Tesla's First Battery Swap Station Opening Soon

There is also a psychological barrier for buying if you have to "lease" a battery for an indefinite period of time.

About a quarter of the Tesla batteries have to be replaced after 3-4 years. Life is easier for hybrid batteries.

Not so. Older hybrids used NiMH batteries, which are tough as nails and are not deep cycled like today's EV lithium ion batteries. Those older hybrids - and today's hybrids - can get along for many years because the gas engine gradually takes over more of the propulsion duty as the battery ages. When all you've got is a constantly degrading lithium ion battery to power your car, it's a bigger deal. My 2-year old Leaf has already lost 9% of its capacity, but this is right on the prediction curve by Nissan. They sort of expect the battery to have only 80% after 5 years' time.

@David C. Holzman Where did you get THAT piece of FUD? Tesla guarantees their batteries for a minimum of 8 years.

@David C. Holzman The figure is about 19%, not 25%.

@Pch101 Show me the verifiable data.

@Vulpine Learn how to use Google. (Here's a hint: the study was performed by a pro-EV organization.)

@Vulpine Give me the link to the specific study. I'm betting that like every other 'proof' you have offered, it refuted your argument.

@Vulpine For example: "new study from Plug In America predicts great things for Tesla Roadster battery life—at 100,000 miles, the pack should retain 80 to 85 percent of its original capacity." -- http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roadster-battery-life-study-85-percent-after-100000-miles-127733.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/07/pia-20130714.html This article was found through--guess... Google. I might note that while it states that roughly 18% of participants in the study had some or all of the batteries replaced in the Roadster, that was a total of 23 people out of 120 in the study--out of only 2500 roadsters on the road. 23 out of 2500 is less than 2%. What we don't know and what the study CAN'T show is how many total Roadsters had battery replacements or WHY said batteries were replaced. The study also notes that the Model S was NOT included in the study and that it should at least match if not exceed the expected lifetime of the batteries measured in the study--meaning in excess of 80% capacity remaining even after 100,000 miles.

@Vulpine Your Google skills are so poor that you couldn't find the actual study. (Not that it matters; you wouldn't understand it, anyway.) As for your "analysis," you've simply proven that you've never taken a statistics class. With your consistent math failures on this website, I have to question whether you've completed high school, and I see no reason to take you seriously.

@Pch101 Is this the survey? I will admit that it was very easy to find - my first Google found it as the first result. http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/tesla-roadster/PIA-Roadster-Battery-Study.pdf I don't see this correlating with any percentage of batteries having to be replaced after 3-4 years, however. What it says is that after 100,000 miles (regardless of how many years it takes to get there), the battery capacity is down 15-20%. Whether that means you have to replace the battery then is left up to you. I can see someone who uses their Roadster very little being perfectly happy with the lower capacity. I know one person who could get to 100,000 miles in about two years, and another who would take an entire lifetime of driving to get to 100,000 miles, so I can't see any requirement that a particular number of miles takes any specific number of years. I'm not sure if I understand why the people citing the survey are so unwilling to provide a link to it. If it's this one, it did, after all, take less than one minute on Google. Simply asserting someone is dumb and ignorant doesn't make him so. I suppose it makes the asserter feel better, but I can't say it makes a good impression on people like me, who are just curious to learn the truth regardless of where chips may fall. Finally, I will note that the Tesla Model S was enormously improved in every respect over the Roadster. I'm not sure if I would feel confident in using Roadster results to report on Model S battery longevity. To be perfectly blunt, in reality Model S has simply not been on the road long enough for us to get worthwhile data on battery longevity at all. So however ignorant you may feel Vulpine is, I think he is right to question this survey when applied to Model S. D

@Vulpine So again I say, Pch101, "Show me the Car Facts". The study I linked had the exact numbers you described BUT proved that the study included less than 5% of the total number of Tesla Roadsters on the road which means that the number of swaps KNOWN to that study added up to only 1% of all Roadsters. In other words, it invalidates your FUD without additional data.

@Vulpine Right. You never took a statistics class. In statistics, one uses samples to make general statements about the entire population. This is basic math that you obviously never learned -- you just weren't smart enough to get that far in your studies. What kind of buffoon assumes that all of the cars that weren't included in the sample had no problems? Answer: A buffoon like you. Did you complete high school? I'm pretty sure that you haven't. I hope that for your sake that you're a teenager, otherwise you're in serious trouble.

@Vulpine (wrong place)

@David Dennis “I don’t see this correlating with any percentage of batteries having to be replaced after 3-4 years” You didn’t read the study, you just skimmed the beginning. They saved the battery pack failures for the latter part of their report. That was not information that they wanted to highlight, given their pro-EV bias, but they did report it. "I will note that the Tesla Model S was enormously improved in every respect over the Roadster." I have no idea what "enormously improved" means. The battery technology is essentially the same, and that is the issue at hand. It is also easy to surmise why the Roadsters had problems. Tesla gets more range out of its batteries by topping them up and deep-discharging, both of which are bad for battery reliability. Tesla didn't invent the lithium ion battery, and it has to cope with the same battery technology limitations that every other automaker has. Those issues did not vanish with the Model S.

@Vulpine What kind of statistician believes that a less than 1% sample is "statistically significant?" I never stated nor assumed that none of the other 2400 Roadsters ran problem free, but without additional evidence, I will also not assume that 18% or more had battery problems, either. Even the author of the article indicated that the failures were relatively insignificant due to pointing out that their numbers came from only 23 out of a total of 2500 no longer in production cars and emphasized that those results could well be different with the Model S. You might also note that over 20x as many Model S Teslas are on the road as there are Roadsters. If the issue were as predominant as you wish us to believe, do you not think we would have heard FAR more complaints about it than we have? However, it is statistically proven that people who HAVE problems with their things tend to be much more vocal and thus make it APPEAR that the problems are more wide-spread than they actually are. There is a good chance that those 23 drivers specifically chose to participate in the study BECAUSE they had experienced problems.

@David Dennis Ah. So while you say I found the wrong study, you acknowledge that this one is the correct one to somebody else. I think we all now see where your loyalties lie--and it's NOT with the truth.

@David Dennis I did read the survey, but missed the almost offhand reference to 18.9% of packs needed replacement. Still, that was covered under warranty so is not such a bad result for the consumer. The study reported both modes, range and standard, so it seems like Tesla users who stayed in standard mode should not have had problems. Of course we don't see to have data on why the battery packs were replaced, and they do say that Tesla was very proactive in replacing the packs even when minor issues were the cause of the problem. I believe the Tesla software for charging was redone for the Model S and so I stand by my statement that even though battery chemistry is the same, the battery's overall durability may be different. Let's certainly hope so. David

@David Dennis "So while you say I found the wrong study" As I have noted in the past, you are lacking in literacy skills, too. (That isn't quite what I said, but expecting you to understand is too much to ask.)

@David Dennis "Still, that was covered under warranty so is not such a bad result for the consumer." Whether or not it was covered by a warranty is irrelevant. The point that was being made is that the technology is not particularly reliable. That rate of failure would be unacceptable for a company such as Toyota, which could not possibly get away with a 19% failure rate on a core component.

I just took a look at my L3 CHAdeMO Supercharging times. Many of them are in the 12.2 to 14.4 minute time range. Most of the time I'm fine with home charging and don't need to charge away from home. If I'm on a longer trip, I'll hit a charger just enough to top the battery up to 80% so that I finish the next waypoint/charger of the trip with as large of a margin for error as possible. On long trips I've been keeping the battery charge level between 35% to 40% and 80%. The longest trip has been about 130 miles one way. Keeping the battery in that range keeps the charging times fairly low. This morning I actually ended up staying much longer than usual at a charger. I got caught up in a good conversation while enjoying free coffee and time flew by. These charging stops aren't so bad. It's not like at a gas pump that demands your full attention. You don't have to stand next to the car squeezing a lever to pump in electrons. I usually have no problem filling the time catching up with email and taking bathroom breaks. The stop may take longer than a gas station, but if you manage the time right, it probably has less time impact than a 5 minute gas station fill.

@mcs when you use the supercharger, you're shortening your batteries' life as compared to regular length charges. As for the time you spend, you obviously have an emotional stake in your car, and that strongly affects how you view the time you spend at the charging station. That's fine; as Adam Smith is reputed in certain circles to have said, "Each cat has to maximize his own utility." But I fill my gas tank when my range has shrunk to the level yours is just after charging.

@David C. Holzman "when you use the supercharger, you're shortening your batteries' life as compared to regular length charges." I assume you have verifiable data to support that supposition?

@David C. Holzman For the project that's requiring travel far enough to require the supercharge, I'm making more than enough in fees to recover the $5500 cost of what Nissan charges for a replacement battery. One of my ICE cars had a transmission failure at 60k miles at $5,000 and another car had a dual mass flywheel and clutch failure that cost $3500. So a planned $5,500 charge isn't a huge issue for me. Also, the money that I saved over a Tesla could buy a crapload of Leaf batteries. Most of the time, my commute is 20 miles round trip to a commuter rail stop and I may set up shop 6 miles from home soon. So charging or range won't be an issue most of the time. The supercharging deterioration might be a bit overstated. Here's the result of an experiment with supercharging: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1090954_does-quick-charging-hurt-battery-life-total-miles-are-more-important And if anyone wants the data direct: http://avt.inl.gov/ http://avt.inl.gov/fsev.shtml Edit: Also, I probably should have mentioned that I will probably be using EV battery packs in some of my robots, so I have a business purpose in testing level 3 charging. For me, it's easier to sell a particular technology when I have personal experience with it.

Nice idea, but my guess is too simplistic. existence of battery swapping will fuel demand for same (depending on how many Teslas are in the area). The exigencies of storing enough batteries in swapping stations probably will dictate that you're not going to get your own batteries back--and you may not want them back anyway, if they're worn. (About 1/4 of the batters are having to be replaced every 3-4 years.) Of course, Tesla may ultimately have to charge for battery packs, according to the wear of yours, if there's anyway to quickly ascertain the amount of wear. If not, there's another wrinkle in the scheme. Which might be resolved simply by charging for batteries in the manner of cell phones.