make a profit. almost all stocks are overvalued, so the paper billionaires buy assets like these, and overvalued NYC real estate, hoping to sell it to *someone* eventually.

  • avatar
    trackratmk1

    As much as I’d love to imagine being able to afford an air-cooled 911 in my lifetime, I have to completely disagree with this assessment.

    Any analog style sports car with good design will age much like mechanical watches. The pre-Quartz movement watch market can’t claim to be the most accurate or reliable, but the beauty and intricacies of their wind-up spring driven mechanics win over collectors and prices are insane.

    For cars, prices are generally on the rise for Italian, German, and British classics. As you say, there aren’t any more being made. I see the trend continuing and possibly booming even more as today’s new cars continue to move towards boring, autonomous, people moving pods.

    It won’t just be nostalgia driving purchases, but honest to goodness disappointment with the lack of engagement newer cars provide. I think the market will stay strong for a long time to come… modern classics especially are becoming affordable investments as well.

    • 0 avatar
      ellomdian

      Except that, for the most part, there are only a half-dozen or so vintage mechanical watch brands that have appreciated significant value, and most of them are the old makes of designers that sell expensive timepieces today. Not to mention that for the most part, it’s not the ‘beauty and intricacies’ that are driving prices – it’s brand Fetishism.

  • avatar
    Big Al From 'Murica

    Good news for this mere mortal who wants a Porsche 912 one day.

  • avatar
    dabossinne

    Good article! I’d agree that the collector car market in general is overvalued, with certain segments, or marques (or whatever) more so than others. Whether it’s insanely overvalued (i.e., in a “bubble”) or moderately overvalued, and when this might correct itself (or burst), I’ve no idea. Only time will tell, right?

    I’m an air-cooled 911 guy, and can’t believe how values for these things have risen the last few years. Yes, they’re wonderful cars that offer a singular, viscerally immersive driving experience. But good Lord, except for certain rare submodels like the 2.7 RS, Porsche produced over a million 911s from 1965 through 1998, so they’re anything but rare. Nonetheless, people can’t seem to get enough of them and pay increasingly inflated prices for the privilege. At some point, though, the juice ain’t worth the squeeze.

    Regarding modern cars’ lack of engagement, I just disagree with this premise. Anybody who thinks this probably hasn’t driven, say, a late-model Mustang Boss 302, Cayman S, Miata, Corvette Z06, Fiesta S, Golf GTi, Subie WRX STi, or any number of other totally engaging contemporary cars. Go drive one, and do so spiritedly, and almost anything “classic” pales by comparison.

  • avatar
    robc123

    some of its about scale- easier, more profitable to restore a car that would fetch $350k than a old 70’s targa that you buy for $20k put $30k into it sell it for 55-60k and take a year to do so. Pretty lame economics, for the time and cash layout vs real estate or stocks. plus the financing is difficult unless you just buy on a credit line- but its still a ton of work for a regular 9-5 ‘er.

    the fake wood, cheap interiors, engine turned dash stickers, and chrome plated plastic going for $180k is outrageous. long term most will be banned from the streets in 15-25yrs because gas or not autonomous.

  • avatar
    stingray65

    High prices are largely driven by the greater fool theory. I can certainly afford to pay 100K for a 356 or 800K for a Daytona if I believe that some idiot will buy it from me in 6 to 24 months at a 20 to 50% higher price. When most buyers of vintage sports cars are doing it because they see them as “investments” rather than a fun hobby a bubble is sure to develop and eventually pop just as it did in the early 90s. The good part for true car people is that the bubble values also mean that many cars are deemed worthy of an excellent restorations and/or saved from the crusher and can be bought for a reasonable sum when the bubble bursts.

  • avatar
    krhodes1

    There will almost certainly be a big drop at some point, just like there was 25 years ago. And just like then, prices will eventually go back up, probably even higher. The really blue chip stuff will still be insane – once you get to MILLIONS of dollars for a CAR, does it really matter how many millions? $30M or $15M, makes no difference to all but a tiny handful of people on the planet. Realistically, the same is true of a 911 dropping from $100K to $50K. More affordable for sure, but not much more. I doubt very much that anything is going to go back to being “just a used car”, which is pretty much what old 911s were 15 years ago when you could get a decent early ’80s example for $15K or less. Just not going to happen, buy a Miata or an FR-S.

  • avatar
    Jeff S

    I doubt even the muscle cars of the 60’s and 70’s will get so cheap that they will become just an old car. When the baby boomers stop buying you still have European, Asian, and Middle East buyers with money who will buy them and keep the prices from cratering. Look at the Swedes who are scouring the salvage yards for old American cars as donors for restorations. The World population is growing with just more buyers. Muscle cars, sports cars, and even the less rare cars have a market overseas as well.

  • avatar
    HiFlite999

    I’d predict that there will be an even bigger difference between the top and bottom ends of the market that there is now. This only follows from the emptying of the middle class. The 0.1% wouldn’t be caught dead in a $50,000 ’67 Mustang yet for the bottom half, $50,000 is more than their entire net worth.

    –> The top continues or goes up in price, while the bottom 90% of collectible car market sinks like a stone.

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  • Lou_BC: “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder” I thought the quote was, “Beauty is in the eye of...
  • Lou_BC: Looks like Mexico needs to increase border security. Giving amnesty to stolen vehicles will just make the...

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